Cain via Decision (split, unanimous, majority) @ +225 on Partybets

Cain Velasquez is easily the most hyped fighter we’ve heard about in the heavyweight division for a long time. But should you be taking him at -300 he is being billed at against Ben Rothwell? The answer is a resounding NO. Cain needs to win this fight more than 75% of the time to make this bet even playable, and while I feel that he does, it’s not by enough to make this bet worth your time. There are better spots to put your money, and I’m going to explain one to you right now.

The essence of sports betting is to determine spots where the odds are not indicative of an outcome. Most of the time in mixed martial arts, we bet on individual fights for this. However, sometimes the odds on special bets are just too good to pass up, and in this case, they most certainly are. Partybets has once again graced us with ridiculous odds for these special outcomes. Cain Velasquez is currently at +225 to win on the judges' scorecards. Just to clarify, this outcome needs to occur about 31% of the time to make this a break even play, and it is my belief, that Cain winning via decision is far more likely than that. Instead, I believe he wins in this fashion approximately 55% of the time.

So why do I think this? Let us pretend that the 75% probability that Cain will win is right on the mark. In reality, it’s probably somewhere within 2-3% of this, but generally speaking, the word among sports bettors is that this is relatively indicative of the fight outcome, and thus the reason why we are not putting money on Cain just to win. Now, the real question is, out of that 75%, how often does Cain win by decision? In order for this to be considered a good bet, Cain needs to take this bout by decision about half the time, which I obviously think he does. Let's break this down a bit stylistically...

In his last fight, Cain Velasquez did a great job of getting Kongo to the ground. Kongo’s takedown defense is pretty abysmal, but it’s not like Cain is just your average wrestler. Cain is a young, athletic, two-time NCAA Division I All-American wrestler. That is some serious credentials and so far in MMA he’s managed to dominate the wrestling aspect in all his fights, including a fight with Jake O’Brien, a solid wrestler in his own right.

While Ben Rothwell’s takedown defense is better than Kongo’s, it hasn’t proven to be good enough to handle the vicious shots of Cain. Even though Rothwell does have big power standing, let's not confuse his striking ability with Cheick Kongo, who is arguably the best HW striker in the UFC.

Ben’s even been rocked by lesser strikers, such as Krzysztof Soszynski, who is average at best on the feet. Additionally, even if Ben is able to hit Velasquez solid, Cain has shown excellent recuperative ability, managing to press forward, and finish takedowns even while rocked.

If anything, it’s actually Ben’s toughness and experience that will keep him alive in this fight. Cain’s ground and pound, while being very bothersome and annoying, isn’t very powerful. This is normal for a wrestler who is very disciplined with maintaining tight control on the ground, refusing to allow his opponent the space he needs to make something productive happen from the bottom. Unless you have Brock Lesnar-sized hands, it’s just about impossible to generate serious stopping power while smothering your opponent.

We’ll see Ben regularly trying to find a spot to pop his hips out and standup. The answer to this for Cain is clear: keep tight on Rothwell. This leaves Cain hitting Rothwell with mostly arm punches from half-guard and side-control, which limits power and will likely lead the fight to going the full fifteen.

Another important contributing factor is the toughness and durability of Ben Rothwell. Rothwell has taken some of Arlovski’s best punches and survived, showing that his his chin is certainly not made of china. And while he eventually did fall victim to a flurry by Arlovski in the third round, Cain has nowhere near that level of power, standing or on the ground. This coupled with Rothwell’s experience level and his ability to keep Cain out of positions where he can put some serious weight into his punches, leaves Rothwell eating a lot of small shots, but not being finished.

A final significant, yet overlooked, point to consider is North American judging. It’s going to be nearly impossible for Rothwell to win rounds if he’s on his back for the majority of them and it seems very likely that he’ll be spending most of his time there. This method of scoring which favors top position and control, definitely plays into Velasquez's hands, which will allow him to rack-up 10-9 rounds rather easily.

All things considered, I think it’s pretty clear that Partybets missed the mark on this one. This fight will likely go a similar route to Cain’s last fight -- definitely more than 31% of the time. One last piece of advice is to get your picks in right away. Traditionally, the quantity of bets on these special bets is quite small, and thus the odds will fluctuate greatly with each incoming bet. Get your money in while the odds are hot and best of luck.