FightLockdown Forecast: UFC 136
Author : Jack Barrington1317920877
After a long hiatus, and with an impressive looking UFC card on the horizon, the FightLockdown Forecast is back. UFC 136: Edgar vs. Maynard III takes place this Saturday, at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas, and the FightLockdown Forecasters are here to give you our breakdowns.
On today’s panel we have Jack Barrington, Chris Bailey and Ryan Robertson. Check out our takes on UFC 136’s matchups, after the jump.
Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard
Jack Barrington: We all saw their last fight, which means we should have a reasonable idea of what to expect this time around. I thought Gray Maynard did enough to deserve the win back in January, but I don’t see him having as much success on Saturday. Maynard had his chance to finish Edgar in their last fight (well, he had several), but was unable to take it. Edgar makes adjustments well and has a good record in rematches, so unless Maynard is able to land some big shots on the champ early again, I think Edgar flummoxes the challenger with his speed, combination punching and all round mobility, en route to a wide decision win. Winner by Unanimous Decision: Frankie Edgar.
Chris Bailey: Going into the second fight I predicted that Edgar would not only win but would win every round. I scored it four rounds to one for Edgar, so despite the draw I thought Edgar won and that my line of thought was essentially accurate. Nothing changes this time. They will both be the exact same fighter and Edgar is better everywhere. Maynard isn't going to be able to grind on Edgar; Maynard couldn't grind on an Edgar that was on barely conscious, and Edgar is by far the superior striker. Expect this fight to look like rounds two through to five of their second fight. Even if you were one of the guys who scored any of those rounds for Maynard, Edgar clearly looked better and won the rounds he won convincingly. There were a few toss up rounds but I thought Edgar won them all. I’m giving Maynard only a punchers chance, and I think he had that chance in the first round last time but still couldn't put Edgar away. Winner by Unanimous Decision: Frankie Edgar.
Ryan Robertson: With how the last fight went down I’d expect to see a lot more patience from Maynard this time. Edgar has proved that he has the heart and conditioning to survive an absolute beating on the feet, so I expect Gray will try to slow the fight down and use his wrestling, combined with his superior size and strength, to control and grind out the smaller, quicker Edgar. That, however, is much easier said than done. Frankie has shown a near bottomless gas tank, and while Maynard may be the slightly better wrestler, I believe that Frankie’s conditioning advantage will come into play by at least the third round, and with it the wrestling advantage will shift towards Edgar. Expect to see Gray control the first round or two, using that size and wrestling to full effect, only to have the fresher fighter in Frankie use his speed, footwork, and possibly some takedowns of his own to take the last three rounds on the way to a decision. Winner by Unanimous Decision: Frankie Edgar.
Final Forecast: Frankie Edgar defends his title against Gray Maynard, settling the trilogy with a clear decision win.
Jose Aldo vs. Kenny Florian
Jack: At lightweight, Kenny Florian was the perennial contender; good enough to beat other contenders, but destined to forever come up short against the division’s elite. At featherweight, not much has changed. Kenny has good fight smarts and will probably go with a wrestling based gameplan to try and keep this one close, but Aldo’s explosiveness and varied striking will prove the difference. Winner by Unanimous Decision: Jose Aldo.
Chris: I didn't think Florian looked very good in his FW debut, and that he was getting outclassed pretty hard until Diego Nunes gassed. However, I do think Florian has the tools to try to win a boring decision against Aldo. I don't think that’s going to happen, though. I expect Kenny to come out running away from every exchange and try to fence clinch as much as possible (similar to the BJ Penn fight). His problem is that Aldo is too good to allow this, and even when it does happen Aldo will most likely make Kenny look foolish. I am on the fence as to whether Aldo will get a finish or not -- Kenny is tough to finish, mostly because if you have any power at all he runs away from every exchange. I'll roll the dice and say Aldo via UD. Winner by Unanimous Decision: Jose Aldo.
Ryan: From beating Chris Leben on The Ultimate Fighter Season 1 at middleweight, all the way to fighting Diego Nunes at featherweight, one thing is obvious about Kenny Florian: the guy is a competitor. However, what also becomes obvious when looking at Kenny Florian’s career is the fact that he’s never been able to beat the elite fighters of his division. I don’t expect that to change this Saturday, when he faces arguably the third best pound for pound fighter in the world in Jose Aldo. When looking the specifics of the matchup, I honestly see no area where Florian would have a sizeable advantage over the champ. Kenny’s Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu may be better than Jose’s, but I feel the difference is so slight that the odds of catching any kind of sub are minimal. Not to mention, in order to realistically catch any kind of sub this fight has to be on the mat, and Florian would likely have to be on top. And while he is primarily known as a striker, Jose Aldo currently has the second best takedown defense success rate of any current UFC Champion, at 93%. So again, Kenny’s possible advantage on the mat is almost irrelevant given Aldo’s ability to keep it standing, and on the feet this is a fight Kenny simply can’t win. Winner by 4th round (T)KO: Jose Aldo.
Final Forecast: Jose Aldo impresses once more, while Kenny Florian yet again comes up short against the best.
Chael Sonnen vs. Brian Stann
Jack: Stann has looked good since dropping to 185lbs, but he’s yet to face a fighter of Sonnen’s quality and I think that will show in this fight. There is always a chance of Sonnen doing something stupid when on top and being caught by a lazy triangle attempt, but he’s far more likely to put Stann on his back and beat him up for 15 minutes. In short, no surprises, and everything stays as it already is: Chael Sonnen continues to troll most of the MMA world, but especially Brazil, and Brian Stann continues to be the most American man in the UFC. Winner by Unanimous Decision: Chael Sonnen.
Chris: Not really much to say on this fight. Sonnen is by far the better wrestler and we know his gameplan. Sonnen wins via UD, unless he finds a way to triangle himself again. Winner by Unanimous Decision: Chael Sonnen.
Ryan: Leading up to this fight, the self proclaimed “Gangster from Oregon” has been relatively quiet about his opponent Brian Stann. Now it might just be a respect thing, or perhaps Sonnen just plans on letting his fighting doing the talking come UFC 136? Given how Sonnen matches up with the former US Marine (what do you mean you didn’t know Brian Stann was a Marine?) I’d expect his actions in the cage to do plenty of talking. Simply put, Sonnen is too good a wrestler for Stann to have anything more than a punchers chance--although I suppose in a fight against Chael Sonnen the opponent would have a “triangler’s chance” as well, so to speak. Winner by Unanimous Decision: Chael Sonnen.
Final Forecast: Chael Sonnen gets the win over his fellow real American. Brian Stann thanks God in the post fight interview; Chael Sonnen trolls Brazil.
Melvin Guillard vs. Joe Lauzon
Jack: I’m a fan of Joe Lauzon, he’s a good fighter and he puts on fun fights, but this is a terrible matchup for him. Melvin’s confidence is high and, unless Lauzon gets him down early, I think he’ll impress again. Joe likes to get into brawls standing, and Melvin has too much power to brawl with. Winner by 1st round (T)KO: Melvin Guillard.
Chris: I love Joe, but I think he’s in for a hurting. He always has a chance, as Joe always looks amazing in round one, but unfortunately his gas tank sucks and he is usually a quarter of himself by round two. In this fight, though, I’m not even sure if any of that matters, because Melvin has looked unstoppable lately. If Joe gets it to the ground he has a chance for a submission, but Melvin has seriously underrated takedown defense and I don’t think Joe will be able to get it there. I expect fireworks in round one and Melvin will likely win by TKO. Winner by 1st round (T)KO: Melvin Guillard.
Ryan: This is one of those rare fights I expect to be decided in the first few minutes. Joe Lauzon is a notoriously quick starter who relies heavily on submissions to finish opponents, with the majority of those submissions coming from top position. On the other hand, Melvin Guillard is a fighter who prefers to use his speed and power to overwhelm opponents on the feet. Both, however, have shown some pretty glaring holes in their games: Melvin’s questionable submission defense (seven of Melvin’s eight losses have been by submission) and Joe’s tendency to slow down substantially in any fight that makes if past the first round. The bottom line here is that Joe needs to get this fight to the ground and get it there fast. If he’s unable to get it down in the first round then he’s going to be in for a long night against the quicker, more powerful Guillard. Expect Melvin to be a bit more cautious early on than in his previous fights, but look for him to pick it up as the fight goes on and eventually finish a physically and emotionally spent Joe Lauzon. Winner by 3rd round (T)KO: Melvin Guillard.
Final Forecast: Melvin Guillard’s power crumples Joe Lauzon in this one.
Leonard Garcia vs. Nam Phan
Jack: Everybody who saw the first fight between these two knows that Nam Phan should have got the win. How will it go this time around? Providing we have a set of judges who don’t think throwing wild haymakers that don’t even come close to landing is what wins you fights, we’ll see a slightly less wild, slightly less interesting version of their first encounter--only with the right fighter winning. Winner by Unanimous Decision: Nam Phan.
Chris: How does this fight look? Exactly the same as the first fight, except the judges will score things properly this time. Winner by Unanimous Decision: Nam Phan.
Ryan: This is a match designed to give Phan the win the judges robbed from him the last time these two fighters went at it. Leonard Garcia will come out swinging for the fences and end up assaulting air, all the while being picked apart by the more technical striker in Nam Phan. Phan may attempt to score some points by working for takedowns and top control, however I’m sure that at least one of the judges will again be mesmerized by Garcia’s constant movement and wild swings, making the decision a lot closer than it should be. Winner by Split Decision: Nam Phan.
Final Forecast: Barring yet another judging mishap, Nam Phan gets the win over Leonard Garcia that he deserved almost a year ago.
Head over to the FightLockdown Forum below and read the panel's picks for the undercard, as well as Chris Bailey's frank breakdown of the Anthony Pettis vs. Jeremy Stephens fight.
