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The week leading up to every UFC event, the staff at your beloved Fightlockdown.com will offer you breakdowns of the most equitable bets on the forthcoming card. While we feel that all the fights we’ve selected are profitable bets, the ones that we feel are money in the bank shall be referred to as “Lockdowns.” So without further adieu, ladies and gentlemen, FLD presents… UFC 99: The Comeback!


Caol "Uno Shoten" Uno vs. Spencer "The King" Fisher - LOCKDOWN

UFC 99 marks the return of Caol Uno, who will be facing a long time UFC fan favourite in Spencer "The King" Fisher. The lack of buzz surrounding this fight has me slightly surprised, as I believe it has the potential to be the sleeper candidate for Fight of the Night—which would be an impressive feat considering the fact this is the most stacked card of the year (thus far).

On one hand, you have Caol Uno; a great grappler with good takedowns and tremendous heart, who has showcased improving stand-up in his last few fights under the DREAM banner. On the other, you have Spencer Fisher; a guts for glory, sprawl and brawl striker who has shown a good submission game of his own, and an inspiring amount of courage inside the octagon. Standing, I'd give the edge to Fisher who has a wider arsenal of tools at his disposal, but on the ground the advantage would certainly go to Uno, who has been on the mat with names such as B.J. Penn, Mitsuhiro Ishida, and Shinya Aoki—to varying degrees of success. So with two decided advantages on the feet and on the ground, the deciding factor in this fight lies somewhere in between, and yes, I'm talking about wrestling.

If there is one area in Spencer Fisher's game that is lacking compared to the others, it would have to be his takedown defense. This may be attributed to the confidence he has in his stand-up and ground game, but against Uno, he will want to avoid being put on his back at all costs. Why? The answer is simple; Uno is technically better on the ground than anyone Fisher has ever faced, thanks to his speed in scrambles and experience with elite MMA grapplers. Caol has been able to takedown and submit powerful wrestlers like Ishida and avoid the submissions of ground wizards like Shinya Aoki. Spencer Fisher has good BJJ, but nowhere near the level of submissions and ground control that Uno's previous opponents have demonstrated.

Fisher's best hope is to keep the fight standing, but at some point the fight will hit the ground and he will be playing right into Caol's biggest strength, as a result. Expect this to be a fast-paced fight with exchanges on the feet and technical scrambles, but unfortunately for Spencer, Uno will end up on top with all of them, likely leading him to a unanimous decision victory.

Odds for Uno in this fight:

5Dimes (+170), BetCRIS (+170), Bodog (+170), SportBet (+155), Sportsbook (+160), BetUS (+175), Pinnacle (+169), SportsInt. (+150), SBG (+170).

Wanderlei "The Axe Murderer" Silva vs. Rich "Ace" Franklin


The main event for UFC 99 is one that MMA fans have dreamed of for years, and one that will break a number of their hearts. Wanderlei Silva is hungry for a win, having only scored a single victory out of 5 of his last fights, and Rich Franklin is apparently on the menu for "the Axe Murderer." While both guys are coming off losses and are trying to find their feet again, one has to imagine that a win would mean much more to Silva, and fortunately for him, we like his chances in this fight.

Stylistically, Wanderlei has shown holes against strikers with one punch power and technical boxing, and luckily enough, Rich Franklin is no Rampage Jackson. Aside from turning Nate Quarry into a statue, "Ace" has never really shown stopping power in a single strike consistently enough for it to be considered a major threat to Wanderlei who has fought some of the hardest punchers in the sport, such as Chuck Liddell, Rampage Jackson, and Cro Cop—to name a few. Sure, it's in Wanderlei's best interest not to eat a ton of punches in this fight, but we think that his recklessness will be more affordable against Franklin.

Another reason we feel that Rich's style plays into Wanderlei's fighting mentality is the fact that Franklin, since joining up with Matt Hume, has taken preference for kicks over punches. This is a problematic approach in this fight because Silva has shown a penchant for countering kicks with two or three hooks at a time, with a single punch being enough to end man's night—just ask Kazushi Sakuraba and Keith Jardine.

Furthermore, in the past we've seen Rich Franklin struggle against aggressive strikers. In the opening stanza of his last fight, Rich Franklin was uncharacteristically outpaced and generally bullied by Dan Henderson, a ferocious fighter who has showcased stopping power in both hands throughout his career. While Wanderlei Silva isn't an Olympian with an ass-crack chin, he does have an aggressive style that Rich has shown a displeasure towards. Secondly, "Ace" has had issues with fighters who have nasty muay thai, especially of the Chute Boxe variety, with Anderson Silva obliterating Rich twice in close quarters. Although Hume and Franklin assured fans that Rich has worked on that part of his game significantly, actions speak louder than words, and if there's one man that throws knees as viciously as Anderson, it's Wanderlei.

Because this fight is the main event on the first German UFC card, we just can't see Franklin going for a 'lay-and-pray' sort of match-up, as that's never been one to bring fan admiration. Although we love both fighters dearly, we have to give the nod to Wanderlei who will be hungrier and won't be facing the same issues he has struggled against in the past. Look for a stoppage within the first two rounds in a brawl that Silva will emerge from as the victor.

Odds for Silva in this fight:

5Dimes (+120), BetCRIS (+110), Bodog (+105), SportBet (+115), Sportsbook (+110), BetUS (+105), Pinnacle(+128), SportsInt. (+105), SBG (+110).



And that does it for this edition of the LOCKDOWN, be sure to spend the money you win wisely!

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