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The FightLockdown Forecast - UFC 104: Machida vs. Rua
Written by Miles Hackett   
Friday, 23 October 2009 15:47
Tomorrow night in the "city of angels" (Los Angeles), all eyes will be on UFC 104 when Mauricio "Shogun" Rua will attempt to violently overthrow the reign of the UFC's current and enigmatic Light-Heavyweight champion, Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida. Giving you your forecast tonight are the following FLD writers:

Jamie Hughes (24-21, 53.%)
Jack Barrington (14-11, 56%)
Brad Taschuk (27-18, 60%)
Joshua Taylor (23-17, 57.5%)
Matt Bremner (7-3, 70%)



Who do you think will come out on top at UFC 104?




Main Card


Lyoto "the Dragon" Machida vs. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua

Jamie Hughes: In the main event, we have arguably the biggest Light-Heavyweight fight in MMA history. In one corner, we have the undefeated and reigning champion, Lyoto ”The Dragon” Machida, taking on Former PRIDE Middleweight grand prix winner, Mauricio ”Shogun” Rua. This fight for me is a monumental one for the 205lb weightclass. It’s a battle between two drastically contrasting styles; Machida’s elusive, but deadly Karate style versus Shogun’s aggressive and relentless muay thai style. The game-plan for Machida will be the same as how he has approached all of his fights thus far; to stay on the outside and pick apart Shogun, while capitalizing on any mistakes he makes, mainly by using his unorthodox striking off the back foot to surprise Rua. Conversely, Shogun’s game-plan will have to be drastically different. The former Chute Boxe product will need to utilize his aggressive striking, but in more short and controlled bursts. He will also need to get Machida in the clinch in order to get this fight to the mat, namely using clinch trips, as I think it will be key to unlocking Machida’s puzzle. Shogun could take this fight by putting the champion in uncomfortable situations and testing his cardio, and dragging him into a war -- which is easier said than done. However, if any fighter could pull this game-plan off, it’s a fit and healthy Shogun Rua. Winner via 4th round (T)KO: Mauricio “Shogun” Rua.

Jack Barrington: Here we go, the top two 205lb fighters in the world going at it for the belt. I wrote at length about what Shogun has to do to win this fight and I believe he can win it, while Shogun is without doubt the best fighter Machida has ever faced I wouldn't be too quick to make that statement the other way. Shogun can win this fight, and I'll be cheering for him all the way, but unfortunately he hasn't shown enough since coming to the UFC to make me confident enough to pick him outright. I see this going the distance with the fight hitting the mat on numerous occasions. I think Lyoto can do enough outpointing on the feet to take this by the slimmest of margins. Winner via Split Decision: Lyoto Machida.

Brad Taschuk: When this fight was first announced, people instantly jumped all over it, claiming Shogun wasn't a worthy challenger. I was never in that camp, as I still believe there's a wide variety of situations we've never seen the champion in. Shogun presents some of those challenges, and it should make for an interesting fight. I'm still really torn on this fight, because I think Machida's power has been greatly exaggerated after his last two performances, and his defense when in striking range has always been overblown. The key to this fight will be who controls the distance, and unfortunately the WEC-sized cage has not yet arrived in the UFC, and I see the vast expanse that is the octagon working in Lyoto's favour. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Lyoto Machida.

Joshua Taylor: While I do see opportunities for Rua to win this bout, as Lyoto has been untested in many areas, I believe Shogun’s aggressive nature will lead to his downfall. The first couple of rounds will serve as a feeling out period as always, but by the third round I think we will see Machida having Shogun’s timing down, leading to him landing fight ending blows. Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Lyoto Machida.

Matt Bremner: The "Machida Era" begins... right. Lyoto is going to give anyone he fights problems, period. I'm not going to harp on how he's more elusive than a shadow in the evening or anything like that, we all know it already. However, his opponent is wildly unpredictable and that is the one thing that he really has going for him. We haven't seen Machida on his back yet in any of his fights, and I think we will see that once in this fight, but I don't think it ends the fight. Expect to see some clinch work, but I think this will be five rounds of Shogun attempting to land big crazy shots on Lyoto and being countered. This is a fight that could definitely go either way, but I'm going to play it safe. Lyoto has proven he can beat guys that come after him and I just get a feeling that Shogun will get frustrated and try to go buck wild. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Lyoto Machida.


The Final Forecast: Shogun's fearless aggression works against him, leaving "the Dragon" as champion.


Cain Velasquez vs. "Big" Ben Rothwell

Jamie: Next up, we have undefeated Heavyweight contender Cain Velasquez taking on the vastly experienced Ben Rothwell in a Heavyweight showdown. Velasquez’s game-plan should be to probe from standing, eventually close the distance standing, then to shoot immediately on Rothwell, aiming to get the fight to the mat, where he can control and wear him down for prolonged periods of time, mixing up his good top control with effective ground and pound. Rothwell’s game-plan should be to keep this fight standing so he can test Velasquez’s chin by throwing cleverly placed combinations while avoiding Velasquez’s takedown attempts. I can see Rothwell causing enough damage to generate the upset. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Ben Rothwell.

Jack: A fight here that could be Cain's biggest test in the UFC so far, Rothwell is dangerous no doubt about it, but I feel he, like most of the heavyweight division, will struggle to fend of Cain's takedowns and while he won't be rag-dolled like Cheick Kongo, I just don't think he can keep Cain off of him. 30-27 on all three scorecards should keep Cain's perfect record intact. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Cain Velasquez.

Brad: Ben Rothwell is certainly the most well-rounded fighter that Cain Velasquez will have ever fought, but that's about all he has going for him in this fight. Some may look at the Kongo fight and think Rothwell will put Velasquez away, but with all the shots he landed on Arlovski without breaking that piece of fine china, I don't see survival in the stand-up as an issue for the AKA product. Cain is the better wrestler, has the better cardio, and may even have the better technical striking. It took some Atomic Bombs from Andrei Arlovski to put Rothwell away though, so I'm thinking he manages to survive 15 with Cain's tepid ground and pound. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Cain Velasquez.

Joshua: I really don’t see a way that Rothwell can take this fight aside from a freak injury or flash KO, although I do think he will prove to be a good test for Cain. "Big Ben" is a very tough and well-rounded fighter, but I don’t think he has the takedown defense or submission offense to put Cain in any real trouble. I see Cain taking a three round, ground and pound decision here. Winner by Unanimous Decision: Cain Velasquez.

Matt: Ben Rothwell has huge potential for the UFC. His life story is really compelling and his slow, decade long climb makes him seem like a perfect blue collar champion. However, I have always said the same thing about Rothwell; that he is a jack of all trades and a master of none. He's good on his feet, he's good on the ground, he's not great anywhere. Unfortunately for him, Cain Velasquez is a great wrestler. Kongo managed to rock Cain a few times, but I have to think that Cain's gotten smarter since then, and that even if Rothwell hits as hard as Kongo did, he still won't KO Velasquez, leading to Big Ben having his back on the mat. I pull for the upset because I'm tired of the Velasquez hype train, but think that Cain's just going to be too much in the end. Winner by Unanimous Decision: Cain Velasquez.


The Final Forecast: Velasquez topples "Big Ben" in a grueling game of seconds and minutes.


Gleison Tibau vs. Josh "The Dentist" Neer

Jamie: This is a fight between two good, but inconsistent fighters who have put on good shows in the UFC, but have also flattered to deceive in certain fights. Needless to say, this is a big fight for both fighters to try and get a foothold back in the Lightweight division. Neer’s game-plan should be to try and keep this standing, where he can look to outpoint Tibau by keeping a good distance to avoid any takedown attempts. Tibau, on the other hand, will look to mix things up by staying tight standing, while working to get Neer down, by clinching against the cage and also shooting in off his strikes. He'll also be constantly looking to lock in submissions using his good ground skills, but he needs to be very aware of Neer’s under-rated ground game. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Gleison Tibau.

Jack: With both fighters looking bad last time out, they will both no doubt be looking to bounce back here. Stylistically this fight favours Tibau in a big way and he will score takedowns. While Neer's guard is dangerous and Tibau's top control looked far from impressive in his last outing against Melvin Guillard, I still think he maintains top position for a large portion of this fight and rides out a clear decision win. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Gleison Tibau.

Brad: I don't know who Josh Neer pissed off, but Gleison Tibau presents him with many of the same challenges he just succumbed to against Kurt Pellegrino. Strong wrestler, good top control, good submission game. Sounds like a recipe for a repeat performance of UFC 101. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Gleison Tibau.

Joshua: If both fighters fought the way they should, then this would be an easy call. Tibau has a wrestling and grappling advantage over Neer, but we all know Tibau can be a toss-up regarding whether or not he will perform well. I am still calling Tibau to win it, as I think he will control enough of the fight on the ground to score the victory, but I wouldn’t be blown away if Neer ended up getting the nod. Winner via Split Decision: Gleison Tibau.

Matt: Gleison Tibau has a ton of potential, unfortunately sometimes he doesn't use his abilities anywhere near the level at which he should. In the Stevenson fight, he tied Stevenson in knots to start the fight then ran in with his head down and got caught in Stevenson's guillotine, which almost always end your night. However, he's fighting Josh Neer, who I actually don't think has any really solid way of winning this fight. Neer's takedown defense is poor and Tibau's top control is good, unless we see Neer using some power that we've never seen out of him before, this fight picks itself. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Gleison Tibau.


The Final Forecast: Gleison Tibau performs his own operation on "the Dentist".


Joe "Daddy" Stevenson vs. Spencer "The King" Fisher

Jamie: Both fighters are coming off wins, Stevenson after beating Nate Diaz, and Fisher is on a very impressive three-fight win streak with his most recent being over UFC veteran, Caol Uno. A lot of this fight will be dictated on the feet, with both fighters having decent striking skills and both will look to gain the upper hand on the feet early on. If either fighter gets at a disadvantage, look for one to shoot for the takedown to try and swing the momentum of the fight. I can see Fisher riding this fight out to decision victory. Winner via Split Decision: Spencer Fisher.

Jack: With Spencer Fisher rallying for an unjustifiable fight with BJ Penn, I can see him being quickly derailed by one of the champion's former victims. Joe Daddy's just the better fighter here and if he sticks to what he's best at looks for takedowns, Fisher has a hard time convincing me e can win this fight. Look for Stevenson to dominate the ground game and perhaps even finish this with one of his trademark guillotines, maybe even from the mount. Why not? Winner via 3rd round Submission: Joe Stevenson.

Brad: I don't understand Spencer Fisher. Whatever compelled him to think he deserves a fight with BJ Penn is beyond me, and I see this fight doing nothing but backing-up my position. Joe will put Spencer on his back repeatedly and serve up a dish of the top control special, which seems to be a popular dish on this event's main card. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Joe Stevenson.

Joshua: I think Fisher will be completely outclassed here by Stevenson, who I believe will be able to take the fight wherever he wants. I don’t think Spencer will have a big advantage on the feet where he will surely want to keep it and Daddy will have his way with "the King" on the ground. I actually see Joe coming out aggressive and confident having trained at Jackson’s for this fight and securing a first round choke. Winner via 1st round Submission: Joe Stevenson.

Matt: The heir to the lightweight throne is clearly Spencer Fisher, sure he's lost a lot, sure his takedown defense is mediocre at best, sure he's getting older but... yeah, he's not getting anywhere near B.J. or B.J.'s belt, no matter how Florian-esque he is in his cries for it. He's up against Joe Stevenson, who as we all know is a tough customer. He's coming off a win against Nate Diaz where he firmly controlled Diaz and beat him up, expect to see that. Fisher is good with his hands, but I don't see him being able to keep it on the feet, Joe's like a dog and he'll keep coming forward, and this is going to the floor. I expect Fisher to get worn out by Joe Daddy's pace, but he probably won't get stopped. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Joe Stevenson.


The Final Forecast: Joe Stevenson dashes Fisher's dreams of challenging Penn for the belt, by simply being the better mixed martial artist.


Anthony "Rumble" Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki "Zenko" Yoshida

Jamie: This fight is a battle of the striker versus the grappler. Johnson is a very heavy-handed, but stiff power striker, while Yoshida is an obviously talented ground practitioner. Johnson will look to keep this fight standing while aiming for an early knockout, throwing his entire varied arsenal of strikes to try and put Yoshida away. Yoshida will look to hold his own standing, but it is imperative that he gets the fight to the floor and tests Johnson’s submission defense. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Yoshiyuki Yoshida.

Jack: A potentially interesting affair here between a wrestler with relatively good striking and a judoka with comparably mediocre stand-up skills. As long as Johnson doesn't try to grab hold of Yoshida when they clinch he should be able to avoid the ground here and even get the finish on the feet. Johnson continues his impressive streak of finishes and leaves Yoshida pondering his future with the UFC. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Anthony Johnson.

Brad: I'm not sure how many people know this, but Yoshida's management team actually requested this fight from the UFC. They believe that if Zenko can survive the first 3-4 minutes standing up, Rumble will lose his steam and the judoka will bust out some sexual healing on the ground. Oh wait, that's another judoka who should be fighting at 170. Either way, I don't see Yoshida's hopes coming to fruition. Johnson will have a field day on the feet, and while the knockout won't be as spectacular as the one Josh Koscheck delivered, there will be one, nonetheless. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Anthony Johnson.

Joshua: I don’t think Yoshida has what it takes to close the distance and score a takedown on the extremely athletic and explosive "Rumble" Johnson. I see A.J. using his reach and speed to keep his distance and land frustrating strikes on "Zenko" until he is worn down to the point where he will be KO’d. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Anthony Johnson.

Matt: If what Brad said is true, Yoshida surrounds himself with worse people than Rihanna and Michael Jackson combined. Johnson is too strong, too fast, and too much for Yoshida. Considering the facial reconstruction that Koscheck gifted him with, I don't see what hope he has against "Rumble". I expect Johnson to abuse him like, well, Rihanna. He'll  bring the pain like Josh Haynes, only he'll actually bring it. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Anthony Johnson.


The Final Forecast: Johnson makes Yoshida's head rumble with a nasty KO.



Preliminary Card


Ryan "The Master" Bader vs. Eric "Red" Schafer

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Ryan Bader.

Jack: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Ryan Bader.

Brad: Winner via 1st round TKO: Ryan Bader

Joshua: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Ryan Bader.

Matt: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Ryan Bader.


The Final Forecast: Ryan Bader beats Eric Schafer like a red-headed step-child.


Antoni Hardonk vs. Patrick "Get Hype" Barry

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Antoni Hardonk.

Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Patrick Barry.

Brad: Winner via 3rd round Submission: Antoni Hardonk.

Joshua: Winner by 2nd round (T)KO: Antoni Hardonk.

Matt: Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Antoni Hardonk.


The Final Forecast: Antoni Hardonk wins the battle of average kickboxers becoming average MMA fighters.


Yushin "Thunder" Okami vs. Chael Sonnen

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Yushin Okami.

Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Yushin Okami.

Brad: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Yushin Okami.

Joshua: Winner by Unanimous Decision: Yushin Okami.

Matt: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Yushin Okami.


The Final Forecast: Yushin lets the thunder roll on Sonnen for flapping his gums earlier this week.


Jorge "El Conquistador" Rivera vs. Rob "The Rosedale Reaper" Kimmons

Jamie: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Jorge Rivera.

Jack: Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Jorge Rivera.

Brad: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Rob Kimmons.

Joshua: Winner via 1st round Submission: Rob Kimmons.

Matt: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Rob Kimmons.


The Final Forecast: Kimmons ends Rivera's night with some kind of submission.


Kyle Kingsbury vs.  Razak Al-Hassan

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Razak Al-Hassan.

Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Razak Al-Hassan.

Brad: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Razak Al-Hassan.

Joshua: Winner by 3rd round (T)KO: Kyle Kingsbury.

Matt: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Kyle Kingsbury.


The Final Forecast: Al-Hassan bounces back after a disjointed performance against Steve Cantwell.


Stefan Struve vs. Chase Gormley

Jamie: Winner via 1st round Submission: Stefan Struve.

Jack: Winner via 1st round Submission: Stefan Struve.

Brad: Winner via 1st round Submission: Stefan Struve.

Joshua: Winner by 2nd round Submission: Stefan Struve.

Matt: Winner via 1st round Submission: Stefan Struve.


The Final Forecast: Struve uses his lanky frame to submit Gormley within two rounds.