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The FightLockdown Forecast - DREAM 12
Written by Miles Hackett   
Saturday, 24 October 2009 14:07
Within 24 hours in Osaka, Japan, FEG will be bringing us yet another enticing MMA card in the form of DREAM 12. Not only is the card packed with a number of interesting match-ups, but the event marks the introduction of the promotion's experimental, hexagonal cage in place of a ring. It'll be interesting to see how the Japanese competitors who have never fought in such an environment fare, to say the least. Joining me in bringing you your forecast for tomorrow are Jamie Hughes, Jack Barrington, Matt Bremner, and Brad Taschuk.


Eddie Alvarez vs. Katsunori Kikuno

Miles Hackett: Kikuno's being fed to a lion in this match-up. Not only is he facing a top 5 LW fighter in Eddie Alvarez, he's facing him in a cage which is certainly advantageous to the heavy-handed, wrestling-savvy American. Expect Kikuno to employ his creepy zombie routine, which will fair because Eddie isn't anything like Dida. Look for Alvarez to aggressively take him to the mat where he'll trap Kikuno against the fence and make use of his brutal ground and pound for the stoppage. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Eddie Alvarez.

Jamie Hughes: This fight has the potential to be a very entertaining. The game-plan for Alvarez will be to push the action standing and look to pick holes in the karate-based striking of Kikuno, while also looking to keep Kikuno thinking by looking to shoot in off his strikes at varied times. For Kikuno he should look to keep Alvarez at distance when standing and look to frustrate Alvarez by throwing strikes at awkward times and using leg kicks to slow him down. If the fight gets to the clinch he should look to use his very capable throws to get Alvarez on the mat and control him if possible. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Eddie Alvarez.

Jack Barrington: I see Kikuno really struggling here, and rightly so, Alvarez wins this fight everywhere in my opinion. I see him hurting Kikuno on the feet with how Kikuno hangs that chin out, and finishing it with strikes on the ground relatively early here. Winner via 1st Round (T)KO: Eddie Alvarez.

Matt Bremner: Alvares fighting Kikuno is a really mercurial fight. I can see this being an a tactical war that consists of both guys trying to execute a gameplan, but I can also see this turning into a match of patty-cake as Alvarez paws at Kikuno who does his best to keep him at a distance and paw back. I lean towards Alvarez because he just has so many ways to win, his hands are ever-improving, his wrestling is solid and he's all around tough guy. Kikuno could easily frustrate Alvarez, but I have to think that sooner or later Alvarez is going to gain the upper hand and slap Kikuno across the face with it. I think the cage will play a role here as it changes angles for strikers, but it proves a solid surface for Alvarez to trap Kikuno against, where he can beat him up and get him to the ground. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Eddie Alvarez.

Brad Taschuk: The Bellator tournament was one of the best things that could've happened to Eddie Alvarez, he got to not only work on his ground game in the gym, but actually test it out in real fights to gauge its progression. The improvements he's made in that area of his game make this a bigger mismatch than it already was. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Eddie Alvarez.


The Final Forecast: Eddie Alvarez knows that the best way to kill a zombie is to take its head off, and he will.


Marius Zaromskis vs. Myeon Ho-Bae

Miles: I've been a fan of Zaromskis ever since I saw his ridiculous fight with Ross "the Boss" Mason, so it's nice to see him getting the attention he deserves in Japan, where it seems many of our major MMA idols began their ascension to stardom. Zaromskis completely outmatches Ho-Bae, who is clearly just being used as cannon-fodder for another fantastic highlight-reel knockout. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Marius Zaromskis.

Jamie: Honestly, I can see Zaromskis taking this fight 99 times out of 100, by using his impressive striking and high work rate to force an early stoppage. Ho Bae's best chance is going to be to land a lucky punch or to catch Zaromskis in a submission, but judging by Ho Bae’s record of going to decisions I think a decision beating is the best he can hope for. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Marius Zaromskis.

Jack: Another one sided fight here, Zaromskis will be riding high coming off his WWGP win and is the better striker in a fight I see being fought mainly on the feet. If Ho Bae Myeon doesn't fall victim to a disgusting highlight-reel knockout he can consider it a moral victory. I feel he will be disappointed, however. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Marius Zaromskis.

Matt: I think Marius Zaromskis is the best kept secret of the welterweight division. His record doesn't sparkle like GSP's, but Zaromskis is a force to be reckoned with. Ho Bae's fights have a tendency to go to decision, but if he can actually last with Zaromskis for the entirety of the fight, I'll be floored. Zaromskis is too powerful and too game for Myeon and will likely stun him with a nice hook and put him away with extreme prejudice. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Marius Zaromskis.

Brad: The fact that I had to look up Myeon Ho Bae in order to have any idea who he was does not bode well for him in this match. I still don't think Marius Zaromskis is an elite welterweight like, but he should settle into the top 15-20ish area once he comes down from the WWGP high he's currently on, and any top 15-20ish WW would handle Bae with ease. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Marius Zaromskis.


The Final Forecast: Marius Zaromskis continues his rise to stardom in Japan by crushing a delicious can.


Chase Beebe vs. Yoshiro Maeda

Miles: This is probably the most competitive match-up on the card. Both guys have only really lost to top-level fighters in their weight-class and are hungry for some consistency, which a win would certainly put them on the path towards fulfilling. Maeda has the edge standing, while Beebe is the better wrestler. Beebe is skilled on the mat, but he's not as offensively dangerous as say Rani Yahya, or Miguel Torres, so I think Yoshiro should be safe even if he's unwillingly put on his back. I expect a back and forth affair with Yoshiro scoring the most damage on the feet, while Beebe will look to control and win on takedowns, which doesn't really equate to victory in Japan. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Yoshiro Maeda.

Jamie: This is a big fight for both fighters as Beebe is looking to snap his recent winless streak and Maeda will be looking to get back on a winning streak after a patchy run of results in his last few fights. Look for Beebe to try from the start to pressure Maeda and force the takedown, where he'll attempt to slow Maeda in the opening round. Maeda should look to keep it standing and punish any mistakes Beebe makes when looking to take him down. He should also use good footwork to frustrate the American, making it more difficult to cut him off in the cage. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Yoshiro Maeda.

Jack: While neither fighter has been particularly awe inspiring of late, I still feel that Maeda's striking will be too much for Beebe, he may score takedowns but I don't see him finishing it on the mat and will take enough damage on the feet to lost a wide decision. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Yoshiro Maeda.

Matt: Considering Beebe's recent track record, I want to say that Maeda will win a split decision he doesn't deserve because Chase Beebe is as snakebit as they come lately. Unknown Joe Warren beats the pants off him in a tournament he should have advanced in, followed by a screw job to Mike Easton, it's fair to say Beebe is having a tough run. I think anyone who goes 4 with no wins can be considered as to "having it tough”. I struggled a fair amount picking this fight, but for some reason I believe the Beebe has the motivation and skill to win this fight. Common competition between Maeda and Beebe means little, both have lost to Miguel Torres and Beebe beat Rani Yahya while Maeda lost to him, but not many thought Beebe had the goods, and I'm still surprised he won. All that said, I just in my mind's eye see Beebe getting him down, controlling him and eventually submitting him. However, he'll have to make sure to stay active as the Japanese judging system does not favour simple takedowns without follow up. The cage will also likely play a role in helping Beebe's takedowns, even though both have spent time in one in the WEC. Winner via 3rd round submission: Chase Beebe.

Brad: Very intriguing Bantamweight match up here (or whatever odd weight DREAM will have these guys fight at). It wasn't long ago that Chase Beebe was the WEC BW champion, and four fights later he finds himself on a four fight losing streak (which should really be a one fight winning streak, if you watched the debacle that was Beebe/Easton). Either way, for as good offensively as Yoshiro Maeda is, he's equally bad defensively, both standing and on the ground. Beebe should be able to take this fight down and come away with a submission. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Chase Beebe.


The Final Forecast: Maeda continues Beebe's bad string of luck by adhering more to Japanese MMA judging criteria.


Alistair "Demolition Man" Overeem vs. James "The Colossus" Thompson

Miles: Easiest fight to pick on the card. Hell, I'll even describe it for you: The bell rings and Thompson bullrushes Overeem, he eats a couple punches and knees, Overeem lands a hook, Thompson crumples, followed by a glitchy undertaker sit-up. The ref stops the fight, Thompson eventually gets to his feet and disputes the stoppage with the expression of a deranged cyclops. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Alistair Overeem.

Jamie: Overeem is on a 6-fight unbeaten streak as opposed to Thompson who is on a four fight skid, and by my reckoning Overeem will make it five. I can see Overeem coming out aggressive, using his heavy hands and imposing presence to bully Thompson and force an early TKO finish. For Thompson if he is to stand any chance of victory he will have to pull out something dramatic in the opening minute as we all know he is not renowned for his cardio. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Alistair Overeem.

Jack: As strange as it may seem, this fight could actually be a step-up in competition from Overeem's last outing. That said, it still won't last long. Thompson, although big, doesn't really possess much power standing and his chin won't hold up to Overeem's barrage. Alistair embarrasses him and stops him early in the first. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Alistair Overeem.

Matt: James Thompson is known for two things, being insane and losing, essentially, by a KO via ear punch to Kimbo Slice. If Kimbo Slice can knock you out and you can't stop him, you have no shot fighting a guy who is cutting his teeth with the most elite kickboxers in the world. This is a softball for Overeem and Overeem is going to hit like Babe Ruth hit... homers. There's not much more to say on this one. Should Thompson try to do much of anything else, Overeem may bust out his life ending guillotine choke as well, but bet your money on his fists doing the talking. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Alistair Overeem.

Brad: Eventually Alistair Overeem will fight a legitimate HW opponent again, but in the meantime we get to witness him destroying guys like James Thompson and Tony Sylvester damn near every weekend (which I'm also okay with, for the record). This is an easy win for Alistair, and given Thompson's chin, I'm guessing it'll be a TKO rather than a Sub. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Alistair Overeem.


The Final Forecast: Alistair pads his record with the glass-chinned "Colossus".


Zelg "Benkei" Galešić vs. Kazushi "The Gracie Hunter" Sakuraba

Miles: As old and delapidated as Sakuraba's body is, he still has the tools to beat Galešić. Galešić's striking is fairly over-rated, he has lackluster wrestling, and I think his submission defense is still quite suspect. It'll be funny seeing Sakuraba in a cage again, seeing as the last time he fought in one was back in 1997, which was 12 years ago. Don't you feel old now? Winner via 1st round Submission: Kazushi Sakuraba.

Jamie: And if this card wasn’t awesome enough Japanese legend Kazushi Sakuraba takes on Croatian taekwondo fighter Zelg Galešić. This fight I think is there for Sakuraba to take, as long as he avoids any significant damage on the feet. I feel he has more than enough ground skill to dominate Galešić on the mat. Galešić should look to keep it standing and try and test Sakuraba’s chin. Winner via 1st round Submission: Kazushi Sakuraba.

Jack: I hear if you pick against Kazushi Sakuraba, a fairy dies. Luckily I'll be sparing that fairy's life here as Saku, while old is not as decrepit as he may seem. The legend with no knees gets this fight to the mat and shows Galešić that he may be old, but he's still a true wizard there. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Kazushi Sakuraba.

Matt: Next up we see the immortal and unbreakable Sakuraba, in case you're wondering, yes, he did just fight, and no that won't be a factor. Sakuraba is legendary for his ability to take punishment and come through it. Wandy put an epic beating on him and he kept coming forward. Zelg could drop Saku and swarm him like Manheof did, but I think it's a smarter bet that Saku's going to take another arm home with him. I expect that Sakuraba will hunt down Galešić like his last name is Gracie. Galešić has to maintain a distance and just hammer away at the granite chin of Saku, and Saku's just gotta get close, who's got the better gameplan? We shall see, but I never bet again Saku. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Kazushi Sakuraba.

Brad: Kazushi Sakuraba is back once again, and don't fool yourselves, even though Zelg is a much more game opponent than Rubin Williams, this is nothing more than a ratings grab. No matter the outcome of this fight, and the cries of MMA fanboys (like myself) for Sakuraba to retire, we will see him at least once more, on New Year's Eve. As for this fight, if Sakuraba takes him down, he will submit Zelg, if he doesn't, he'll get beaten up once again. I'm hoping for the former. Winner via 1st round Submission: Kazushi Sakuraba.


The Final Forecast: Sakuraba outclasses Galešić on the ground, while the FLD staff members cream their pants in joy.


Kuniyoshi Hironaka vs. Won Sik Park

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Kuniyoshi Hironaka.

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision Kuniyoshi Hironaka.

Jack: Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Kuniyoshi Hironaka.

Matt: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Kuniyoshi Hironaka.

Brad: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Kuniyoshi Hironaka.


The Final Forecast: Hironaka takes a walk all over the Park.


Katsuyori Shibata vs. Tokimitsu Ishizawa

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Katsuyori Shibata.

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Katsuyori Shibata.

Jack: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Katsuyori Shibata.

Matt: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Katsuyori Shibata.

Brad: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Katsuyori Shibata.


The Final Forecast: Shibata takes a clear-cut decision.


Tomoya Miyashita vs. Keisuke Fujiwara

Miles: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Keisuke Fujiwara.

Jamie: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Keisuke Fujiwara.

Jack: Winner via 1st round Submission: Tomoya Miyashita.

Matt: Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Keisuke Fujiwara.

Brad: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Keisuke Fujiwara.


The Final Forecast: Fujiwara takes a big Miyashita.


Dong Sik Yoon vs. Tarec Saffiedine

Miles: Winner by Unanimous Decision: Dong Sik Yoon. (Filho can't duck him forever... j/k)

Jamie: Winner by Unanimous Decision: Tarec Saffiedine.

Jack: Winner by Unanimous Decision: Tarec Saffiedine.

Matt: Winner by Unanimous Decision: Tarec Saffiedine.

Brad: Winner by Unanimous Decision: Tarec Saffiedine.


The Final Forecast: Saffiedine replaces Filho at the last minute and nabs the decision from Yoon.