Home Categories Miscellaneous The FightLockdown Forecast - Dynamite NYE 2009!! (mma fights only)
The FightLockdown Forecast - Dynamite NYE 2009!! (mma fights only)
Written by Miles Hackett   
Wednesday, 30 December 2009 20:18
Well, it’s here, the end of the year. As always, the Japanese tradition of putting together epic New Year’s Eve cards comes to fruition, and boy, are we ever being treated. DREAM vs. WVR match-ups galore, and you know what that means? Fanboys raging on the interwebz, and yes, yet another forecast – please ignore the relation between those two. On the panel today are Jamie Hughes, Joshua Taylor, Brad Taschuk, David Anthony, and Miles Hackett, who hope to give you an idea of what to expect tonight.





Hidehiko Yoshida vs. Satoshi Ishii

Jamie Hughes: In a battle of Olympic Judo Gold Medalists, Satoshi Ishii makes his long awaited MMA debut against former Pride veteran, Hidehiko Yoshida, in what could be an epic battle of throws and takedowns. Could, but likely won’t, as these types of match-ups generally end up as slugfests. In this fight we get to see how well Ishii's judo credentials will translate to MMA, he has a favourable opponent in Yoshida, who really has not had a solid win since Mark Hunt way back in 2004. If Ishii had developed a decent stand-up game in the past year of training for MMA, I can see him taking this fight. However, if it turns into a brawl, I might fancy Yoshida to have a better chance. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Satoshi Ishii.

Joshua Taylor: In a fight which means nothing in terms of standings, but everything in terms of Japanese viewership, we have old school vs. new school. You would hope with two Judo players that we would have some great throws and such, but usually that isn’t the case as we are more likely to see a striking battle and based on Ishii being younger, fresher, and training with a better camp, I see him getting the better of exchanges early and putting Yoshida away. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Satoshi Ishii.

Brad Taschuk: Now this match is one that hearkens back to the glory days of New Year’s Eve cards, when it was not uncommon for PRIDE to bring in Olympic Gold medalists for one-off fights to make Japanese stars look good (re: Kurtanidze, Eldari and, even though it didn’t go to plan, Rulon Gardner). However, this time around Japanese MMA doesn’t have the market it once did, so two Japanese stars are going head-to-head. Personally, from what I’ve seen and read from Satoshi Ishii, it seems like his transition to MMA isn’t going very smoothly, and he’s facing a very tough fight ahead of him in Hidehiko Yoshida. I expect Yoshida to use his more well-developed MMA game to make life difficult for Ishii, but the old dog simply will not be able to overcome the physical advantages that Ishii brings into this fight. For the sake of Japanese MMA moving forward, hope for Ishii’s success. Winner via Unanimous Deicision: Satoshi Ishii

David Anthony: This is a good opponent for Ishii to fight. This is also possibly a battle of the two most legitimately scary looking Asian martial artists. Seriously, you would not want to be in a bar brawl involving either of these fellows. But the fact is, Yoshida has dropped fights to the likes of James Thompson. Then again, he has also been in there with guys like Barnett and Cro Cop, so he knows how to handle the big stage in MMA. I think this turns into a grappling match featuring a few delicious throws and Ishii earning his first MMA victory. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Satoshi Ishii.

Miles Hackett: This should be a ratings monster. It’s always hard to gauge a fighter’s debut in MMA, because there is so little that we can see for ourselves in their preparation. Ishii has fought on the biggest sporting stage in the world (the Olympics) and he’s not entirely out of his element, as this is still a martial arts setting, so I don’t think nerves will be much of a factor. Yoshida reminds me of Tsuyoshi Kohsaka towards the end of his career, performing against larger men, absorbing more punishment than necessary, and surviving with truckloads of heart. Look for a stand-up fight, but should it go to the ground, expect Ishii to be the one ending-up on top. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Satoshi Ishii.


The Final Forecast: Yoshida passes the torch down to Ishii, who will hopefully inspire a resurgence of Japanese interest in MMA.


“The African Assassin” Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou vs. Ikuhisa “Minowaman” Minowa

Jamie Hughes: On paper this fight should be an easy fight for Sokoudjou, but if this fight does go to the ground the ever crafty Minowa is always dangerous and after seeing his run to the final, who would be surprised if Minowa pulled off another leg lock upset? Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou.

Joshua Taylor: In the GP that was almost tailor made for Minowaman we are finally and thankfully at the finale where he will actually take on a semi-solid opponent in Sokky. While I could absolutely see him surviving a barrage of punches early and getting this to the ground and working a sub, I don’t think it’s likely. Sokoudjou will know where his strength lies and will remain calm and collected until he has Minowa hurt and then he will pounce for the finish. Winner by 1st round (T)KO: Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou.

Brad Taschuk: One of the most awesome joke tournaments ever comes to a head with a completely irrelevant matchup. Sokoudjou holds significant advantages in every physical category, and will want to keep this one on the feet to punish everyone’s favourite MMA superhero. Minowaman (!!!) should look to employ the Imanari special, and just constantly dive for leg-locks, hoping he catches one. I think Sokoudjou’s fists stand a better chance of catching his opponent in the face first though. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou.

David Anthony: Tough fight to call. Sokky is a beast standing. And unfortunately for Minowa, he is not ten feet tall and seven hundred pounds. It's been so long, I have no idea how Minowa will fare against a normal sized human being. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Minowa makes it through the early flurry and takes advantage of an inevitably gassed Sokoudjou in round 2. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Minowaman.

Miles Hackett: I feel like I’m going to get the Joan of Ark treatment for what I’m about to say. I’ve had a nagging feeling in my gut ever since the Super Hulk tournament began that it was fixed. With Eastern MMA’s controversial history of protecting and fixing the fights of Japanese pro-wrestlers turned MMA fighters, I believe there is reason to be suspicious of Minowaman’s arrival in the finals. Nogueira struggled to put Bob Sapp on his back, but Minowa did it with ease, despite giving up even more weight. The Choi fight was even more bizarre, with yet another submission win – something Fedor Emelianenko struggled more to achieve. Enter Sokoudjou. The clear favourite to win the whole thing, is facing the Goliath-killer loved by all of Japan for his mullet, Shang Tsung facial hair, and tight red speedo. The Super Hulk tournament just seems like it was conceptualized with Minowa in mind. I’d like to be wrong about this, but I see another staged upset, one that will increase Minowaman’s star status, and make him the freakshow champion that he deserves to be. Winner via 1st round Submission: Minowaman.


The Final Forecast: Minowaman’s dreams of becoming the MMA world’s Official “Super-Hulk” are shattered by the hands of the “African Assassin”.


“Marvellous” Melvin Manhoef vs. Kazuo “The Former-Grabaka Hitman” Misaki

Jamie Hughes: If this fight stays standing Manhoef has the overwhelming advantage in the striking department and it will only take one clean shot to put Misaki away. That said, Misaki is hard work to finish, and if the fight hits the ground the tables turn with Misaki having a major advantage in the grappling department. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Melvin Manhoef.

Joshua Taylor: One of the fights I am most excited for, where each fighter has a clear route to victory. The difference, in my opinion, is that Misaki has the skills to stay standing for a while with Melvin, whereas Melvin does not have the skills to remain on the ground for long with Kazuo. While Misaki’s striking is nowhere near as powerful or technical as Melvin’s, he does have the ability to remain on the outside with leg kicks to frustrate Manhoef and slow him down. Eventually I see him working this fight to the ground and working for a choke. Winner via 1st round Submission: Kazuo Misaki.

Brad Taschuk: We all know that Melvin Manhoef’s power is capable of putting down a Rhinoceros, and that cannot be ignored in any of his fights, but we also know that once on the ground Melvin looks like he belongs in UFC 1, rather than in MMA closing out the year 2009. Misaki’s skill-set makes him more than capable of capitalizing on his obvious route to victory in this fight, with a lot of movement and weird angles on the feet, a solid chin and decent takedowns. Basically, what needs to happen for this fight to go Manhoef’s way is that someone needs to kidnap him, take him to Brazil and make him forcibly partake in BJJ classes for the better part of a year. Winner via 1st round Submission: Kazuo Misaki.

David Anthony: As an extremely biased fan of Manhoef, I have trouble picking this fight objectively. Melvin has zero skill on the ground. Despite the fact that Misaki doesn't have nearly Melvin's level of skill standing-up, he could survive in Melvin's world longer than Melvin could survive in his. But, in my heart of hearts, I believe Melvin has finally realized that without TDD, there is no reason for him to continue fighting in MMA. He will come into this fight a little bit better prepared to keep the fight standing and knock Misaki out. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Melvin Manhoef.

Miles Hackett: Misaki’s striking is very unorthodox, specifically his movement, which is complemented by his speed. Look for him to throw from the outside, while Melvin comes in aggressively, which will create the opening for Misaki to get the fight to the ground. Look for an armbar to end this fight, as Melvin still has no idea how to defend/avoid one. Winner via 1st round Submission: Kazuo Misaki.


The Final Forecast: Misaki benefits from Melvin Manhoef’s refusal to develop a ground game, getting the quick submission.


Shinya “Tobikan Judan” Aoki vs. Mizuto Hirota

Jamie Hughes: Aoki enters this fight with the bigger name and is regarded by many as a top 3 lightweight in the world and in this fight he will look to get it down and use his fantastic and unique submission skills. That’s no easy task against a very tough fighter in Hirota, who posses knockout power and has recent wins over two very good fighters in Kitaoka and Ishida. I am going to call the upset and tip Hirota to finish the DREAM lightweight champion. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Mizuto Hirota.

Joshua Taylor: Easily the most relevant fight on the card with two top 10 LW’s partaking in a champion vs. champion match-up. I never have and never will be a fan of Aoki, which is why I personally am not overly excited for this battle, but I find myself constantly frustrated/impressed by Aoki’s ability to win fights I think he should lose. Hirota has lots of power and if he connects, he can put Aoki away, but this time I am not betting against the magic pants. I think Aoki will be able to drag this to the ground with his suction cup legs and work a submission after frustrating Hirota for a few minutes. Winner via 1st round Submission: Shinya Aoki.

Brad Taschuk: The most relevant of all the DREAM vs. Sengoku matches pits #2 LW Shinya Aoki against FLD’s #11 LW Mizuto Hirota. This match becomes interesting because of Hirota’s success against Satoru Kitaoka, who employed a style very similar to what Aoki is likely to make use of in this fight. The differences, however, are that Aoki is a better finisher on the ground than Kitaoka, who had Hirota in several tough spots, and Aoki has a far better gas tank than Satoru. These two things will lead to Aoki to be able to do what Kitaoka couldn’t, which is either finish Hirota or not gas on the way to a decision. Winner via 1st round Submission: Shinya Aoki.

David Anthony: This is a very cool fight. I love that some organizations are willing to pit their champion against another promotion's champion. Too bad a certain American promotion is too good for such awesomeness. Anyway, Aoki is just too dangerous grappling to count of any fight. I think that Hirota will find that Aoki's subs are more dangerous than Kitaoka's and he will have a short night, although I won't be completely surprised if Aoki ends-up unconscious on the canvas before that happens. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Shinya Aoki.

Miles Hackett: Brad was on the money when he compared this match-up to Kitaoka/Hirota, but he was even more on the mark by pointing out the difference between Aoki and his teammate. Although Aoki’s takedowns and wrestling may not be on the level of Kitaoka, he has a more diverse assault than leg-locks, which will have made preparation for Hirota, all the more difficult. I won’t be shocked if Hirota manages to keep the fight standing and avoids most of Aoki’s submissions, but Shinya works his best magic on New Year’s Eve cards, and I think is onslaught of submissions attempts on the ground will eventually pay-off. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Shinya Aoki.


The Final Forecast: Aoki tangles Hirota in a web of legs and arms, catching the WVR champion some time in the second round.


Hideo Tokoro vs. Jong Man Kim

Jamie Hughes: Seeing as Sandro is out and it’s on late notice, which is not surprising – considering current trend of MMA in 2009, I can see Tokoro beating Jong Man Kim without too much trouble, more specifically, a late stoppage. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Hideo Tokoro.

Joshua Taylor: In a very unfortunate occurrence, Marlon Sandro has had to pull-out of this bout, but has been replaced with Jong Man Kim. Kim is a very interesting fighter as he holds wins over Hioki and Atsushi, and has fought to draws with Maeda and Hoshino, yet he hasn’t won a fight in his past seven and has won only one in his past 11. Both fighters like working for the submission though, so this should be an exciting battle and I see Tokoro taking a decision. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Hideo Tokoro.

Brad Taschuk: With Marlon Sandro out of the picture, this becomes a far less intriguing fight. Hideo Tokoro benefits greatly though, as Kim is a far less challenging fight than Sandro. Tokoro has looked his best recently, while other than an odd win against Hatsu Hioki, Kim hasn’t looked good since taking the entire year of 2006 off. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Hideo Tokoro.

David Anthony: It seems Sandro has been replaced with Jong Man Kim who is 0-5-2 in his last seven. Hmmm... Winner via 1st round Submission: Hideo Tokoro.

Miles Hackett: Absolutely crushed that Sandro has to pull-out of this fight, but this should end-up being an exciting grappling match, nonetheless. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Hideo Tokoro.


The Final Forecast: Tokoro lucks out with Sandro’s last minute replacement, gaining a win instead of a loss on his record.


Michihiro Omigawa vs. Hiroyuki “Streetfight Bancho” Takaya

Jamie Hughes: In another Featherweight bout that is bound to produce fireworks, the always entertaining Hiroyuki Takaya takes on Michihiro Omigawa who is coming off a split decision victory over Hatsu Hioki. I can see this being an all out war, as both men favour fighting on the feet, and I feel in a brawl Takaya has the edge. Omigawa should look to mix things up by drawing Takaya in and then shooting in during the exchanges, and I’m certain there will be many. Winner via Split Decision: Hiroyuki Takaya.

Joshua Taylor: Another fantastic Featherweight battle between Takaya and Omigawa. Michihiro has been on an improbable run as of late as has taken a couple of well deserved wins, as well as a couple of undeserving ones. I am hoping for an all out war, as we know Omigawa will stand and trade even when it’s not in his best interest. Takaya should have a striking edge and I see much of the fight being played out there with Michihiro mixing in the occasional takedown attempt. Takaya should come out on top in the end, but you never know with judges these days. Let’s just count ourselves lucky that this contest will have DREAM judges rather than Sengoku ones. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Hiroyuki Takaya.

Brad Taschuk: This match pits the two FWGP runners-up against each other, in what should prove to be an entertaining affair. The biggest difference between these fighters is that one deserved to be in the final of his GP (Takaya) while the other was gifted his position. Realistically, even though Omigawa is 2-1 in his last three fights, he should be coming off of three consecutive losses. Despite the advancement Michihiro has made in his game, he is still at a big disadvantage on the feet, and Takaya should have to tools to keep the fight there for long enough to garner the decision nod. However, given Omigawa’s recent track record, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him get a decision nod if the fight even resembles being close. Winner via Split Decision: Hiroyuki Takaya.

David Anthony: This is an awesome fight and it is hard for me to call. I foresee a lot of leather being exchanged with Takaya getting the better of the two men. Winner via Split Decision: Hiroyuki Takaya.

Miles Hackett: I love these co-promoted cards and I hope we see more of them in the future between World Victory Road and DREAM, and this fight shows a true benefit of co-operation; an exciting match-up for the fans. Both of these fighters are game, aggressive, and skilled, but entering this fight, I believe Takaya’s had a slightly more impressive run. Omigawa is always exciting, but sometimes at the cost of being intelligent, that’s problematic when fighting a FW with the power of Takaya. Unless Michihiro uses his strength and skilled control to maul Takaya on the ground, he’s going to be on the losing end of exchanges. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt though, believing he can make it to the judges – who won’t be able to save him this time. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Hiroyuki Takaya.


The Final Forecast: “Streetfight Bancho” outslugs Omigawa in a surefire contender for brawl of the night.


Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto vs. Masanori Kanehara

Jamie Hughes: And rounding out the amazing list of featherweight bouts, Japanese superstar and crowd favorite Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto takes on Sengoku featherweight champion Masanori Kanehara. Hopefully this fight will answer the questions that many Yamamoto fans (like myself) have, such as “Is he fully recovered from his injuries and ready to perform like the fighter of old?” Here, “Kid” is up against a big strong featherweight in Kanehara, who has proven himself as a top featherweight in his run to the title in the Sengoku FWGP. If Yamamoto fights like even the shade of the fighter he was 3 years ago he takes this fight all day, but if he is still not 100% fit and healthy, Kanehara could pull it off. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Kid Yamamoto.

Joshua Taylor: Kanehara doesn’t possess high level wrestling, whereas Kid comes from a wrestling background, so I think Yamamoto will be able to use a sprawl and brawl mentality to keep this fight on the feet – where he has the best chance of winning. Yamamoto has explosive and sharp striking, but he is primarily a boxer so he will need to get in close to utilize these skills and be able to maximize the damage he inflicts. I see him coming out aggressive early and landing to gain the upper hand. Once he has Kanehara off balance, I think he will keep the pressure on and control the pace of the fight. Masanori has a solid chin and tons of heart though, so I don’t think it will end quickly. He has shown he can take punishment and keep coming, so it will likely be war. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Kid Yamamoto.

Brad Taschuk: How weird is it that Kid is one of the first fights on a card featuring the lighter weights rather than in his normal main event status? Kid doesn’t even get a softball in this fight, as he takes on the Sengoku FW Champion and GP winner (even though he lost to Hioki), Masanori Kanehara. Once again, Kid is outsized in this fight, but unlike what his downfall in the Warren fight was, he holds a significant wrestling advantage here. Look for Kid to test Kanehara’s chin early, and if the striking doesn’t go his way, he has the option of taking the fight down at any point, where Kanehara doesn’t pose a huge threat off his back. It would not be out of the realm of possibility for Kanehara to keep the distance, and leg kick his way to victory though. Something to look for in the future is how Kid deals with constantly being at a size disadvantage to ever improving fighters. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Kid Yamamoto.

David Anthony: I believe Kid is coming into this fight ready for war. Kanehara is a legitimate opponent, but I think Yamamoto takes this: picking a very tough Kanehara apart and mauling him all the way to a decision. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto.

Miles Hackett: Kanehara’s toughness has really impressed me in his last few Sengoku fights, but I think that, and his size advantage, are all he has entering this fight. Not only is Kid the better striker, but he has the superior wrestling, which will allow him to dictate just where this fight takes place. Coming off two losses (one in K-1, the other in MMA), I expect Yamamoto to come back aggressively, looking to redeem himself and his rabid Japanese fans. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Kid Yamamoto.


The Final Forecast: Kid returns to the winner’s circle, 15 year old girls and various FLD forum members scream in tear-filled jubilation.



Kazuyuki “Iron Head” Fujita vs. Alistair “the Demolition Man” Overeem

Jamie Hughes: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Alistair Overeem.

Joshua Taylor: Winner via 1st round Submission: Alistair Overeem.

Brad Taschuk: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Alistair Overeem.

David Anthony: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Alistair Overeem. (WAR HORSE MEAT!)

Miles Hackett: Winner via 1st round Submission: Alistair Overeem.


The Final Forecast: “The Demolition Man” caves in an “Iron Head”, probably with some knees.


Hayato “Mach” Sakurai vs. Akihiro Gono

Jamie Hughes: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Hayato Sakurai.

Joshua Taylor: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Hayato Sakurai.

Brad Taschuk: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Hayato Sakurai.

David Anthony: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Hayato Sakurai.

Miles Hackett: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Hayato Sakurai.


The Final Forecast: Sakurai takes time away from making pornos, instead making Gono his bitch.


Katsuyori Shibata vs. Hiroshi Izumi

Jamie Hughes: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Katsuyori Shibata.

Joshua Taylor: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Hiroshi Izumi.

Brad Taschuk: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Katsuyori Shibata.

David Anthony: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Katsuyori Shibata.

Miles Hackett: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Katsuyori Shibata.


The Final Forecast: Shibata’s experience exploits Izumi’s lack thereof.


Tatsuya “Crusher” Kawajiri vs. Kazunori Yokota

Jamie Hughes: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Tatsuya Kawajiri.

Joshua Taylor: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Tatsuya Kawajiri.

Brad Taschuk: Winner via 1st Round (T)KO: Tatsuya Kawajiri.

David Anthony: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Tatsuya Kawajiri.

Miles Hackett: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Tatsuya Kawajiri.


The Final Forecast: Kawajiri spoils Yokota’s impressive 2009.


Gegard Mousasi vs. Gary “Big Daddy” Goodridge

Jamie Hughes: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Gegard Mousasi.

Joshua Taylor: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Gegard Mousasi.

Brad Taschuk: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Gegard Mousasi.

David Anthony: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Gegard Mousasi.

Miles Hackett: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Gegard Mousasi.


The Final Forecast: “Big Daddy” gets beaten up worse than Adam Sandler’s film of the same title was by the critics.