Originally set to face Ultimate Fighter winner Efraine Escudero, Jeremy Stephens will now face Gleison Tibau at Fight Night Live: Condit vs. Kampmann.

Stylistically, this opponent for Stephens is quite similar to the one that was replaced.  Efraine presented a threat in the form of relentless takedowns, solid striking, and a very competent ground game. Not a great matchup for a guy who is primarily a brawling striker with decent takedown defense.  The odds reflected this, with Efraine being the favourite to beat Stephens at approximately -240.

Gleison presents all the same problems to Jeremy that Escudero did, except for the fact Tibau is gigantic.  As one of the largest 155lbers to ever grace mixed martial arts, he will always be bigger than his opponents.  A wrestling state champion in Brazil, Tibau has been able to bully great fighters like Joe Stevenson, Terry Etim, and Rich Clementi.  From the ground, his state championship-level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu should allow him passing at will and set up submissions.  The grappling danger that Tibau presents is very similar to the menace that was presented by Jeremy’s last opponent, Joe Lauzon.  In that fight, Stephens was unable to overcome the attack of Lauzon, as he was taken down by Lauzon repeatedly and eventually submitted.  It will be very difficult for him to make the necessary adjustments in order to match Tibau’s similar skillset.

When it comes to striking, it’s hard to not give Stephens the advantage.  He’s got some solid technique and his power can put you away at any time.  In his fight with Rafael dos Anjos, he was getting noticeably beaten for the 2 rounds then landed an uppercut of death to put the Brazilian away.  He also showed some solid cardio, which is something that Tibau may not have, given that he has taken the fight on short notice.

The fact is, Partybets has made a big mistake.  Having Escudero listed in the -240 area on other sites, they should be smarter than to give Tibau such good odds.  He should probably be listed in the area of -200, given how the styles matchup.  Gleison at -115 is just too good to pass up.

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