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The FightLockdown Forecast - UFC 105: Couture vs. Vera
Written by Miles Hackett   
Friday, 13 November 2009 17:30
Tomorrow afternoon at 3pm EST, UFC 105 will be airing from Manchester, England, on SpikeTV with a number of intriguing match-ups. Giving you your forecast tonight are:

Brad Taschuk (34-22, 60.7%)
Joshua Taylor (31-20, 60.8%)
Matt Bremner (15-6, 71.4%)
Jack Barrington (23-13, 63.3%)
Miles Hackett (28-17, 62.2%)


Randy “The Natural” Couture vs. Brandon “The Truth” Vera

Brad Taschuk: I will forego my normal worries about a fighter debuting at a new weightclass, since Randy Couture has done this before, and even at his advanced age, he takes such good care of his body that the cut to 205 shouldn’t affect him too much. Those fears aside, I’m still not siding with Couture in this fight. Randy was outstruck pretty handily by Minotaro in his last fight, and I think Vera is a better overall striker than Nog. As far as Randy’s usual tactics of working someone up against the cage and wearing them down, I think Vera should be able to avoid that being his fate, since he also has an extensive Greco-Roman background (though it should be noted that Tim Sylvia effectively employed that strategy. It should also be noted that Sylvia outweighed Vera by damn near 60 lbs come fight night). I think Vera will control the distance with his kicks and length, and avoid Couture wearing on him. This will be another lacklustre fight at 205 to Vera, but a win over Couture should get him some unwarranted title consideration. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Brandon Vera.

Joshua Taylor: This is a tough call for me because my brain says Couture will control and take the decision like he is so good at, but my heart says Vera will take advantage of this huge opportunity and pull out the win. In this case, I am going with my heart. Vera has been inconsistent in his recent fights because I don’t think he was totallyfocused and motivated, but I don’t think that will be a problem in this fight. I think Brandon will use kicks and reach to keep the distance and frustrate Couture. I don’t think Vera has the one punch KO power to put Randy down, however, I do think that if he sticks to his game plan he can take the decision. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Brandon Vera.

Matt Bremner: I'm going to open this by saying how much I laothe this fight. I loathe it as a headliner, I loathe it as a co-headliner, I loathe it as a fight, period. Anyway, in a battle of guys who were struggling to get it done at heavyweight, Brandon Vera wants to prove he is still the guy he was when he broke onto the UFC scene in 2005. Oddly, his opponent also wants to prove that he's the same man he was back then. For me this boils down to the fact that I don't think Vera is past his big fight jitters, and an unimpressive win over Krystof Soszynski isn't going to change my mind. I think Randy is able to get on Vera, wear him down and take a decision, because that was Randy does. My biggest question going into this fight is what happens in the clinch, can Vera use his knees like he did against Mir? Can Randy beat Vera up along the cage like he did to Gonzaga? Furthermore, is Randy's chin really as questionable as we saw in the Nogueira fight? This fight should do a better job of answering questions for people than it will at entertaining them. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Randy Couture.

Jack Barrington: Okay. so no surprises that headlining this rather uninspiring card is a rather uninspiring fight. In his last stint at 205 this fight would be a relatively straightforward win for Couture, as he has the clinch game and wrestling to outwork Vera and test his heart. Since his lay-off though, Randy has seemed to be slowing somewhat and his chin looked highly suspect in his last outing where he was dominated by Nogueira. I still think Vera is caught between two weight-classes and, if Randy has a good cut and can deal with Vera's stand-up long enough to clinch, he'll be able to wear him down and take a clear UD. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Randy Couture.

Miles Hackett: Looks like I get to play the tie-breaker, yay. I’ve never been impressed by what Brandon Vera has been able to do in the octagon, and I’ve held him to his word ever since he said of himself: “don’t believe the hype; believe what you see.” Vera’s not particularly remarkable anywhere, but a well-rounded fighter, nonetheless. Being merely “good” won’t take you far against even an aged Randy Couture though. Vera has been mentally shattered in fights before and I think that Randy will be able to exploit that both in the clinch and eventually on the ground. Unless Vera catches Couture entering the clinch with a knee, I foresee Randy picking up his first W at 205 in over 4 years, further leaving Brandon Vera questioning his relevance in the light-heavyweight division. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Randy Couture.


The Final Forecast: Randy Couture successfully relegates Brandon Vera’s ego to where it probably belongs.


Dan “The Outlaw” Hardy vs. Mike “Quick” Swick

Brad: I’ve been torn on this fight for a while. On one hand, Hardy looked very susceptible to the takedowns and ground game of Marcus Davis, which would point strongly towards this being Swick’s fight. On the other hand, Swick has terrible defensive striking. He doesn’t move his head, he leaves his hands hanging out after punches, and doesn’t tuck his chin at all. Coupled with Hardy’s proven power, that seems to be bad news for Swick. So which way to go? As much as this is a #1 contender’s match, neither guy is really all that proven against top competition, but I think Swick has at least faced better competition and that should give him an edge. Look for Swick to avoid having his head knocked off and exploit Hardy’s under-developed ground game. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Mike Swick.

Joshua: In this number one contender fight we have a streaking powerful striker in Dan Hardy fighting the well-rounded Mike Swick. While I enjoy Hardy’s fights, I really don’t think he is at a level where he can hang with someone as talented as Mike Swick who, in my opinion, is somewhat underrated. Hardy is a resilient fighter who can take punishment so I don’t see ‘Quick’ being able to finish him, but I do see a clear cut decision victory.
Winner via Unanimous Decision: Mike Swick.

Matt: Swick and Hardy have been engaged in a war of words for some time now, with the bigger jerk depending on whose camp you sit in. As for the fight itself, my inner fanboy wants me to take Hardy, he's interesting, funny, has great hands and a great attitude, but all that and a split decision win over Marcus Davis doesn't get him a win in this fight. Swick is smart, and while his defensive striking is awful and he relies too much on his perceived quickness, he still has the tools to win this one. He can get Hardy down, he can keep him there and that's all he'll need to do. Saving a really sloppy shot by Swick or him wanting to shut Hardy up the Hendo way, he should grind out a nod from the judges. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Mike Swick.

Jack: Like most of Hardy's fights we've seen a fair bit of "trash talk" between these two leading up to their encounter this saturday. Neither are a realistic threat to the belt, but they are fairly matched, and if this stays standing, it could be fun. I have a feeling it won't, however, and rather than showcase his supposedly amazing hand speed, Swick takes a similar route to the one he followed when he fought Marcus Davis. Look for Swick to lay on Hardy for three rounds. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Mike Swick.

Miles: This fight boils down to whether or not Mike Swick wants to Kampmann his contendership. As the others pointed out, Swick’s hands may be fast (probably not as fast as he seems to believe), but his defense is abysmal, and anyone with decent striking and power can exploit that. I don’t think Swick’s going to strike for long here though. An important common opponent between Hardy and Swick is Marcus Davis, and those fights unfolded in a relatively similar manner (fence battles and lay-and-pray). I think Hardy will struggle to keep the fight standing and will ultimately be controlled for its duration, as Swick will take the easiest avenue towards a meeting with the WW king early next year. No matter who wins tomorrow, I think it’s going to be very hard for the UFC to make fans excited about GSP’s next defense. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Mike Swick.


The Final Forecast: Mike is “Quick” to take the fight to the ground, where he’ll out-hussle “The Outlaw” for a unanimous decision.


Denis Kang vs. Michael “The Count” Bisping

Brad: Denis Kang is the more talented of the two fighters in this matchup, but as we have seen time and time again in MMA (with Kang supplying many of those moments), that doesn’t always mean he will win. Bisping is the type of fighter who makes life difficult for his opponent by moving away and peppering them with shots, and for as much crap as he takes for being pillow-fisted, he does know how to finish fights. Kang is just the type of fragile mental personality who will get his feathers ruffled with Bisping’s constant movement and pitter-patter attack, and while I don’t see him diving into a submission as he seems to love doing, I can see him packing it in mentally after half of the fight, even though he’ll still be well in the fight. Winner via Split Decision: Michael Bisping.

Joshua: This is a dangerous fight for Bisping because Kang is not a well-known fighter, but he does have the skills to beat “The Count” and a second consecutive loss might really hurt his marketability. However, Kang has a well-documented tendency to drop fights he should win so you are never sure if a focused and game Denis will show up. In this fight though, I believe Kang will take advantage of the opportunity he has been given and fight smart and hard. I see Kang using his well-rounded skills to outpoint Bisping en route to a decision victory.  Winner via Unanimous Decision: Denis Kang.

Matt: Going into the Dan Henderson fight, I made it known that I thought the only way for Bisping to snatch a win was if Dan was stupid. I believed that Bisping could jab his way to a win if Dan didn't use his wrestling and just threw wild haymakers all over the Octagon. Well, Dan did wing right hands and the only person that wound up looking stupid was “The Count”. Bisping draws MW stand out Denis Kang in both men's “resuscitate your title run” fight. Unfortunately for Mike, Kang has the advantage in everything except Fight IQ, as he makes more boneheaded decisions than the Toronto Blue Jays management. However, I just don't see Kang getting taken to the mat (we've all seen Bisping shoot for a takedown) or getting hit hard/often enough by Bisping. Make no mistake, Bisping can win this fight, but Kang has to let him. Winner via Split Decision: Denis Kang.

Jack: A fight that's sure to get the crowd in Manchester going as Michael Bisping tries to bounce back from his devastating loss to Dan Henderson. I give Kang the edge everywhere here, to be frank. Bisping’s best bet is to keep it standing and pepper Kang with shots, but unless Kang does something stupid - which he’s been renowned for in the past - he should take the win here. Winner via Split Decision: Denis Kang.

Miles: I’m late to the dance on this one, as everyone’s pretty much covered what I think. Kang has the edge standing (mainly with regard to power) and in the wrestling department, which are two key advantages that will dictate this fight. Expect Bisping to come out fired-up, mixing-up his striking, while circling the right direction in an attempt to frustrate Kang. If Kang feels that he’s losing the stand-up, I do think he’ll be able to get Bisping down, where he’ll just have to avoid submissions and stay busy. I could see Bisping rallying back half-way through the fight, but being put on his back repeatedly won’t sit well with the judges. Winner via Split Decision: Denis Kang.


The Final Forecast: Denis Kang nearly cuts himself on a razor thin decision win.


James “Lightning” Wilks vs. Matt “The Immortal” Brown

Brad: The fact that this fight is on the main card really shows that this isn’t the UFC’s best effort. While Wilks did look impressive on the TUF finale, he’s not a main card fighter yet. And Matt Brown, as tough as he is, will never be a main card fighter. Wilks is at his best in the submission game, and Brown has struggled in the past with submissions, as 5 of his 7 career losses have come via that route. Expect Wilks to continue the Jiu-Jitsu clinic he started on Damarques Johnson in this one. Winner via 1st round Submission: James Wilks.

Joshua: Two guys who actually surprised me in their last outings. This should be a fun and interesting fight to see who is ready to take that step up in competition. I believe Brown will have the advantage on the feet while Wilks will hold the advantage on the ground. In the end I think Brown will control the majority of the fight by keeping his distance and striking to take a decision. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Matt Brown.

Matt: The TUF 9 winner that actually had a decent fight in the finale also gets the better end of the match up stick in this match up. Matt Brown is a tough fighter and he's.... he's tough, but that won't be enough to get him a win. He has shown himself to have serious trouble on the ground and is no stranger to being submitted, a friend I believe he will once again reunite with. Wilks will get him down early, beat him up a little and then when Brown gets desperate, Wilks will lock something in and give the fans something to cheer about on a card where there won't be much home cooking. Winner via 1st round Submission: James Wilks.

Jack: This one could prove to be somewhat interesting. What is clearly lacking in quality has the potential to be made up in fireworks here, if Brown can stay off his back for too long and fend off Wilks' submission game. I think he can, just not all night. Hopefully we get a fun first round where Brown can showcase his ever-improving stand-up, but I think Wilks will expose Brown’s weaknesses again, leading to a second round sub. Winner via 2nd round Submission: James Wilks.

Miles: It felt so good picking Wilks to beat Damarques Johnson and actually seeing it in the fashion that it was done. Like my colleagues have foregrounded, Brown has improved his striking significantly (just ask Pete Sell’s dome), but his kryptonite has always been his ground game. Wilks has a marked advantage on the ground, perhaps moreso than Brown does on the feet and I predict that he’ll manage to exploit that hole within two rounds. Winner via 2nd round Submission: James Wilks.


The Final Forecast: Wilks proves that Brown certainly isn’t “Immortal” when BJJ is involved.


Ross Pearson vs. Aaron Riley

Brad: Good for Ross Pearson for winning TUF. However, I think that’s going to far and away be the highlight of his MMA career. The guy really showed me nothing on the show or in the finale which made me think he’s ready to be a UFC caliber fighter. His pressing people against the cage skills are there… but that’s about it. Conversely, Aaron Riley is a legit UFC fighter, and even if he doesn’t always employ the smartest gameplans, he can often pull it off due to his unnaturally hard and hobbit-esque head. Pearson will have his moments of riveting cage pressing, but Riley will outscore him on the whole. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Aaron Riley.

Joshua: I will be honest that I haven’t been impressed by either of these fighters and I am not really looking forward to this fight. I think that Riley training at Jackson’s will make a difference in improving his skill and his game plan, leading me to believe that he will take a decision which has become his signature in his recent history. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Aaron Riley.

Matt: Ross Pearson showed one thing above all else in the TUF Finale, he can outlast fighters. He quite literally outlasted Andre Winner in a cage smothering that was as interesting as it was inspiring (see: not at all). Aaron Riley has almost 40 fights, is a solid wrestler and as much as I hate to use this as a reason to pick someone, he trains with Greg Jackson. I think Riley will be able to beat up Pearson when Pearson's “outwit, outlast” approach fails. As an aside, I find this match up to be a head-scratcher. Riley is a game opponent, it was a long time before Bisping had to fight someone of Riley's caliber. Winner by Unanimous Decision: Aaron Riley.

Jack: Riley will score takedowns here. Riley will keep top position and Riley will work some ground-and-pound. Pearson will... try to press Riley against the cage? I really see Pearson struggling here, as Riley's a UFC-level fighter, whereas Pearson really doesn’t seem to be. Riley takes a UD by winning a cautious fight everywhere. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Aaron Riley.

Miles: Yeah, I’m with the others in asking “what the hell is this doing on a main card?” Aaron Riley is tough, under-appreciated, and the TUF hype always seems to cloud people’s judgement towards the show winners. Experience, tenacity, and a more well-rounded game will earn Riley the win in this affair, although Pearson is going to be too tough to finish. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Aaron Riley.


The Final Forecast: Riley wins favour with the judges by upholding the fence’s restraining order against Pearson following the TUF9 Finale.


Terry Etim vs. Shannon Gugerty

Brad: Winner via 1st round Submission: Terry Etim.

Joshua: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Terry Etim.

Matt: Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Terry Etim.

Jack: Winner via 3rd round Submission: Terry Etim.

Miles: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Terry Etim.


The Final Forecast: Etim takes the fight, and goes on to (T)KO the North American audience with his bafflingly cacophonous accent.


John “The Hitman” Hathaway vs. “Relentless” Paul Taylor

Brad: Winner via 2nd round Submission: John Hathaway.

Joshua: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Paul Taylor.

Matt: Winner via Unanimous Decision: John Hathaway.

Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: John Hathaway.

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: John Hathaway.


The Final Forecast: John “I’m not related to that silly twat Anne” Hathaway grinds out Taylor for 15.


Matt Riddle vs. Nick Osipczak

Brad: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Matt Riddle.

Joshua: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Nick Osipczak.

Matt: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Matt Riddle.

Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Matt Riddle.

Miles: Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Matt Riddle.


The Final Forecast: Osipczak fails to solve Matt’s riddle.


Paul “Tellys” Kelly vs. Dennis Siver

Brad: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Paul Kelly.

Joshua: Winner via 1st round Submission: Dennis Siver.

Matt: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Paul Kelly.

Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Paul Kelly.

Miles: Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Paul Kelly.


The Final Forecast: Paul Kelly stops another German attempting to conquer in England.


Jared Hamann vs. Alexander “The Mauler” Gustafsson

Brad: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Jared Hamman.

Joshua: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Jared Hamman.

Matt: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO Alexander Gustafsson.

Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jared Hamman.

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jared Hamman.


The Final Forecast: Hamman’s experience on larger stages against higher level competition carries him to victory against “The Mauler.”


Andre Winner vs. Rolando “The Crazy Cuban” Delgado

Brad: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Andre Winner.

Joshua: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Andre Winner.

Matt: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Andre Winner.

Jack: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Andre Winner.

Miles: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Roli Delgado.


The Final Forecast: Winner rebounds from a boring loss to Ross Pearson.