Home Categories Miscellaneous The FightLockdown Forecast - DREAM 15
The FightLockdown Forecast - DREAM 15
Written by Miles Hackett   
Friday, 09 July 2010 11:35
Broadcasting live tonight at 3am on HDNet fights, DREAM 15 brings us yet another tantalizing night of fights. Aside from the main event, these fights may not have much impact on the rankings, but with the Japanese penchant for entertainment over all, we are likely to see some really fun bouts. Jamie Hughes, Miles Hackett, and Matt Bremner will be breaking down this event for you, so be sure to check out what they have to say, after the jump!


Shinya “Tobikan Judan” Aoki vs. Tatsuya “Crusher” Kawajiri

Jamie Hughes: Aoki/Kawajiri is a fight that has been talked about on most MMA forums for a few years. Here, we have the protagonist Kawajiri with his fan-friendly style and knockout power taking on the loved and despised antagonist, Shinya Aoki, with his dangerous and unorthodox submission game. I think Kawajiri has the stand-up to stop Aoki and also I think he can survive on the ground with Aoki and resist his submission game. Expect a ‘crushing’ victory for Kawajiri. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Tatsuya Kawajiri.

Miles Hackett: As Jamie foregrounded, these men have been on a collision course ever since the death of PRIDE FC. The biggest difference between Aoki and Kawajiri, in my opinion, is that Aoki has been consistently fighting top competition. Kawajiri has “crushed” plenty of cans and an unrecovered JZ, which may have made his technical improvements (especially on the ground) look greater than they actually are. Standing, Kawajiri has the edge, but I think he might try to make a point by beating Aoki on the ground which is a huge mistake. Aoki’s takedowns and overall style are much better suited to the ring and I think we’ll see him return to form with another swank submission. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Shinya Aoki.

Matt Bremner: Tatsuya Kawajiri is probably the least respected lightweight that has incredible talent. He's as gifted as anyone in the division, but has never gotten that recognition. He was on the cusp of international recognition when he ran into the force of nature that was Takanori Gomi, in this fight, he looks to right that and stake his claim. He meets the human torture rack Shinya Aoki, who you can just never count out of a fight. Aoki's modus operandi is the same as always, get a guy on the ground, try to rip off a limb. However, in Kawajiri he meets someone with better hands and better wrestling. Kawajiri also has solid jiu-jitsu, but definitely not on the level of Aoki's. Aoki has the equivalent of a puncher's chance here, that Kawajiri makes a mistake and Aoki taps him with it, but I mostly expect Aoki to get beaten up on the feet and then when he flops to his back, Kawajiri will just ignore him, and make him get up. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Tatsuya Kawajiri.


The Final Forecast: Kawajiri finally lives up to his fans expectations by pummelling Aoki into unconsciousness.


Mitsuhiro “The Endless Warrior” Ishida vs. Daiki Hata

Jamie: I expect this to be a pretty one-sided affair. I think Ishida will be intent on a giving a dominant performance to put himself back in the winning column. It may not be pretty, but it’ll do. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Mitsuhiro Ishida.

Miles: I’m very interested in seeing how Ishida performs as a FW, seeing as he’s done admirably as a smaller lightweight fighter. Ishida’s cardio and scrambling skills are always a treat to watch and I think that his new found strength at featherweight will benefit him greatly.  I wouldn’t be shocked if he manages to pick up a submission win, but I will go the safest route with this prediction. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Mitsuhiro Ishida.

Matt: Ishida is a human electric blanket dipped in water, if you're under it, you're in deep trouble. Hata has never been anything even remotely special off his back and Ishida has no problems getting guys to their back. Expect him to get this fight to the ground and absolutely smother the life out of Hata who will try, to no avail, to get some offense rolling. This isn't going to be talked about fight of the year, or the night, or maybe even the hour, but expect Ishida to get it done and climb his way back up the featherweight ladder after dropping back to back fights. Ishida's only concern here should be ring rust, as it’s been almost a full year since he last threw down. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Misuhiro Ishida.


The Final Forecast: Ishida smothers Hata for the duration of a very lopsided contest.


Gesias “JZ” Cavalcante vs. Katsunori Kikuno

Jamie: Finally, Gesias ”JZ” Cavalcante returns to action and against the exciting former DEEP champion, Katsunori Kikuno. I will keep this simple; if JZ comes in looking anything like the killer he was before the knee injury, he walks through Kikuno. But if he shows any signs of ring rust, Kikuno has the ability to capitalize. At the end of the day, I think JZ’s well rounded game results in an almighty beating for Kikuno, who will endure the wrath of JZ’s fourteen months of frustration on the sidelines. Winner via 1st round Submission: Gesias Cavalcante.

Miles: I always dread it when fighters return from long layoffs, especially when it is related to knee injuries. JZ Cavalcante has all the potential in the world to be great, but if he’s returning to action in poor condition again, he could very well lose to Kikuno. Kikuno, the zombie rapist, takes a lot of fighters out of their element simply because of his stance. As a striker he is a formidable task for JZ, but I think that once the fight hits the ground, he will be playing in the Brazilian’s world. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Gesias Cavalcante.

Matt: JZ was once touted as possibly the best lightweight in the world, oh how the mighty have fallen. Cavalcante actually hasn't won a fight in almost three full years. He should have beaten Aoki at DREAM 1, but Aoki pulled out his drama queen mask and whined until the fight was declared a ‘No Contest’. He meets Katsunori Kikuno, a karate fighter with only two losses and eight bodies left on the floor in his fights. Unfortunately for Kikuno, to win this fight, he has to stay upright, and I just don't see that happening. JZ will probably strike with Kikuno for a little bit, but the second he doesn't like the way the winds are blowing, this fight's going to the ground, where Kikuno won't be able to survive. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Gesias Calvancante.


The Final Forecast: JZ returns to action with a win over the somewhat overlooked Kikuno.


Gegard Mousasi vs. Jake O'Brien

Jamie: This is definitely a winnable fight for Mousasi, but O'Brien will be a decent measuring stick to see how he has worked on his takedown defense since his loss to Mo Lawal. I can see Mousasi stuffing the early takedown attempts of O'Brien, then finding his range standing and finishing in impressive fashion. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Gegard Mousasi.

Miles: I like this match-up because it will show us what kind of adjustments Mousasi is capable of making to his game against competition that favors wrestling. As I’ve stated many, many times on the forum, I felt Mousasi’s attitude and gameplan in the Lawal fight were his biggest faults. He gave takedowns too freely (although some he probably wouldn’t have been able to stuff anyway) and was far too complacent off his back. Rodriguez is no Mo Lawal, but I think that Mousasi will force him to work a lot harder for the takedowns than Mo ever had to. Look for Mousasi to be aggressive standing and off his back (if he is put there), getting a late stoppage when Ricco’s pace has noticeably slowed. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Gegard Mousasi.

Matt: Word on the street at the time of this piece is that Jake O'Brien won't be fighting, so I'm going to write this breaking down match ups for Mousasi with O'Brien or Ricco Rodriguez, the rumoured replacement. The God's honest truth is, in a handicap match, I'd still lean toward Mousasi. Ricco's a great grappler, but he couldn't even win his battle with funyans, how's he supposed to beat someone who fights back? The same goes for O'Brien, who yes, can wrestle and yes, Mousasi had no answer for King Mo's wrestling, but here's the obvious: O'Brien can't wrestle like King Mo. King Mo was seconds from going to the Olympics, O'Brien couldn't even buy a ticket to go to the Olympics. Eventually, against either fighter, Mousasi's going to find an opening, unleash some strikes, drop either fighter and then quickly dispatch them on the ground. I expect he'd finish Ricco faster than he'd finish O'Brien though, as he may struggle with O'Brien for a round. Either way, Mousasi restores some of the faith the world lost in him when King Mo beat him. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Gegard Mousasi.


The Final Forecast: Mousasi bounces back from the loss of his Strikeforce title with a trouncing of Jake O'Brien.



“Marvellous” Melvin Manhoef vs. Tatsuya Mizuno

Jamie: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Melvin Manhoef.

Miles: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Melvin Manhoef.

Matt: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Melvin Manhoef.


The Final Forecast: Manhoef makes very short work of Mizuno.


Kazuhiro Nakamura vs. Karl “The Psycho” Amoussou

Jamie: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Karl Amoussou.

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Kazuhiro Nakamura.

Matt: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Kazuhiro Nakamura.


The Final Forecast: Kaz-Nak takes down, controls, and out-grapples Amoussou for a decision.


Michihiro Omigawa vs. Jong Young Sam

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Michihiro Omigawa.

Miles: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Michihiro Omigawa.

Matt: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Michihiro Omigawa.


The Final Forecast: Omigawa makes Sam’s DREAM debut feel like more of a nightmare.