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The FightLockdown Forecast - Strikeforce: Evolution
Written by Miles Hackett   
Thursday, 17 December 2009 19:34
Saturday night from the HP Pavilion Center in San Jose, California, Strikeforce is bringing us an early Christmas present with their “Evolution” card. Breaking down the intriguing match-ups tonight are FightLockdown’s Brad Taschuk, Jamie Hughes, David Anthony, Joshua Taylor, and Miles Hackett. Continue on with the forecast, if you dare!



Main Card



Cung Le vs. Scott “Hands of Steel” Smith

Brad Taschuk: This fight essentially boils down to Cung Le being a very diverse, accurate and fast striker, and Scott Smith being a very one-dimensional, slow striker who gets caught way more than any man should. Expect Le to pick Smith apart for as long as it takes in this one. I can see this fight looking a lot like Smith’s fight against Patrick Cote went, but with Le not being as tentative. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Cung Le.

Jamie Hughes: Ultimately, one simple question will decide this fight: “how much ring rust does Cung Le have?” If he comes back like his old self I can see him using his superior technical stand-up to keep Smith at bay, using his lightning-fast kicks to do damage from the outside, while implementing good footwork to frustrate Smith, to the point where he will eventually make a mistake and pay for it via (T)KO. That said, if he does have any ring rust or doubts heading into this fight, Smith can capitalize on this by drawing Cung Le into a brawl and looking to land one of his trademark power punches. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Cung Le.

David Anthony: Scott Smith is heavy handed, but has never been accused of being a technical striker. Strong shots to the gut also seem to be his kryptonite. I find this fight simple to call, barring a puncher's chance, Scott Smith will probably be eating canvas. Cung Le (did anyone else cringe when Gary Shaw would refer to him simply as "Cung"?) is quicker and more dynamic striking. And I don't see this fight being forced to the ground by either fighter. Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Cung Le.

Joshua Taylor: This is really a perfect matchup for Cung, as Scott won't want to take the fight to the ground and doesn’t have the skills to hang with Le on the feet. Le is much more diverse and quick than Smith and I see Smith taking another beating until he just can't stand anymore. Winner by 3rd round TKO: Cung Le.

Miles Hackett: As Josh said, this is a pretty easy match-up on paper for Le. Smith isn’t the smartest fighter in the world and it’s incredibly doubtful that his fight IQ will surface in the form of takedowns and BJJ this time around. Smith struggled in a striking match against Nick Diaz, absorbing a lot of punishment in the form of kicks before getting submitted. The bad news for “Hands of Steel” is that Cung Le packs far more wallop in his kicks than Nick Diaz, whose striking has the same effect as Randy Couture’s clinch-work against the fence. Look for Smith’s heart and toughness to carry him into the later rounds, but don’t expect any hail mary punches to save him this time. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Cung Le.


The Final Forecast: Cung Le returns to success by beating-up Joaquin Phoenix.


Josh “The Punk” Thomson vs. Gilbert “El Nino” Melendez

Brad: I really find this the toughest fight to call on this card. Had it happened back when it was originally scheduled, I would have felt comfortable picking Josh Thomson by Unanimous Decision, just like in their original encounter. However, Thomson will have been out for one day shy of 15 months by the time this fight happens, and he seems to have had some serious issues recovering from his injuries. In the meantime, Gilbert Melendez has put on two very impressive performances over Rodrigo Damm and (avenging his other loss) Mitsuhiro Ishida. Melendez seems to have improved every part of his game. Ishida struggled to take him down in their rematch, and his striking seems to be getting sharper each time we see him. Still, I just think Thomson has too many advantages in this fight, and I see a similar outcome to last time, albeit more competitive. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Josh Thomson.

Jamie: I can see this fight being much more competitive than their first bout. While Melendez has been active and putting on impressive performances, Thomson has been laid-up on the treatment table for too long. I think Melendez's best chance is to keep the fight standing and use his ever improving stand-up to dictate the fight’s pace, while looking to keep his distance to avoid takedown attempts by Thomson which are eventually going to occur. Thomson, on the other hand, should look to close the distance, using his punches to set-up takedowns. Once he gets the fight to the ground, he should try to work his good ground and pound and smother Melendez in an attempt to tire out the challenger, making the possibility of a finish in the later rounds more likely. Winner via Split Decision: Gilbert Melendez.

David: So the rematch is finally going to happen, huh? I'll believe it when I see it. Assuming it actually comes to fruition on Saturday, I see ring rust getting in the way of Thomson's chances. And while Thomson has been struggling with and recovering from injuries for over a year, Melendez has been looking better in every fight. I expect that trend to continue as Thomson comes in looking slightly deteriorated from their last meeting. Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Gilbert Melendez.

Joshua: When this fight was first announced I was going to pick Thomson in much the same way as their first match, but with such an extended layoff, and with Gilbert beating Damm and Ishida so convincingly, I have been swayed to the other side. I think Gilbert has improved enough to take advantage of Josh’s ring rust and he’ll be able to win enough rounds to take a decision. While the stand-up edge will still be in favor of Thomson, I think Gilbert has improved enough to be able survive the striking exchanges and mix-up his attack to get the fight to the ground where he can work his ground and pound. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Gilbert Melendez.

Miles: I have to go with Thomson here. He and his team wrote the perfect gameplan to fight Gilbert Melendez and he executed it flawlessly in their first encounter. Melendez has made adjustments since then, particularly with his boxing, but none so great that I think he has gained an edge anywhere against “The Punk”. Thomson’s striking is far more varied and his kicking game (if not hindered by the fear of another leg break) will keep Gilbert off-balance, out of range, and guessing. I basically see a repeat of their last fight, except this may be slightly more competitive. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Josh Thomson.


The Final Forecast: Melendez punks the Strikeforce LW championship belt away from Thomson.



Ronaldo “Jacaré” Souza vs. Matt “The Law” Lindland

Brad: A wrestler facing a BJJ world champion. Normally the wrestler would want to keep this fight on his feet, but when said wrestler possesses stand-up as bad as Matt Lindland’s, there are really no good options for “The Law” in this fight. Jacare isn’t a world-beater by any means on the feet, but he should be effective enough to force Lindland into looking at other means of victory, which means ground game. Which likely means sub. Winner via 1st round Submission: Ronaldo Souza.

Jamie: I can see Jacaré setting-up the takedown with his strikes and dominating Lindland on the ground. Despite the fact Lindland is very powerful and has good sub-defense, I feel that “the Law” is on the way down in his career. Jacaré's BJJ is on a different level to most middleweights, and I expect him to force the submission in the second round. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Ronaldo Souza.

David: I really don't see how Matt Lindland wins this fight. He's not particularly heavy handed, and despite this being American MMA, I don't think he is an elite enough wrestler to play human blanket on Jacaré. Don't get me wrong, I actually like Matt Lindland. But Souza is just too good for him at this point in his career. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Ronaldo Souza.

Joshua: I really don’t see Lindland wanting to go to the ground with someone as dangerous as Jacaré, but I don’t think he will have much choice. Jacaré isn’t a great striker either, but I think he will have enough of an edge to control the fight and take advantage of takedown opportunities he gets. Jacaré will get a good win in his first Strikeforce bout and hopefully send Lindland’s ugly mug packing. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Ronaldo Souza.

Miles: There are so many reasons not to pick Matt Lindland in this fight. First of all, he’s been on the shelf for just shy of a year. Secondly, the last time we did see him, he looked like absolute trash (for the entire 40 seconds he was conscious). Third, his striking is laughable. And lastly, he can’t rely on his wrestling to win him this fight, as it will play directly into his opponent’s strength. Jacaré is a monster on the mat and I think that Lindland’s ring rust in combination with his inconsistency against skilled grapplers will result in another poor outing. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Ronaldo Souza.


The Final Forecast: Jacaré breaks "the Law" and establishes himself as a legitimate contender to Jake Shields' MW throne.


Muhammad “King Mo” Lawal vs. Mike Whitehead

Brad: King Mo brings his act over to North America for a second time, but this time he’s on a bit of a bigger stage, and a slightly higher quality of opponent. It should really be no matter for Mo though, as Whitehead isn’t skilled enough as a wrestler, striker or grappler to give Mo serious issues. My only hope for this fight is that it doesn’t result in Lawal being fast-tracked to the top of Strikeforce’s 205 division, which is short on challengers for Gegard Mousasi (and now Dan Henderson). Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Mo Lawal.

Jamie: This fight is a step-up in weight for King Mo, but I think he still out-matches Whitehead in every area. I can see Lawal overwhelming Whitehead on his way to an early stoppage victory. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Mo Lawal.

David: I seem to be in the minority that thinks this fight will be competitive. Being a firm believer in the future of Mr. Lawal, I think he takes it, but Whitehead is no pushover. He's also not a total idiot and realizes who he is stepping into the cage with. He's not the easiest guy to knockout (barring a doctor stoppage he hasn't been legitimately knocked out in 7 years), and he isn't easy to sub (though I doubt Lawal wil be taking that route to victory). King Mo has vicious, unorthodox striking and a very solid wrestling base. I expect him to dominate this fight for the most part while Whitehead remains dangerous throughout.
Winner via Unanimous Decision: Mo Lawal.

Joshua: Although this will be a step up for King Mo, I think he realizes the opportunity he has fighting in Strikeforce and will take full advantage. Mo will have an advantage regardless of where the fight goes, but with two wrestlers it will likely be determined on the feet, which is why I am calling a second round finish by TKO for the King. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Mo Lawal.

Miles: Really don’t get why we’re watching two LHW fighters competing as heavyweights, especially when they’re not planning on staying above 205. Standard wrestler vs. Wrestler match-up here, with King Mo obviously wanting to keep the fight standing, but Whitehead looking to get it to the ground. I’m going to wager that Lawal’s athleticism and superior wrestling and striking will be too much for Whitehead, but I think it’ll go past the first round. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Mo Lawal.


The Final Forecast: "King Mo" bursts Whitehead's hopes of victory with an impressive debut knockout.



Preliminary Card

Scott Lighty vs. Antwain Britt

Brad: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Antwain Britt.

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Antwain Britt.

David: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Scott Lighty.

Joshua: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Antwain Britt.

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Antwain Britt.


The Final Forecast: Britt cruises to a one-sided decision victory.


Daisuke Nakamura vs. Justin "The Silverback" Wilcox

Brad: Winner via 1st round Submission: Daisuke Nakamura.

Jamie: Winner via 1st round Submission: Daisuke Nakamura.

David: Winner via 1st round Submission: Daisuke Nakamura.

Joshua: Winner via 1st round Submission: Daisuke Nakamura.

Miles: Winner via 1st round Submission: Daisuke Nakamura.


The Final Forecast: Nakamura doesn't punish his replacement, instead opting for a quick submission.


Juan Nunez vs. Luis Mendoza

Brad: Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Juan Nunez.

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision Juan Nunez.

David: Winner via Uninamous Decision: Juan Nunez.

Joshua: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Luis Mendoza.

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Luis Mendoza.


The Final Forecast: In this battle of relative unknowns, the cage experience of Nunez will prevail.


Bobby Stack vs. Alex Trevino

Brad: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Bobby Stack.

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Bobby Stack.

David: Winner via Uninamous Decision: Bobby Stack.

Joshua: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Bobby Stack.

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Bobby Stack.


The Final Forecast: Bobby stacks the deck too high against Trevino.


Alex Crispim vs. A.J. Fonseca

Brad: Winner via 1st round Submission: Alex Crispim.

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: A.J Fonseca.

David: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: A.J. Fonseca.

Joshua: Winner via Unanimous Decision: A.J. Fonseca.

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: A.J. Fonseca.


The Final Forecast: Fonseca outworks and controls Crispim for the judges' favor.