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| The FightLockdown Forecast - UFC 106: Ortiz vs. Griffin 2 |
| Written by Miles Hackett |
| Friday, 20 November 2009 14:09 |
 Live from the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada, UFC 106 will be broadcast with a significantly different card than originally planned. Giving you your forecast for this event, in an attempt to redeem themselves after UFC 105: "Upset City" are:Brad Taschuk: (38-29, 56.7%)
Jamie Hughes: (28-28, 50%)
Miles Hackett: (31-25, 55.4%)
Joshua Taylor: (36-26, 58.1%)
Jack Barrington: (27-20, 57.4%)
Tito "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin
Brad Taschuk: The rematch of all rematches… or so the UFC would like you to believe in their desperate attempts to hype this card and this fight as something fans were constantly clamouring for. In reality, the winner of this fight only manages to re-enter relevance in the Light Heavyweight division. There are question marks about both fighters entering this fight. How will Forrest Griffin fare in his first fight since Anderson Silva forcibly entered his soul without permission? Will Tito actually be healthy? Will the layoff affect him? I actually think Tito’s layoff will do him good, and he will put on the best performance we’ve seen from him in years. Given that Forrest is still essentially the same fighter he’s always been, I think a healthy Tito will be enough to put a more decisive victory on him this time. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Tito Ortiz.
Jamie Hughes: In this fight, the perfect execution of game-plans will be vital for both fighters. Griffin should look to employ a hit and move strategy, using his reach to keep out of Ortiz’s takedown range, while also utilizing his kicks to keep Ortiz on the back foot. Ortiz should use boxing to close the range on Griffin, get him down to the mat, and do what he does best; ground and pound. This fight will answer many questions for fans, such as “is Ortiz still a top level fighter?” and “has Griffin recovered from the demoralizing loss to Anderson Silva?” I personally feel that Ortiz will use his wrestling to his advantage and pound out a TKO victory, late in the fight. Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Tito Ortiz.
Miles Hackett: This tilt is incredibly difficult to analyze because we just don’t know how much Tito Ortiz’s back was a factor in his most recent outings, which weren’t complete cakewalks for his opponents. Since the last meeting between these fighters, Forrest Griffin has improved his stand-up significantly, but I think stylistically he’s still at a disadvantage to Tito, for a number of reasons. First of all, Forrest throws a lot of kicks now, which is risky when facing a strong wrestler. Secondly, his takedown defense hasn’t developed all that much since their last encounter. Lastly, Forrest’s use of the open guard does not bode well for him against a guy who is renowned for doing serious damage inside the guard and for having excellent submission defense from the top position. Unless Forrest uses angles and movement standing to force Tito to unsuccessfully shoot from the outside, he’s going to have issues convincing the judges that he’s winning the fight from his back. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Tito Ortiz.
Joshua Taylor: I really don’t see a whole lot different between this fight and the first outing other than the fact that Griffin has improved in his overall skill set by a small amount. I still think Tito will come out strong early and possibly win the first round, but Forrest will likely take over the fight and win the second and third convincingly to take a decision victory. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Forrest Griffin.
Jack Barrington: A fight between two former champions who many feel will never get too close to the title again. While I would be inclined to agree with that statement, this fight is nonetheless an interesting rematch between fighters with contrasting styles. Although the improvements in Forrest’s game are no doubt overstated by the UFC, they are still there, and he is a better fighter than the one who lost a close decision to Tito back at UFC 59. While the stylistic advantage has to go to Ortiz and there are question marks over both fighters as this is a return of sorts for each of them, with his injury issues and constant talk of being in the “best shape of his life” I just don’t feel confident picking Tito here. Whatever the mental effect of the crushing defeat to Anderson Silva may be Forrest will still show up in shape, it is the doubt I have about being able to say the same thing for Tito that makes me pick him to lose a close decision with Forrest stealing the last two rounds by keeping them standing and getting the better on the feet. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Forrest Griffin.
The Final Forecast: Tito returns to form, sending Forrest on another marathon.
Josh "Kos" Koscheck vs. Anthony "Rumble" Johnson
Brad: Anthony Johnson finally takes a step up to top caliber WW competition, and in doing so, eases himself into a guy who has a skill-set to really give him trouble… but will likely choose not to use it. The stand-up has treated Josh Koscheck well in his recent outings, but none of his recent opponents have been nearly as dangerous “Rumble”. I think Koscheck will at least want to test the waters in the stand-up, and I actually think he’ll do so longer than he should, and end-up getting himself in trouble. Johnson will continue the WW division’s transition to a batch of fresh new challengers for GSP after this one is done. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Anthony Johnson.
 Jamie: This fight is going to be a big test for both fighters. We will see if Johnson can deal with a dominant wrestler in Koscheck and if Koscheck can continue his run back towards the 170lb belt. The game-plan for Koscheck is simple in this fight; use his wrestling and get Johnson down and control him. On the feet, Koscheck should use his jab to stay well out of distance of Johnson’s power, and set-up his takedown attempts wisely. For Johnson, it’s much of what he has done in his last few fights; stand up, force an exchange, and land one of his devastating power shots. Against a wily veteran in Kos, he will need to time them right in order to avoid being taken down. I can see Johnson meeting his match in this fight and Koscheck using his wrestling to control him en route to a decision victory. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Josh Koscheck. Miles: There’s been a serious lack of fight IQ with WW fighters as of late, with Kampmann and Swick messing up their chances at contention by fighting losing battles, stylistically. If Josh Koscheck actually remembered what he was best at, then I’d be inclined to pick him. However, he still believes he’s Chuck Liddell and that’s a problem when facing someone as powerful as Anthony Johnson. Koscheck’s formulaic one-two combination that knocked out Yoshida and Trigg isn’t going to work here. He’s at a reach disadvantage in this fight, and that’s not including the ridiculous reach Johnson gets with his kicks. Unless Koscheck wakes from delusion, he’ll be napping in the center of the octagon, courtesy of another stiff striker. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Anthony Johnson.
Joshua: In the only fight (other than Rogerio/Cane) on this card that matters, we have two top WW’s going at it to see who will head towards title contention. While Kos definitely has the skills to put A.J. in trouble and win this fight, I am worried he won’t go to that skill-set as early as he should. I see each fighter feeling the other out on the feet for a while and we know with Johnson that just a short while on the feet can spell trouble. I think A.J. will know he has to act early and will come out aggressive, as is his style. I think he will land on Koscheck early and end the fight. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Anthony Johnson.
Jack: I think this fight simply comes down to how Koscheck wants to play it; in my mind it is all rather straightforward. If Koscheck tries to stand, he will lose and perhaps even get caught and be finished, if he uses his wrestling and top control then he takes a wide decision. I think there is no doubt here that Johnson the more diverse and ultimately better striker, however, I still believe that outside of GSP there is not a welterweight in the world that can consistently stuff Koscheck’s takedowns. If Koscheck pushes consistently for them then while “Rumble” may have success early on, sooner or later he will be on his back. I think Koscheck will put his ego to one side and actually use his strength in this fight and take a very clear decision. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Josh Koscheck.
The Final Forecast: Rumble picks up a meaningful KO, while Koscheck loses more brain cells.
Amir Sadollah vs. Phil "The New York Badass" Baroni
Brad: From a completely meaningful WW bout, we go to absolutely useless WW belt -- unless of course you’re trying to determine “The Best Eva!” The fact that this fight is on the main card shows how much this card has fallen from grace. Baroni hasn’t been a factor in years, and Amir got stopped early (perhaps too early?) in his actual UFC debut. This fight is mildly interesting, because Baroni holds a wrestling edge and a power edge on Sadollah, just as Johny Hendricks did. Amir Sadollah has only ever shown he has heart, modestly technical striking, and the ability to submit very green and unskilled grapplers. I think Baroni manages to put his heavy hands on Sadollah’s chin - just as Hendricks did - garnering an early stoppage, further de-railing the Sadollah train which never really got started, further planting his flag as the “Eva“. Wow, in 2009 I just picked Phil Baroni in a main card UFC fight. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Phil Baroni.
Jamie: I think the majority of this fight will be played out on the feet and will come down to who has the better stand up. I can see Sadollah starting well, but I think Baroni will eventually hurt him and finish the fight. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Phil Baroni.
Miles: An issue that I think my colleagues (so far) may be overlooking is cardio. Phil Baroni is prone to tiring faster than a geriatric walking up the stairs. It becomes a matter of surviving the early storm for Sadollah, while evading the predictable power-punching combinations of Baroni. Once Baroni tires, I can see Sadollah picking him apart standing with kicks. As much as I’d like to pick “the New York Badass” to successfully return, I think his best years are behind him. Although, I would be down for him going back to Japan for a rubber match with future Super Hulk GP winner, Minowaman! Winner via 3rd round Submission: Amir Sadollah.
Joshua: Really can’t believe this is on the main card of a PPV as it barely belongs on the main card of a Fight Night. Anyways, Baroni hasn’t beaten anyone of any worth since 2006 and while Amir isn’t exactly elite, he does possess finishing ability. I think Amir will play it safe and survive the first round flurry of Baroni and by the second round he will take advantage of an exhausted Baroni and submit him. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Amir Sadollah.
Jack: Are there really any fans out there clamouring for this fight? Well aside from Pauly J (one of our forum members)? I doubt many MMA enthusiasts will really be all too excited for Baroni’s return. As far as this fight goes, it may be as unpredictable as it is uninteresting due to the fact that we just don’t know that much about Amir still, and of course, because it involves Phil “The Best Eva” Baroni. Baroni appears to have the edge standing, but with how quickly his last fight ended we just don’t know how much Amir has improved since his TUF stint. I am virtually lost when picking this fight as both men are entirely unpredictable; I’ll go with Baroni gassing in the second, but still taking home a close split decision. Winner via Split Decision: Phil Baroni.
The Final Forecast: "The New York Badass" successfully reintroduces himself as the “Best Eva” to casual fans, who see a 170lb, cardio-starved hulk winging bombs at Forrest Griffin Jr. for 3 rounds.
Luis "Banha" Cane vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
Brad: If this isn’t your most anticipated fight on this card, you need to check your sanity. Rogerio Nogueira, one of the few remaining PRIDE superstars who hadn’t yet made his way over to the UFC at long last makes his debut. He faces no easy task in the essentially unbeaten, Luis Cane. These guys have varied, but very effective, stand-up. Rogerio with his extensive Boxing background and Cane with his Muay Thai. The difference is going to be in the ground games of these two. Cane is a black belt, but who isn’t in today’s day of MMA? Nogueira has the clear advantage on the ground, and should this fight go there (which I believe it inevitably will), Rogerio will teach the youngster what the difference is between a Ricardo Liborio black belt and a Nogueira black belt (despite their shared lineage). Winner via 3rd round Submission: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.
Jamie: This is tough fight for Nogueira to start his UFC career, but if anyone is up to the challenge it’s him. Look for the fight to stay standing for long periods of time, as both fighters are renowned for their love of throwing leather. I feel Nogueira should look to draw Cane into a stand-up battle, but also look to shoot in often to keep Cane guessing, throwing him off of his rhythm. Cane should look to use his crisp Muay Thai striking to keep Nogueira at distance, where he can pick him apart from the outside. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.
Miles: Easily the most interesting fight on the card. Nogueira, when he debuts, will probably be the possessor of the best submission game in the UFC LHW division. His muay thai and boxing are very good as well, but his wrestling still needs a lot of work. Lately, Lil’ Nog hasn’t fought the crème de la crème and I think that might be an issue for him when facing Luis Cane, who is, in my opinion, the dark horse of the 205lb weight-class. Unless Nogueira can get the fight to the ground, I think he’s going to struggle with Cane, who has shown excellent stand-up defense, along with powerful knees, kicks, and punches fired from the southpaw stance. Some may call me crazy, but with staph infection roaming around Black House, Lyoto and Anderson incapable of sparring, and Big Nog out of the picture, Rogerio may not be as prepared as he needs to be for his scrappy, fellow countryman. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Luis Cane.
Joshua: Easily the most intriguing fight on the card for me, and unfortunately, it has received virtually zero hype. Cane is a very tough fighter with KO power and is on a three fight win streak in the UFC. Rogerio is making his debut in the UFC, but has tons of experience facing top notch competition. I really don’t think the “UFC jitters” will effect someone as experienced as Lil’ Nog and I think he will play his game of trading back and forth on the feet until he is able to pull the fight to the ground and eventually submit Cane. Winner via 3rd round Submission: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.
Jack: Now here is a fight that will excite the hardcore fans, Rog-Nog is back in the big leagues, and no doubt, everybody will be hoping for him to find his old form. Cane is no easy opponent and has shown his ability to be patient, along with his striking skills, in his past fights. I think Nog has good enough boxing and a solid enough chin to hang on the feet with Cane and even do some damage of his own, it is on the ground, however, where I feel he has the edge. The ground game is the only place in this fight where someone has a definitive advantage, so if he can get it down, look for Rogerio to pull out the sub. If he can’t I’ll take him via decision, but I feel that this fight will hit the mat and Nog will show his quality. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.
The Final Forecast: Rogerio adds some much needed grappling depth to the UFC and makes an example of Cane with those skills.
Paulo Thiago vs. Jacob "Christmas" Volkmann
Brad: Jacob Volkmann comes into the UFC with extremely little fanfare, but he has credentials which fans often go nuts about. Volkmann is a 3-time D1 all-american, and a World No-Gi grappling champion. Those skills would seem to translate well against Thiago, who posseses a solid submission game, and even though he managed to KO Josh Koscheck, not much else. Volkmann will choose where this fight takes place, and I can see it being almost a carbon copy of the Thiago/Fitch fight. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jacob Volkmann.
Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Paulo Thiago.
Miles: I share the same view as Brad. I believe that Volkmann’s strong background in grappling will nullify Paulo Thiago’s biggest weapon (which certainly isn’t his striking). I, too, expect a dominant victory for Volkmann through takedowns and control. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jacob Volkmann.
Joshua: I have never been impressed will Paulo in his UFC career even though he beat Koscheck. Volkmann certainly has the skills to wrestle this fight to the ground and control Thiago so he can take a decision victory. Jacob apparently has good BJJ as well so he should be safe on the ground with Paulo. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jacob Volkmann.
Jack: Okay, so the late notice replacement fight makes the main card which is kind of weird. Even stranger is the fact that there isn't just a late change of opponent for Hazelett to fight and he ends up sitting out, but go figure. I don't know a whole lot about Volkmann, in all honesty, so this is a strange fight to pick, but Thiago has never impressed me. From what I do know, Volkmann has the wrestling background to dictate where the fight goes and a competent enough ground game to avoid the sub. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jacob Volkmann.
The Final Forecast: "Christmas" comes early for Volkmann, who makes Paulo Thiago have a Jon Fitch flashback. (Really, why is the UFC putting this on the main card, of all the prelim fights?)
 Ben "Killa Bee" Saunders vs. Marcus "The Irish Hand Grenade" Davis
Brad: Winner via 2nd Round (T)KO: Marcus Davis (Will the "Steph Sig Curse" rear its ugly head again?)
Jamie: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Marcus Davis.
Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Marcus Davis.
Joshua: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Marcus Davis.
Jack: Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Marcus Davis.
The Final Forecast: “The Irish Hand Grenade” blows in Saunder’s face.. in a non-homosexual way (not that there’s anything wrong with that.)
Kendall "Da Spyda" Grove vs. Jake Rosholt
Brad: Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Jake Rosholt.
Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jake Rosholt.
Miles: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Jake Rosholt.
Joshua: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Jake Rosholt.
Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jake Rosholt.
The Final Forecast: Jake Rosholt will be the man to blame for Kendall Grove getting cut by the UFC.
Brock Larson vs. Brian Foster
Brad: Winner via 1st round Submission: Brock Larson.
Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Brock Larson.
Miles: Winner via 1st round Submission: Brock Larson.
Joshua: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Brock Larson.
Jack: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Brock Larson.
The Final Forecast: Brock Larson takes out his frustration from his last fight against Brian Foster with a submission in two.
Caol "Uno Shoten" Uno vs. Fabricio "Morango" Camoes
Brad: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Caol Uno.
Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Caol Uno.
Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Caol Uno.
Joshua: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Caol Uno.
Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Caol Uno.
The Final Forecast: The seemingly unsubmittable Caol Uno outscrambles and outworks Camoes for decision in a grappling war.
George Sotiropoulos vs. Jason Dent
Brad: Winner via 2nd round Submission: George Sotiropoulos.
Jamie: Winner via 1st round Submission: George Sotiropoulos.
Miles: Winner via 2nd round Submission: George Sotiropoulos.
Joshua: Winner via 2nd round Submission: George Sotiropoulos.
Jack: Winner via 1st round Submission: George Sotiropoulos.
The Final Forecast: Sotiropoulos continues to show why he’s one of the most exciting, and underappreciated gems in the LW division by tooling Jason Dent on the ground.
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