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The FightLockdown Forecast - Strikeforce: Emelianenko vs. Rogers
Written by Miles Hackett   
Friday, 06 November 2009 18:17
Tomorrow evening from the Sears Center in Hoffman, Illinois, Strikeforce is bringing to MMA fans arguably the most stacked card of the year. Giving you your forecast for this potentially exciting event are the following pickers:

Miles Hackett (36-18, 66.7%)
Jamie Hughes (30-15, 66.7%)
Jack Barrington (19-9, 67.9%)
Joshua Taylor (13-5, 72.2%)
Brad Taschuk (35-21, 62.5%)


Fedor "The Last Emperor" Emelianenko vs. Brett "The Grim" Rogers


Miles Hackett: There's always the anxiety Fedor fans have leading up to his fights, the question rousing such a kerfuffle always being "will this be the guy to end the 6 year reign of dominance?" Personally, I have to answer "no" in this instance with Brett Rogers. Although Rogers has obvious confidence in himself, I'm not sure why. Stylistically, he has not shown that he brings anything to the table that has given Fedor issues in the past. He doesn't throw straight punches, he's not very quick, he's pretty lazy in the clinch, and his conditioning is suspect. The disparity between these two will be visible in all aspects of the fight and I truly think that even if Fedor can't stop Rogers, he'll win a very one-sided contest with his relentless pace and aggression. Winner by 1st round (T)KO: Fedor Emelianenko.

Jamie Hughes: This fight is huge for both fighters. For Fedor, it’s a chance to prove himself to the casual MMA fans who still doubt his tag as the number one heavyweight in the world, and for Rogers, this is his biggest test to date and a chance to get a victory over the top heavyweight in the world. In this fight, Fedor’s game-plan should be to close the distance in the stand-up and use his very effective clinch to tie up Rogers, where he can use his sambo skills and good trips and throws to test Rogers takedown defense and ability on the ground. If he does get the fight down I can see Fedor using his effective and accurate ground and pound to set up a submission, however, even if Fedor decides to keep the fight standing, I believe he will be more than comfortable there. For Rogers, it's nice and simple (in theory). To win, he'll need to keep the fight standing and at a distance, avoid the clinch, and accurately land bombs from the outside, while not over-committing in exchanges due to Fedor’s very good takedown skills. All that said, I think Fedor will overwhelm Rogers early in all aspects of the fight, quickly leading to a finish. Winner by 1st round (T)KO: Fedor Emelianenko.

Jack Barrington: Here's a fight that splits a lot of the MMA community's support. One thing most will agree on, however, is that this step up in competition will be too much for Rogers, as he has one way to win this fight and that is to catch Fedor standing. Fedor can win this fight pretty much anywhere. Look for him to stand for the first minute and feel Rogers out, he may hurt him there as I don't really feel Rogers has the speed or accuracy to have too much success standing. Fedor gets the takedown midway through the first and lays on some solid ground-and-pound resulting in Rogers tapping due to strikes. Winner by 1st round Submission: Fedor Emelianenko.

Joshua Taylor: Finally, Fedor is making his Strikeforce debut and I actually like the match-up here. Rogers has some name value after beating Arlovski and I think it’s a good fight for Fedor to show his skills. There is always a danger with a heavy-handed striker like Rogers, but I believe that even if he tags Fedor, "the Last Emperor" has the skills to hold on and get the fight to the ground to recover. Honestly though, I believe Fedor will want to display his full array of skills so I see him feeling Rogers out for a bit in the stand-up, clinching, and scoring the trip takedown, and then working for, and securing an armbar submission. Winner by 1st round Submission: Fedor Emelianenko.

Brad Taschuk: Anyone who fancies themselves as a PRIDE or Fedor fan is likely a little nervous heading into this fight, since it has all the makings of a trap fight. The truth is that Fedor is vastly superior in every aspect of the game, but Fedor’s unbeaten legacy is one of the few cherished records in MMA. So even people who aren’t necessarily Emelianenko fans worry leading up to each and every one of his bouts, even when they have no reason to. Anyone who has picked Rogers in this fight is simply hoping that Brett will be the one to dethrone Fedor, they didn’t pick him using any logic whatsoever. Fedor will do what Fedor does, and finish this fight in the first. Winner by 1st round: Submission: Fedor Emelianenko.


The Final Forecast: Fedor Emelianenko silences the critics, for a few days, anyway.



Jason "Mayhem" Miller vs. Jake Shields

Miles: This fight is very evenly matched with two very experienced athletes who have obvious penchants for ground fighting. Miller holds a slight edge standing, but on the ground, I think Shields is the more dangerous man. Despite that advantage, Miller has proven himself to be incredibly hard to submit, so I don't think Shields will be able to finish him once the fight hits the floor. I expect this fight to bore casual fans to tears, while entertaining the hardcore audience with a patient chess match that unfolds mainly in the clinch and on the ground. Winner by Unanimous Decision: Jake Shields.

Jamie: In this fight, Shields should look to stay very disciplined on his feet against the long rangy striking of Miller, while looking to tie Miller up in the clinch where he can attempt trips/takedowns so that he can to get this fight to the mat. Once there, Shields will try to control Miller from top position and work for submissions, which will keep Miller constantly guessing. As for Miller, he should keep the fight standing and look to pick off Shields from range using his jab and leg kicks, and look to use good footwork to keep Shields on the back foot, playing into his advantage in the striking department. Winner by Unanimous Decision: Jake Shields.

Jack: Miller has the advantage standing here while Shields has the edge when this fight hits the mat. I don't see either fighter getting the finish and unfortunately, while I can hope for a ground war with lots of transitions, this fight could come down purely to control. I think Miller can keep out of trouble on the mat, but if Shields stays active enough and spends some time on top, he'll take a close UD. Winner by Unanimous Decision: Jake Shields.

Joshua: Finally Strikeforce is getting a fighting champion in their MW division and I think these are a couple of good picks to get it started up again. While Mayhem is a crazy guy and pretty talented I don’t think he will have what it takes to beat Jake Shields who as of late has been on a tear. I see this mostly being a clinch and grappling-heavy fight, and Jake will have the upper hand for the majority of that time taking a UD and the belt. Winner by Unanimous Decision: Jake Shields.

Brad: I see this fight almost the same way as everyone else seems to. Almost. Shields and Miller match up similarly to Jacare and Miller, and we saw how those fights played out. However, Shields' striking is even behind that of Jacare, and Miller continues to work out with quality wrestlers like King Mo and Daniel Cormier. I think Shields will struggle to get Mayhem down, and will tire himself out in the process. Even if Shields does get a few takedowns, he won’t be able to do anything but control Miller on the ground. I think this fight will be much closer than most people seem to think, coming down to the judges' cards, and as we’ve come to expect from MMA these days, a controversial decision. Winner by Split Decision: Jason Miller.


The Final Forecast: Shields edges out Miller in a closely contested fight that goes the distance.



Gegard Mousasi vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou

Miles: Fedor and Mousasi on the same card? Someone send Scott Coker a basket of assorted cheeses and treats. Mousasi enters this fight with an ever growing aura of confidence, while Sokoudjou is starting to find his feet again, after a rough stint in the UFC. Sokoudjou has power that cannot be denied, however, I think he's fighting someone who has shown not just a plethora of skill in all aspects of the game, but also a demeanor conceived from experience that has carried him to success. Sokoudjou will try to keep the fight standing so he can land power shots, but I see Mousasi getting a takedown and ending the fight once it gets there. Winner by 2nd round (T)KO: Gegard Mousasi.

Jamie: This fight, for Mousasi, is his to lose, and I feel he has a significant advantage in almost every aspect of it. Gegard should look to use his very crisp striking to test Sokoudjou on the feet and also move about a lot to get Sokoudjou moving and test his suspect cardio. If the fight does end-up hitting the ground, I feel Mousasi has more than enough to deal with anything Sokoudjou has to offer. For Sokoudjou, if he is to be successful in this fight I believe his best chance will be to land a big shot early and throw Mousasi off his rhythm, while pacing himself due to his past reputation for gassing early in fights. Winner by 2nd round (T)KO: Gegard Mousasi.

Jack: It seems so long ago now that Sokoudjou was the next big thing at 205lbs. With his recent win over Babalu, Gegard Mousasi has emphatically stolen that crown for himself. Sokky has obvious power and Mousasi will no doubt be aware of this, however, Mousasi's kickboxing skills should be more than enough to hang with "The African Assassin". I see Sokoudjou gassing midway through the second and being finished with strikes on the ground. Winner by 2nd round (T)KO: Gegard Mousasi.

Joshua: First off, I hate when champions fight in non-title fights, as I think if you are champ, you should be willing to fight anyone at anytime and have enough confidence to put your title on the line. That said, I realize this was Strikeforce’s choice and not Mousasi’s. I really don’t see much challenge for Gegard here though as he is too smart to give Sokky a chance to win. He has good enough stand-up to hang with Sokky until he chooses to take it to the ground where I think he ground and pound will earn him a victory over the exhausted African Assassin. Winner by 2nd round (T)KO: Gegard Mousasi.

Brad: This was supposed to be the final of the Super Hulk GP, but we get to see it on CBS instead, which means we actually get to see Sokoudjou have a shot at winning the Super Hulk GP. Mousasi is a more technical striker, a far superior grappler, a smarter fighter, and he has a better gas tank. All those things point to him having his pick of how he beats Sokoudjou in this fight. He can keep it on the feet and wear the Cameroonian down with an accumulation of strikes, or he can take this to the ground and sub Sokoudjou out just as easily. As much as I’d like to see Sokky return to treating people’s heads like Albert Pujols would treat a tee-ball, I just don’t see that materializing in this fight. Winner by 2nd round Submission: Gegard Mousasi.


The Final Forecast: Mousasi dismantles Sokoudjou, even if Sokoudjou doesn't gas.


Antonio "Big Foot" Silva vs. Fabricio "Vai Cavalo" Werdum

Miles: Really interesting match-making here, and to me, the hardest fight to comfortably predict. The biggest deterrent from me picking Silva is the level of competition he has faced in the past, as well as the fact he has struggled against quicker opponents who aren't completely useless on the feet. Werdum's going to struggle to get the fight to the ground with takedowns, but I think he will eventually be able to wear Silva down in the clinch with his superior conditioning, ultimately leading the fight to the ground where Werdum holds an edge. Silva's not useless on the ground, being a BJJ black-belt himself, so unless he runs out of gas to the point of being unable to defend himself, don't expect a stoppage. Winner by Unanimous Decision: Fabricio Werdum.

Jamie: This is a big test for Silva to see if he is ready for top heavyweight competition. Look for him to keep the fight standing, where he can use his sizeable reach advantage on Werdum to control the pace of the fight , where he will look to catch Werdum or ride out a decision victory. For Werdum, I think he will be more than happy to stand with Silva using his ever improving stand up game, but I can see him at some point looking to test Silva’s credentials on the ground where Werdum is very much at home. Winner by Unanimous Decision: Fabricio Werdum.

Jack: An interesting fight between men who have both been talked of in the past as potential threats to Fedor Emelianenko's crown. If Silva can keep this standing it could be a long night for Werdum, however, if this fight hits the mat it's Werdum's world. While Silva is a BJJ blackbelt himself, Werdum is possibly the best grappler in the division. While he has the stylistic advantage, this is a step up in competition for Silva and I see him being out-grappled and losing a decision. Winner by Unanimous Decision: Fabricio Werdum.

Joshua: Next to Fedor/Rogers, this is the fight I am most excited for as I think both these fighters have the skills to be successful in the HW division. Both guys are talented standing and on the ground, but I think Werdum will have enough of an advantage to be able to take a UD from Silva. Although I don’t see Werdum being able to submit Silva, I do think he will be able to get the fight to the ground, where he can control its pace en route to victory. Winner by Unanimous Decision: Fabricio Werdum.

Brad: This HW match likely determines who gets in line after Alistair Overeem to fight Fedor, and it’s an intriguing match up to say the least. Werdum has shown some deficiencies on the feet in multiple fights, and Bigfoot is certainly the better striker. However, like in all his fights, Werdum is the better grappler. The big question is, how will Werdum deal with Silva’s size, and will he be able to take this fight to the ground. Personally, I think Werdum is savvy enough, and has faced enough top competition that he’ll be able to drag this fight down where he can work his expert BJJ game, but I think it would be unlikely to see him force Silva to tap. Winner by Unanimous Decision: Fabricio Werdum.


The Final Forecast: Werdum dashes Silva's hopes of being mentioned among the elite of the MMA world's heavyweight division.


Marloes Coenen vs. Roxanne Modafferi

Miles: Even though it is unlikely that this fight will be televised, I think it's important enough to include a write-up about it because the victor will likely emerge as the #1 contender for Cristiane Santos' women's title. Both women are experienced fighters who have spent most of their careers working on the Asian MMA circuit with Coenen being a ground specialist, and Modafferi more of a decision artist. Coenen has to be given the edge on the ground, and I think she will look to win this fight there, whether it's via strikes, submission, or control for 3 rounds. Expect a ground fight with sloppy brawling intervals between each takedown. Winner by Unanimous Decision: Marloes Coenen.

Jamie: Winner by Unanimous Decision: Roxanne Modafferi.

Jack: Unfortunately, I don't see either of these two posing a legitimate challenge to Cristiane "Cyborg" Santos as the top female fighter in the world. I have a feeling that this one will not be pretty and you could probably have found a better advert for women's MMA. These two have met before and I see there second meeting going the same way as the first, Modafferi does what she does best and takes home a UD. Winner by Unanimous Decision: Roxanne Modafferi.

Joshua: I am really upset that Strikeforce cant seem to get Toughill into the cage, as I think she would make for a fantastic fight with Cyborg. She missed the Carano/Cyborg event at the last min and had to pull out of this fight only a couple of weeks ago, which is unfortunate. However, it appears these two will now compete for who gets to be murdered by Santos next. I really don’t see a whole lot changing from the last time they met except it now being on a bigger stage. 80% of the fight will likely take place on the ground where Modafferi will do enough to win a decision victory. Winner by Unanimous Decision: Roxanne Modafferi.

Brad: I’m smart enough to know that these two have faced each other once before, and it was a relatively close fight the first time around, it was also only 2 years ago, and neither fighter has gone through any vast evolutions since then. Coenen relies on her submission skills to win fights, and over her career Modafferi has become very adept at avoiding submissions while maintaining control and picking up decision victories. Coenen hasn’t progressed enough since the last time these two fought to change that, and the scoring system will certainly not play in her favour when this fight inevitably goes to the judges. Winner by Unanimous Decision: Roxanne Modafferi.


The Final Forecast: History repeats itself with Modafferi taking another hard fought contest, this time her prize is likely a fight with Cyborg.. good luck with all that!



Deray Davis vs. Mark Miller

Miles: Winner by Unanimous Decision: Mark Miller.

Jamie: Winner by Unanimous Decision: Mark Miller.

Jack: Winner by 3rd round (T)KO: Mark Miller.

Joshua: Winner by Unanimous Decision: Deray Davis.

Brad: Winner by 2nd round (T)KO: Mark Miller.


The Final Forecast: Mark establishes himself as the only victorious "Miller" on the card.



Jeff "Big Frog" Curran vs. Dustin Neace

Miles: Winner by 2nd round Submission: Jeff Curran.

Jamie: Winner by 2nd round Submission: Jeff Curran.

Jack: Winner by 1st round (T)KO: Jeff Curran.

Joshua: Winner by 2nd round Submission: Jeff Curran.

Brad: Winner by 1st round Submission: Jeff Curran.


The Final Forecast: Curran recovers from his WEC failings with an impressive Strikeforce debut.


Shamar Bailey vs. John Kolosci

Miles: Winner by Unanimous Decision: Shamar Bailey.

Jamie: Winner by Unanimous Decision: John Kolosci.

Jack: Winner by 3rd round (T)KO: Shamar Bailey.

Joshua: Winner by Unanimous Decision: Shamar Bailey.

Brad: Winner by 3rd round Submission: Shamar Bailey.


The Final Forecast: Bailey outhussles Kolosci for the judges' approval.



Christian Uflacker vs. Jonatas Novaes

Miles: Winner by 1st round Submission: Jonatas Novaes.

Jamie: Winner by Unanimous Decision: Jonatas Novaes.

Jack: Winner by Unanimous Decision: Jonatas Novaes.

Joshua: Winner by 1st round Submission: Jonatas Novaes.

Brad: Winner by 1st round Submission: Christian Uflacker.


The Final Forecast: Novaes sacrifices a Christian in the name of Fedor.


Louis Taylor vs. Nate Moore

Miles: Winner by 2nd round (T)KO: Louis Taylor.

Jamie: Winner by 1st round (T)KO: Louis Taylor.

Jack: Winner by 2nd round (T)KO: Louis Taylor.

Joshua: Winner by 1st round (T)KO: Louis Taylor.

Brad: Winner by Unanimous Decision: Louis Taylor.


The Final Forecast: Taylor finishes Moore with strikes within two rounds.