MMA/UFC FORUM

FightLockdown Forecast: UFC 137

Following several changes to its main event, UFC 137: Penn vs. Diaz takes place this Saturday, at Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. And once again, we have three FightLockdown Forecasters here to give you our breakdowns.

On today’s panel are Brad Taschuk, Chris Bailey and Jack Barrington. Check out our takes on UFC 137’s matchups, after the jump.

B.J. Penn vs. Nick Diaz

Brad Taschuk: We've got a pretty good idea what both Penn and Diaz bring to the table in this fight, and what they lack. Penn's weakness has always been letting his opponents outwork him, which is exactly one of Diaz's strengths. However, Diaz lacks the one tool that all those who have bested Penn possess, wrestling. The difference between the first and second Edgar fights was Frankie's better mix of boxing and wrestling which kept Penn off balance. In his loss to St. Pierre and draw with Jon Fitch, wrestling was again used to tire Penn. Diaz simply doesn't have that tool, and when looking at the individual skills that make up MMA, I have a hard time picking anyone over B.J. Penn. Winner via Unanimous Decision: B.J. Penn.

Chris Bailey: A lot of people are having a tough time breaking this fight down. To me it’s pretty straight forward. Penn can win this fight nearly 100% of the time if he incorporates the correct gameplan, which is to use his superior wrestling and top control. If he chooses to only stand then it becomes a much closer fight, however, I still think Penn is the favorite standing; his boxing is better and he has much more power. Diaz may be the master of pitter-pattering fools to death, but Penn has an iron chin. If it goes into the later rounds Diaz will slowly gain an advantage, but he first round will be very tough for him as he is a slow starter. Diaz has a pretty sturdy chin, too, but it’s not uncommon for him to get rocked - previous opponents either lacked killer instinct or were scared to engage so they never followed up when Diaz was visibly rocked, whereas if Penn rocks him it will very likely be an early night for Nick. All in all, I see Penn winning everywhere; it’s only a matter of what he wants to do. I am going to go out on a limb and pick B.J. for the round 1 finish. It's really a tossup between a rear-naked choke and a TKO, so I won't bother guessing. Winner via 1st round something: B.J. Penn.

Jack Barrington: I like Penn in this fight. Diaz’ pace and length can certainly pose issues for Baby Jay, but as an all round mixed-martial artist Penn has the ability to make Diaz fight his fight. Penn has one of the absolute best top games in MMA, so if he uses his takedowns well, and doesn’t worry too much about pacing himself early, he should be able to take advantage of Diaz’ tendency to start slowly, and put Stockton’s angriest man on his back early on. Standing, Diaz has a much better shot, and has flummoxed a lot of fighters with his length, pace and deceptive power, although even there he’s not guaranteed an easy night, and will need to watch out for that winging left hook that Penn used so well against Kenny Florian. Diaz’ pace may prove too much for Penn, but I think Penn uses his offensive wrestling well here to take an entertaining unanimous decision. Winner via Unanimous Decision: B.J. Penn.

Final Forecast: B.J. Penn’s class shows here as his well rounded skills prove the difference against an always game Nick Diaz.

Cheick Kongo vs. Matt Mitrione

Brad: If you put these two fighters together, you might have one complete Heavyweight. Unfortunately that is not the case. Instead we will watch Kongo's "world class" striking against Mitrione's sloppy stand-up. If this fight goes to the ground, which given the porous takedown defense of Mitrione it very well could, we would then be treated by Kongo doing little from the top (yes his GnP was vicious against Mostapha al-Turk, but I hope I don't need to tell you why that holds no weight), and the even sloppier ground game of "Meathead". Personally, I'm hoping for another Kongo point deduction and a draw, simply because it pays +8000, but barring that, I expect Kongo to win by controlling position. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Cheick Kongo.

Chris: This is Mitrione's biggest fight to date. I think Kongo is the superior striker, but he’s also the more tentative and less busy of the two. I think Matt will be moving around a lot more and looking busier, throwing out his sloppy jab, and winning with a mediocre Frankie Edgar impersonation. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Matt Mitrione.

Jack: Kongo will throw straight punches from striking range and flagrantly deliberate groin shots from the clinch; Mitrione will throw sloppy jabs backed up by winging power shots. I think Mitrione takes at least one round on activity alone, and Kongo is always liable to have a point deducted, so I’ll take Mitrione for an uneventful decision win--and pray to just about every imaginary omniscient being I can think of, that this fight doesn’t hit the ground. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Matt Mitrione.

Final Forecast: Matt Mitrione wins a sloppy decision over a Cheick Kongo still intent on kneeing his opponent in the groin.

Mirko “CroCop” Filipović vs. Roy Nelson

Brad: At one point this was seen as a great card, but it wouldn't be a UFC card in 2011 unless it was ravaged by injuries, leaving an entirely meaningless bout like this in somewhat of a feature role. Mirko will be tentative for 15 minutes (or until his lights end up going out again), and Nelson will win this fight because of it, even though he is the "inferior" striker. I really don't have much to say about this one, other than I hope Mirko at least comes out rocking some Duran Duran. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Roy Nelson.

Chris: Nelson wins this easily. Nelson might not be the “superior striker”, but he’s not scared to be in there, unlike CroCop. CroCop will be tentative, scared and unwilling to do anything except try and defend himself as he coasts his way to another decision loss. And he will get beat up by an obese man with a beard on par with a homeless man. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Roy Nelson.

Jack: Mirko makes me sad these days. I’ll always support him, and I know I’ll always be biased enough to almost pick him to win every time he fights, but Nelson wins this fight with aggression and activity; two things CroCop has lacked for some time. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Roy Nelson.

Final Forecast: Roy Nelson wins, Mirko CroCop loses; Jack Barrington cries uncontrollably.

Scott Jorgensen vs. Jeff Curran

Brad: Scott Jorgensen is going to kill Jeff Curran. I like that Joe Silva gave Curran a shot in the UFC at his best weight, but Mr. Silva couldn't have been in the best mood, as there is almost no way for the "Big Frog" to win this bout. Jorgensen will beat him up on the feet, and then perhaps take him down to beat him up there as well. There should be bountiful amounts of carnage in this one, either way. Winner via 3rd Round (T)KO: Scott Jorgensen.

Chris: Jorgensen is clearly the better MMA fighter, and this fight won't even be close. I'm thinking Jeff is in for three rounds of punishment. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Scott Jorgensen.

Jack: I have nothing to add aside from general agreement with the first two breakdowns. Jorgensen wins the fight standing and on the ground, and if Curran lasts three rounds it will be on toughness alone. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Scott Jorgensen.

Final Forecast: Scott Jorgensen outclasses Jeff Curran in brutal fashion.

Hatsu Hioki vs. George Roop

Brad: Even when this card was fully intact, I was most excited for Hatsu Hioki's UFC debut. He is an incredibly skilled fighter in all aspects of the game, who will only be limited by the fact that his tactical approach to fighting is absolutely horrendous. Hioki's striking has come a long way in the past few years (where it was already at a point that allowed him to beat Mark Hominick in essentially a kickboxing match... which is also an example of the awful gameplanning I mentioned), so while Roop's length can be difficult for opponents, I see Hioki dealing with it just fine. The fun in Hioki fights really gets started when it hits the mat. On top, I would venture to say that his combination of guard passing, submissions and striking is unmatched in MMA. From the bottom he is equally dangerous, and this is where I see Roop failing to keep up. Winner via 2nd Round Submission: Hatsu Hioki.

Chris: Roop is going to use his reach advantage to stay on the outside and outstrike Hioki. He'll wait for his opportunity and eventually land a big shot and win via TKO... I kid I kid: Roop sucks. Hioki will do whatever he wants, and probably eventually get a takedown and sub Roop's silly looking ass. Winner via 1st Round Submission: Hatsu Hioki.

Jack: I don’t think I could take another top Japanese fighter losing to a mediocre opponent in their UFC debut. Fortunately, Hioki has the skills to win this fight anywhere. Hopefully Hioki will realise how much this fight means to me and will uncharacteristically go with an intelligent gameplan, put Roop on his back early and allay my fears by showing off that beastly top game of his, ending the fight with a submission just two minutes in. He won’t, though; he’ll make me sweat a little first. Winner via 2nd Round Submission: Hatsu Hioki.

Final Forecast: Hatsu Hioki finishes George Roop, and Japanese MMA fans everywhere rejoice.

Head over to the FightLockdown Forum below and read the panel's picks for the undercard, as well breakdowns from Brad for several of the fights.

Continue reading here.