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The FightLockdown Forecast - TUF 11 Finale
Written by Miles Hackett   
Friday, 18 June 2010 09:51
Live tomorrow night from the Palms Casino and Resort, yet another MMA prospect will be crowned the king of the UFC's reality circus.. err.. show – whether that holds any semblance of relevance is entirely subjective. Despite the lack of anything truly substantial on the card, this is MMA and we will gladly break the evening’s proceedings down for you. On the panel tonight are Jamie Hughes, Jack Barrington, Miles Hackett, Brad Taschuk, and Matt Bremner, check out their winning picks, after the break!



Matt “The Hammer” Hamill vs. Keith “The Dean of Mean” Jardine

Jamie Hughes: Hamill/Jardine is a vitally important fight for both fighters, as Jardine is coming off a TKO loss to Ryan Bader and Hamill even though he technically got a win, was man-handled by Jon Jones. I think in this fight Jardine needs to try and employ a different strategy and try to protect his now “weak” chin, he has the slightly better striking than Hamill, but if Hamill can get past the awkwardness of Jardine’s strikes and bully him against the fence, he can wear down Jardine and claim a decision. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Matt Hamill.

Jack Barrington: Two fighters that I couldn't care less about, headlining a finale that I couldn't care less about. I'll try not to nod off while writing this then. While Jardine has become a relatively bad fighter as of late, and is most likely hanging onto his UFC contract by the skin of his teeth, he is still a game opponent for any fighter without one punch knockout power. Hamill, however, can dictate where this fight takes place, and has decent enough hands to survive standing-up. Hamill has struggled with kicks previously in the Rich Franklin fight, and Keith kicks harder than most prospective opponents for the wrestler, but I think he puts Keith on his back for three rounds and takes a clear -- if uneventful -- decision. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Matt Hamill.

Miles Hackett: Keith Jardine has to be respected, he’s stepped-up to the plate and fought every single top fighter the UFC has thrown his way, but being the company man has seen Jardine fall to a measly 1-4 in his last 5 outings. Aside from being trounced by Jon Jones, Matt Hamill has been making enough improvements in his striking to make note of it. Standing, I favour Jardine’s diverse arsenal, but he will have to employ more intelligent movement because whenever he is pressured by heavy-hitting opponents, his defense falls apart and he pays the price. I think Hamill will strike enough to close the distance, but will ultimately make this a grinding affair against the cage and on the canvas, a much safer route to victory for “The Hammer”. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Matt Hamill.

Brad Taschuk: If this main event was happening somewhere around the mid-UFC 80's as opposed to the present, this would be an intriguing and relevant fight. Flash forward to now, and things have definitely changed. It seems like a pretty straightforward fight to me. It's hard to even say that Jardine has an advantage in the striking game - which would seemingly be his strength in this fight - since he's become so overly unorthodox that he even throws himself off. Outside of that, I just don't see him having much for Hamill if he ends up pushed up against the cage or put on his back. This coupled with his chin and inability to keep his hands up, would indicate that Keith Jardine seems to be at the end of his UFC rope. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Matt Hamill.

Matt Bremner: Keith Jardine went from a guy who was inches front a title shot to a gatekeeper's gatekeeper in the blink of an eye. Gone is the guy who out-maneuvered Chuck Liddell, here is the man who got knocked out by Ryan Bader basically swinging his arms and saying “if you get hit by me, it's your own fault”. Matt Hamill is coming off by far the worst win of his career, a DQ win that saw his face get mangled. That said, Keith Jardine isn't the “Martian Manhunter” and Hamill doesn't really need to worry there. Hamill is going to get inside, pop Jardine with some punches while trying to jersey him, and then take him down if need be. Hamill should cruise in this if he doesn't get too cute, which is unfortunately a real possibility. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Matt Hamill.


The Final Forecast: Matt Hamill forces a devastated Keith Jardine to clean out his office.


Court “The Crusher” McGee vs. Kris “Savage” McCray

Jamie: I will be honest, Court McGee strikes me as the more well-rounded fighter of the two, but McCray has shown good heart and determination on the show. If McGee comes in with a smart game-plan and uses his superior striking skills to keep his range to frustrate McCray while tiring him out while pursuing the takedown, I think he will pick up a submission win. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Court McGee.

Jack: Strange fight to call, as I have hardly followed this season of TUF, but I've caught enough single fights to know that each man has lost during the series, and possess obvious flaws in their games. I have to admit that neither fighter particularly interests nor excites me, and I can't see either doing much in the UFC after this fight. Could go either way, but I think McGee has better boxing and the edge in the ability to finish things on the mat. I'll take him by decision in a close, cagey affair. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Court McGee.

Miles: Court McGee looks like he would be the third stooge in the Diaz clan. Anyway, onto the fight.. I saw a few fights from this season, but I wasn’t particularly impressed with either of these two finalists. I think McGee’s heart and work ethic will carry him to victory, but he will have to be careful entering exchanges with McCray for the fear of being caught or taken down mid-punch. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Court McGee.

Brad: Like Jack, I haven't been following the show but was aware of both guys losing, so when I read this was the final, I was perplexed to say the least. At any rate, I had pegged McCray as somewhat of a dark horse this season, simply because he carries some solid physical tools and the proper demeanour to use those them in the cage. Court is certainly the more polished fighter, but I think if McCray has been training with a solid team, he can bully McGee in the cage for the better part of their fight. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Kris McCray.

Matt: In a testament to how ridiculous this show has gotten, two guys who have lost meet in the finals. Now, this is partially due to injury, and McGee did get screwed out of a 3rd round (two round fights? Come on.) However, all that doesn't change the fact that one of the guys in the final will leave in a tie with James Hammortree for most losses during the TUF run. I’m leaning towards McGee to win, because he's the only one who didn't flat out, no question lose his fight. McCray's biggest problem, in my eyes, is that he has to be the most hittable person ever. He was made a punching bag in both of his two previous fights, even though he won one and lost one, and I think McGee will exploit that. McGee is tough and has skills everywhere, his wins aren't pretty, no matter how much you like standing guillotines, but he gets the job done. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Court McGee.


The Final Forecast: Court McGee grinds out Kris McCray for three rounds to earn his UFC contract.


Chris “The Crippler” Leben vs. Aaron Simpson

Jamie: This is a pretty simple one to call if it stays on the feet, Leben has an overwhelming advantage due to his power and aggressive style, but he has shown a weakness against good wrestlers and Simposn fits that bill. Providing he avoids an early onslaught from “The Crippler”, Simpson should emerge the victor. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Aaron Simpson.

Jack: I think Simpson's going to run a train on Leben here. Chris hasn't looked good in a while, in my opinion, and Simpson has more than enough wrestling to put him on his back. From there, I don't see Leben having much to offer, aside from the entertainment value of us seeing him get beaten up and submitted. I have a soft spot for Leben, but this fight's going to the mat and Simpson's just better there.
Winner via 2nd round Submission: Aaron Simpson.

Miles: I think Leben has a better chance than some may think in this fight. Aaron Simpson is a tough and strong American wrestler, but he enjoys eating punches almost as much as UFC disappointment, Jake Rosholt. Leben, as predictable as he is, still packs some nasty power in both hands and I don’t think that Simpson will be able to take as much damage as he was able to after the Lawlor fight. I think I will go with Simpson because of the wrestling edge he possesses, but if it stays standing, he runs a significant risk of being knocked out. Hopefully getting away from ACS has made him a smarter fighter. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Aaron Simpson.

Brad: Another fight where as Miles likes to say, it comes down to 'Fight IQ'. Basically, if Simpson wants to brawl, he likely loses, and if he decides to wrestle, he wins. I sincerely hope that after the Lawlor fight, he decides to wrestle. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Aaron Simpson.

Matt: Chris Leben is alive and fighting in the UFC? Amazing what getting too drunk, punching a door and losing to Josh Koscheck can do for you. This fight comes down to the same thing EVERY Leben fight comes down to; can he land the “big shot”? The answer, as always is maybe, but I'm not betting on it. Simpson is tough, and will likely beat the red out of Leben's hair and the tattoo off his back. Simpson is also probably too smart to be goaded into Leben's taunts of “let's stand in front of each other and swing until one of us falls down” a la Terry Martin. If you're Leben fan, you might want to watch through cracks in your fingers, this is going be ugly. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Aaron Simpson.


The Final Forecast: Aaron Simpson puts the stomp on Chris Leben, who refuses to sit down for anyone not named "Anderson Silva".


Spencer “The King” Fisher vs. Dennis Siver

Jamie: This is certainly a potential fight of the night, as both men are known for having fast-paced, entertaining fights. I see fisher using his more well-rounded skills to dominate Siver who has shown to be more of a one trick pony in that he relies on his stand-up a lot, struggling when being pressured and taken down. I think Fisher employs a strategy consisting of mixing-up intelligent striking and takedowns to win via decision. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Spencer Fisher.

Jack: This could be a fun fight, because while Siver is very hit-and-miss he's unafraid to try some very crazy things in fights, and has a habit of pulling them off. I like Fisher here though, he has the better basic striking ability, and the option to use the threat of the takedown to his advantage. Hopefully it will be a back and forth affair, but I see Fisher using straight punches to land the better shots, and taking a decision. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Spencer Fisher.

Miles: Probably the most appealing fight on the main card, aimed at the lowest common denominator of MMA fans; two non-contenders who like to throw down. Siver has had a longer tenure in the UFC than I anticipated, although that can likely be accredited to his effective utilization of spinning back-kicks. Fisher is a seasoned striker himself who is known for throwing flashy combinations and power shots, so I think his aggressive style will earn Siver’s respect. I expect some fun exchanges in this one, but ultimately I see Fisher outpointing Siver for a clear-cut decision win. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Spencer Fisher.

Brad: I'm not convinced that Spencer Fisher will be able to mix-up his striking and wrestling like some of my panel-mates, but I do think he's the better overall striker in this fight, and over the course of three rounds that will be quite evident... so long as he avoids the spinning back-kick. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Spencer Fisher.

Matt: Siver's got amazing body kicks, we've all seen and heard them. However, someone like Spencer Fisher is going to make him pay for everyone he throws by throwing three or four counter shots. Spencer is definitely the better striker with the hands in this fight and as long as he changes up his distance and keeps moving, that kick shouldn't ever find a home to do enough damage to matter. I don't expect Fisher to put Siver away, but I can see him putting a beating on him like the one he gave Sam Stout the last time they fought. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Spencer Fisher.


The Final Forecast: Fisher outclasses Siver in a primarily stand-up affair.


Jamie “The Chosyn 1” Yager vs. Rich “The Raging Bull” Attonito

Jamie: On the show, before his injury, Attonito impressed me enough to think that he will be able to bully around Yager and force a late stoppage via his wrestling and ground and pound. That said, he will have to be weary of Yager’s unorthodox and explosive stand-up. Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Rich Attonito.

Jack: Meh, my interest in this one is about the same level of my interest in this season's TUF; about as low as Chuck Liddell's hands. I can't say I care much for either fighter personally, but it's a close fight and may even be a fun one. Neither man has much (if any) experience on the big stage, and while Attonito is more experienced I see Yager as having more potential. I think Yager has the ability to overwhelm Rich with his somewhat wild striking, and keep him backing up for the early stages of the fight. Attonito will regain his composure and take him down though, and given Yager's questionable heart, I think he'll stop him there. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Rich Attonito.

Miles: Yet another big mouthed fighter works his way onto a main card slot, how surprising! I really thought Yager was destined to be a finalist on this season, he was athletic and had well-rounded skills, for TUF, anyway. I was surprised to see him quit on the stool and I think that’s something that will haunt him for the rest of his career. Don’t know much about Rich Attonito outside of the fact he has Jake LaMotta’s nickname and he doesn’t like knees in the face. I’ll take Yager to partially redeem himself with a stoppage win, midway through the contest. God, I hate picking someone with such a stupid nickname. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Jamie Yager.

Brad: Yager has to win this fight early, and I think given that Attonito still has something to prove - since he might be the only guy who didn't lose on TUF 11 - that will end up being a very difficult task. Once Yager's initial explosion is done, he's simply not an exceedingly dangerous fighter, while Attonito has better wrestling, grappling, and stout enough boxing. I expect Attonito to wear Yager down before finishing him relatively late. Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Rich Attonito.

Matt: Jamie Yager is that annoying kid you played on UFC Disputed 2009 (you know, the one people actually bought). He spams headkicks and superman punches and hopes that one lands or you get mad and make a mistake. However, his will is broken just as easily, a few counterpunches, some ground-and-pound and then he taps out, all while swearing and such. Yager's an entertaining fighter, but as soon as the going gets tough, he quits like a punk. Attonito has already seen this happen, and I expect him to weather an early storm of ridiculous strikes and then make Yager quit on the floor. Winner via 1st round Submission: Rich Attonito.


The Final Forecast: Fans rejoice as Rich Attonito pummels TUF 11's cartoon character bad guy into submission or unconsciousness.




James McSweeney vs. Travis “Hapa” Browne

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: James McSweeney.

Jack: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Travis Browne.

Miles: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Travis Browne.

Brad: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Travis Browne.

Matt: Winner via 3rd Round (T)KO: Travis Browne.


The Final Forecast: Gigantic Travis Browne makes an example of James McSweeney in his UFC debut.


James Hammortree vs. Chris Camozzi

Jamie: Winner via Split Decision: James Hammortree.

Jack: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Chris Camozzi.

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Chris Camozzi.

Brad: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Chris Camozzi.

Matt: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Chris Camozzi.


The Final Forecast: Camozzi forces a tap from Hammortree before the third round.


Kyle “KO” Noke vs. Josh “The Beast” Bryant

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Kyle Noke.

Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Kyle Noke.

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Josh Bryant.

Brad: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Kyle Noke.

Matt: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Kyle Noke.


The Final Forecast: Kyle Noke overcomes the determination of Bryant with a technical performance in the stand-up department.


Brad Tavares vs. Seth Baczynski

Jamie: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Brad Tavares.

Jack: Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Brad Tavares.

Miles: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Brad Tavares.

Brad: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Brad Tavares.

Matt: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Brad Tavares.


The Final Forecast: Tavares picks up a knockout within the distance.


John Gunderson vs. Mark “Boots” Holst

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: John Gunderson.

Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: John Gunderson.

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Mark Holst.

Brad: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Mark Holst.

Matt: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Mark Holst.


The Final Forecast: Holst lays the "Boots" to Gunderson in what will hopefully be an exciting grappling affair.