FightLockdown Forecast: UFC on Fox
Author : Brad Taschuk1321065146
Up to this point the UFC has experienced three watershed moments when it comes to moving towards the mainstream consciousness: The Ultimate Fighter 1 Finale between Forrest Griffin and Stephan Bonnar, the rematch between Chuck Liddell and Tito Ortiz at UFC 66 which first broke the million PPV buy barrier, and then pretty much anything involving Brock Lesnar, culminating in UFC 100. On Saturday night, the MMA community hopes to add another event to that list with the UFC's debut on network television, featuring what has the makings of an epic title clash between Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos.
The crew at FightLockdown wouldn't dare leave you in the lurch on such a momentous occasion, so David Anthony, Chris Bailey and Brad Taschuk have the breakdown of what to expect tomorrow night.
Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos
David Anthony: Here is the moment we have all been waiting for, the UFC on FOX! Oh, I mean Dos Santos vs. Velasquez. I'm honestly not sold on Dos Santos' chances. He has never had to fight anyone with a great wrestling pedigree, barring Shane Carwin. Whom we have never really seen use his wrestling offensively in MMA. This fight will be a lot more exciting and competitive if Cain should choose to stand with the striker, where he should still hold a speed advantage, but I don't see him being so masochistic as to take the chance. I see Cain using his superior wrestling to put Junior on his back, eventually forcing a stoppage. Winner via 2nd Round (T)KO: Cain Velasquez.
Chris Bailey: For some reason I am just not that excited for this fight. I personally thought Cain should have been a huge favorite from the start. JDS has never really impressed me. I don't think JDS has what it takes standing to take Cain out. Cain can and will get the takedown anytime he wants. If JDS was more aggressive I would give him more of a chance. I think his finishing power is greatly overrated. He was unable to finish Nelson and Carwin despite them both gassing incredibly hard. I realize they aren't the easiest people to finish but he has never finished someone that is difficult to finish. He couldn't even put CroCop away. I just see Cain doing whatever he wants this entire fight. Winner via 3rd Round (T)KO: Cain Velasquez.
Brad Taschuk: I've been very surprised by the support that I've seen, heard and read for Junior in the past week or so. I can understand that people may have some concerns about Cain coming off of a major shoulder surgery (and recent reports of a knee injury in training), but most of those backing dos Santos aren't referencing those points, but instead the fact that Velasquez got punched twice by Cheick Kongo over the course of a 15 minute fight (in comparison Velasquez landed 261 strikes). Not only was that fight nearly 30 months ago, but it was also Velasquez's 6th pro MMA fight and his first "challenge". It remains the most mortal he has looked in his career, as he has demolished everyone he has faced since. I don't expect him to run through dos Santos as he did to Lesnar and Nogueira, but I don't think anyone at Heavyweight has an answer right now for his speed, takedowns and ability to do damage while controlling his opponent. I see Velasquez with a steady stream of pressure, takedowns and ground and pound breaking his opponent down as the fight reaches the championship rounds. Winner via 4th Round (T)KO: Cain Velasquez.
Final Forecast: Velasquez retains his belt by being the first man to stop dos Santos with strikes.
Benson Henderson vs. Clay Guida
David: In my mind, Henderson and Guida is a much more competitive match-up. It is hard to say if Guida's "hang on for dear life instead of fighting" strategy will hold up against Bendo's swagger in this battle of the hair. Henderson is as tough as they come, never runs out of energy, and has a decent wrestling game to go with some wild, but always improving hands. Clay won't be in the cage to fight. He'll be there to win, so Ben will have to shut him down completely if he wants to take the victory. It's very tough for me to call, but I have to believe that Ben is prepared for Guida to attempt latching on to Ben and ride out the fight on points. Ben stifles Guida and hurts him for fifteen minutes for making me sit through so many of his fights. Thanks Ben! Winner via Unanimous Decision: Benson Henderson.
Chris: This fight is even more straight forward. Henderson is better everywhere. Guida wins the majority of his fights by being the superior wrestler and looking active. He won't be able to do that against Bendo. Bendo will win a pretty one sided UD. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Benson Henderson.
Brad: I keep expecting nothing from Guida, and for the most part he provides exactly that for me, but still manages to pick up wins. I continue to expect very little from him in this bout, as he is essentially poorer at each aspect of MMA than the man Henderson just demolished in Jim Miller. Guida's offense consists of Willow Smith-ing on the feet, and then attempting to get as close to his opponent as possible, and never letting go. Unfortunately for him, Ben does some of his best work in tight, has the wrestling and scrambling to avoid being trapped on the bottom, and the cardio to punish Guida for as long as he wants to stick around. Hey, maybe there is something to this whole "WEC" thing after all. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Benson Henderson.
Final Forecast: The God-fearing Henderson can do all things through Christ, who strengthens him... including putting a beating on Guida for his poor impersonation of Ben's saviour.
Dustin Poirier vs. Pablo Garza
David: Pablo Garza by having a less difficult to pronounce name.
Chris: Winner via 1st Round (T)KO: Dustin Poirier.
Brad: Garza has become a bit overrated by fans because of his two flashy finishes in the UFC, but let's not forget that this is a guy who: 1) Couldn't cut it on TUF whatever number that was, and 2) Got tapped out by Tiequan Zhang in about a millisecond. He's a fun fighter, but he's not necessarily a good fighter. Screech on the other hand is solid all-around. He'll likely test out the striking early, and should that not go his way (spoiler alert: if he uses leg kicks it will go his way) he has the wrestling to take the fight down where all he has to do is be a better grappler than Yves Jabouin to take a decision. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Dustin Poirier.
Final Forecast: In the final shred of relevance on this card, Poirier uses the Scarecrow to continue climbing the ladder at 145.
Click the link below and head over to the FightLockdown Forum to see the picks for the rest of the undercard, and let us know what you think is going to go down at the Honda Pond.
