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The FightLockdown Forecast - UFC 107: Penn vs. Sanchez
Written by Miles Hackett   
Friday, 11 December 2009 00:04
This Saturday from the FedEx Forum in Memphis, Tennessee, the UFC will be bringing us yet another card stacked with incredibly difficult fights to predict. Giving you a heads-up on what to expect is our forecast panel, comprised today of Matt Bremner, Joshua Taylor, Brad Taschuk, Jack Barrington, and Miles Hackett. Read on to find out who they believe will emerge victorious, after the jump!



Main Card


B.J. "The Prodigy" Penn vs. Diego "Nightmare" Sanchez

Matt Bremner: In the best main event we've seen in a few months, B.J. Penn takes on Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez. You'll hear a lot of hum and hawing about Diego's great cardio and his love of sword fighting. Well, I've heard more than enough of people questioning B.J.'s cardio after he’s proven them wrong. He went deep against Sherk, outpacing him and out-striking him, and took Florian down and subbed him easily in the 4th round. Diego is in great shape, but great shape rarely wins fights, it can happen, but it won't. B.J. has better striking, takedown defense, jiu jitsu and no worse than equal wrestling. B.J. holds all the advantages here and I can't think of a reason to give the edge to Diego. I don't think that B.J. finishes Diego though, as Diego is too competent on the ground. Winner via Unanimous Decision: B.J. Penn.

Joshua Taylor: In my opinion, the best main event since Nog/Couture, as we have an exciting and intriguing LW battle between B.J. Penn and Diego Sanchez. Both fighters are extremely talented and aggressive, so I think we are in for a real treat with this match-up. Most of the talk has been about Diego’s cardio and his way to win will be to wear B.J. down, but personally, I don’t think we have reason to believe that B.J.’s cardio is bad at LW. However, I do think Diego has the skills and heart to withstand what B.J. throws at him and come back with his own onslaught in enough rounds to win the judges’ favor. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Diego Sanchez.

Brad Taschuk: Since this match was announced, I’ve been searching for a way to pick Diego Sanchez in this fight. It isn’t because I dislike B.J., or anything of that sort, but I just want to see the close fight that a lot of people think this is. Moral of the story, I couldn’t (and that’s coming from a guy who managed to convince himself that Forrest Griffin had a legitimate shot against Anderson Silva). B.J. has the more crisp, powerful striking (although Diego holds an advantage with kicks, just like Florian did) and B.J. has the better ground game. Sanchez’s wrestling has looked pretty bad since he dropped to LW as well, so I’d even give the edge there to B.J. Diego may have a cardio edge, but he hasn’t looked to fight with the same relentless pace he did at WW. At the end of the day, B.J. will get him down at some point, get to half guard, underhook Diego’s far leg and step over to mount like he always does, eventually take Diego’s back, and submit him. Winner via 3rd round Submission: B.J. Penn.

Jack Barrington: A relevant main event here which is more than we've become accustomed to with the last two events. While Diego way have been fast-tracked to a title shot, he's still a legitimate number one contender and should be able to make this fight interesting. That being said, B.J. has a definitive edge in power, technical striking, the ability to take a shot, takedown defence and maybe even takedowns, and of course on the ground... so just your usual B.J. Penn fight at 155lbs then. Diego's tough and will push the pace, but simply doesn't have the wrestling or striking to outpoint Penn in this one. He won't get stopped, but he'll lose a clear decision. Winner via Unanimous Decision: B.J. Penn.

Miles Hackett: Like the others, with the exception of Joshua, I don’t think Diego has the tools to give B.J. problems. He’s not an exceptional wrestler, he lacks a grinding type of clinch, and he’s not significantly larger than Penn. The only area he excels in that B.J. has shown a susceptibility to in the past is the kicking game. I don’t think B.J.’s cardio is questionable anymore, as he’s shown an increased ability to measure his pace, explode when necessary, and methodically pick his opponents apart. Diego’s a gamer and I think he’ll be able to make it to the scorecards, but they won’t be in his favour as the more mature Penn will trump him on the ground and standing. Winner via Unanimous Decision: B.J. Penn.


The Final Forecast: Penn dominates Sanchez, leaving him screaming “No!” at the judges’ decision.


Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo

Matt: In a battle that will inexplicably put one of these two fighters inside striking distance of the title, we have Mir and Kongo. If Frank Mir thinks he's a kickboxer, he will look like he did against Lesnar in their second fight because Kongo actually IS a kickboxer. However, even with Mir's mediocre wrestling, he should easily be able to get Cheick Kongo on the mat. When the fight hits the floor, Kongo's like a turtle, in that he has no chance at getting off his back. Mir can throw some strikes and lock in one of those “limb breaking” submissions he's been running his mouth about since his sloppy armbar on Tim Sylvia. Kongo's only chance is if Mir wants to “showcase his striking”, at which point, he can beat the heck out of Mir until he robs him of consciousness, but I don't see it. Winner via 1st round Submission: Frank Mir.

Joshua: In a bout promised by Dana “not to go the distance”, I think we may see just that. Both fighters have the ability and desire to finish the fight, albeit in different areas of the game, but I actually see them battling to a decision. I think the fight will be a mix of standing and ground, but I think Mir’s new striking skills and Kongo’s 8 week training camp of learning to avoid subs will lead to a back and forth battle with Mir coming out on top. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Frank Mir.

Brad: This fight is interesting, because I can easily see either guy taking it. Of course that makes it a disaster to pick, but it can’t be any worse than I’ve done lately. What clinched this decision to me was watching the countdown show and seeing just how confident Frank Mir is with his current wrestling abilities to take Kongo down. I disagree with him, because Mir has never shown even a glimpse of what could be considered good wrestling, and despite the flak he takes, Kongo can sprawl. I see Mir tiring out his new bulky body by working in the clinch for takedowns, and Kongo dismantling him on the feet. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Cheick Kongo.

Jack: A fight that, to be frank, I am rather disinterested in, as neither fighter should really be relevant at the top of the heavyweight division and neither fighter has a skill-set that really makes me want to sit-up and take notice. Kongo has decent striking and strangely underrated wrestling (given that only top wrestlers really rag-doll him), while Mir has good jitz and overrated striking. Mir seems to be in shape and Kongo doesn't have crazy knockout power, so I think Frank survives the striking and gets it to the mat for a sub in the second. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Frank Mir.

Miles: Another really tough fight to feel comfortable picking, as both guys have one obvious path to victory each. What it comes down to, then, is evaluating just how successfully these two fighters have managed to follow those paths to victory in the past. In other words, is Cheick Kongo as effective as a knockout artist as Frank Mir is as a submission artist? In all honesty, I have to answer “no.” Kongo’s striking has not looked particularly good against guys who have had good enough striking to comfortably engage him and take him to the ground, the Velasquez, Herring, and Marrero fights all tell me that, nor is he a one-strike knockout artist. While Mir is not the best striker in the world, I do think that, like those previously mentioned fighters, he will be able to successfully use his striking as a means of closing the distance, where shooting-in will become easier. Kongo’s submission defense has been baffling in the past, and that simply cannot be afforded against a risk-taker like Mir, who will jump at any opening that presents itself. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Frank Mir.


The Final Forecast: Mir returns to the winner’s circle by taking the easiest road through Kongo.


Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce

Matt: I thought Diego Sanchez was the biggest long-shot on the card, but I'm pretty sure the biggest long-shot is that this will be an exciting fight. Two human blankets hit the cage in this one. I lean towards Fitch because of his experience with MMA wrestling and what I perceive to be a slight edge in actual striking, though it may not be enough to be a large difference. I also think that Fitch's jiu-jitsu skills give him the advantage he'll need to pull this one out. I think he takes Piece out of his comfort zone and eventually submits him. God help us all if this turns into a Sherk/Edgar boxing match. Winner via 3rd round Submission: Jon Fitch.

Joshua: This fight is not a very exciting proposition, but I think Fitch has the edge in all the areas that matter and will be able to outpoint Pierce in the stand-up and wrestling control game long enough to earn himself another decision victory. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jon Fitch.

Brad: If ever there was a justifiable time to put a Jon Fitch fight on an undercard, this is it. Mike Pierce is a black-belt in human blanketing. Unfortunately for him, Jon Fitch is a red-belt in the same art. Fitch gets top position, and holds it, holds it, holds it… HOLDS IT!!!! But in all honesty, if we’re lucky we’ll see Jon Fitch circa 2006/07, who actually looked to finish fights… but I wouldn’t bet on it. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jon Fitch.

Jack: Both fighters have pretty much the same game-plan here, take the other man down and lie on him... Jon Fitch, however, wants to do this and then pull a funny face as he's getting his hand raised, which may be the only distinguishing feature between these two fighters. Fitch has more experience and takes a UD by way of blanketing and depressingly average striking. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jon Fitch.

Miles: You’ve gotta love the irony of this match-up. Think about it, we have Mike Pierce who wins one of the most boring decisions in UFC history getting on the main card against a WW contender, when the guy he beat, Brock Larson won two exciting fights via submission and he never saw the spotlight. Anyway, enough of my griping, I think Jon Fitch will be able to successfully implement Pierce’s own game-plan against him. That said, Fitch is due for a finish and I believe he will be able to stop a gassed Pierce later in the fight. Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Jon Fitch.


The Final Forecast: Fitch manages to “out-Pierce” Mike.


Kenny "KenFlo" Florian vs. Clay "The Carpenter" Guida

Matt: This is an interesting match-up. Florian has shown that his kryptonite is a strong wrestler who can muscle him to the ground and control him (and B.J. Penn). Clay Guida has shown that he is way too willing to exchange with strikers who are far superior than him. I initially struggled with the question of Guida getting Florian to the ground, but then I realized that after his last fight, Guida has to get Florian to the ground and look like he's doing more damage than Florian, who when put on his back throws elbows like Bill Laimbeer. I get the feeling that if nothing else, Florian will give the appearance of being more active and will curry just enough favour with the judges to eek out a decision. Winner via Split Decision: Kenny Florian.

Joshua: Two of the best LW’s the UFC has to offer will be looking to rebound from recent losses in this bout. Guida is one tough SOB and has shown on multiple occasions that he can withstand immense amounts of punishment and still put up a fight. Florian is a “finisher” who can’t seem to capitalize on his title opportunities. I think we will see a lot of clinch-work in this fight with brief stand-up flurries which Kenny will get the best of. By the third round I see Kenny stunning Guida, following him to the ground, and submitting him because well, he finishes fights. Winner via 3rd round Submission: Kenny Florian.

Brad: Alright, now that we’ve got the whole “I want B.J.’s belt” debacle out of the way (seriously, did anyone really believe Florian had a shot in that fight?) we get to witness the slow demise of Kenny Florian. I say this because Kenny isn’t a very good wrestler, and LW is the most wrestling heavy division in the UFC. Guida isn’t even one of the best wrestlers in the division, but I still think he can get top position and grind out a decision in this one, since Clay has survived guys with better sub games than Kenny. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Clay Guida.

Jack: Kenny Florian wanted B.J.'s belt, Kenny didn't get B.J.'s belt, so now Kenny gets to try and fend off Clay Guida for three rounds. This fight actually has the potential to be very exciting or rather boring. I'm going with the former, I think Clay will score takedowns and Florian will do a good job scrambling from the bottom, Guida spends enough time in top position here to be on the good side of a close, exciting decision for a change. Winner via Split Decision: Clay Guida.

Miles: Another tough fight to call. Striking and submissions to Kenny, while wrestling and control go to Clay. Sounds almost exactly like Guida/Sanchez all over again, and will ultimately be determined by what the judges privilege. Will they look at Guida’s bloody “Hell”bow smashed face and give the rounds to Florian? Or will they look at Kenny’s inability to stop the takedown and get back to his feet? Hard to say. Guida’s really tough to finish and I think that even if Kenny uses his knees instead of sprawling, he doesn’t have the stopping power to end Guida’s night/prevent the takedown. Winner via Split Decision: Clay Guida.


The Final Forecast: No matter how loudly Keith Florian screams like a strangled cat, Clay edges Kenny on the scorecards.


Paul Buentello vs. Stefan Struve

Matt: Stefan Struve proved he had solid jiu-jitsu chops, locking on a triangle early in his last fight over Chase Gormley. His only loss in the octagon was to current phenom and division front-runner, Junior dos Santos. While Struve has shown that he is liable to be beaten up, I think he can get this to the ground and use his aforementioned ground game to sub “The Headhunter”. If Struve can use his distance to stay out of the occasionally wild Buentello's range, he should be able to take this one by wearing Buentello down and eventually making him submit. Winner via 3rd round Submission: Stefan Struve.

Joshua: Struve has shown he has some real BJJ skills in his last couple of fights, but he has also proven to be all too willing to take a beating looking for his chance to lock in submissions. Buentello is a seasoned veteran and has seen just about everything imaginable in his long career, so I don’t think Struve will catch him off guard. I think Paul will be able to keep this fight on the feet long enough to land some solid strikes which will put Stefan down for the count and make his octagon return a successful one.  Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Paul Buentello.

Brad: I like grapplers at HW. It’s always cool to see a big guy going for a submission rather than the KO. That said, Stefan Struve really needs to start working on his stand-up. For a guy who is almost as tall as Semmy Schilt, and from the same country, it’s amazing his Dutch citizenship hasn’t been revoked yet for his inability to grasp even basic striking concepts. Struve should control the distance in all of his fights, but once again, he won’t, and a heavy-handed striker will put him down. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Paul Buentello.

Jack: Don't fear Paul Buentello.... okay now that we've established that little catchphrase still hasn't caught on, and never will, we can focus on “The Headhunter” returning to the octagon. Struve has an obvious advantage on the ground, but I'm not sure if he has the means to get it there. Buentello will want to play this one safe and work off of that jab to expose Struve's sub-par striking game. While the recent "ban" from AKA makes me nervous, I think that if Buentello shows up in decent shape he controls this fight on the feet and takes the win. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Paul Buentello.

Miles: Struve’s ground game is impressive, but I don’t think he’ll get to use it much in this fight. Buentello is like a heavyweight version of Chuck Liddell, in that he’ll sprawl and brawl until he wins a decision or knocks you out. Despite the fact that Struve’s getting more of a grip on how his gangly frame works, his striking technique is worrisome. In his last bout against Gormley, he threw too many “slappy” kicks and he dropped his hands way more than he should while throwing them. That’s a recipe for disaster when facing a power puncher like Buentello who is also decent at counter-punching. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Paul Buentello.


The Final Forecast: “The Headhunter” adds a skull to his dust-caked collection.



Preliminary Card


Alan "The Talent" Belcher vs. Wilson Gouveia

Matt: Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Alan Belcher.

Joshua: Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Alan Belcher.

Brad: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Wilson Gouveia.

Jack: Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Wilson Gouveia.

Miles: Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Alan Belcher.


The Final Forecast: Belcher’s movement, cardio, and toughness carry him to a late stoppage over Gouveia.



"Handsome" Matt Wiman vs. Shane Nelson

Matt: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Matt Wiman.

Joshua: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Matt Wiman.

Brad: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Matt Wiman.

Jack: Winner via 2nd Round Submission: Matt Wiman.

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Matt Wiman.


The Final Forecast: Matt Wiman purges another undeserving TUF cast member from the UFC roster.


Johny Hendricks vs. Ricardo Funch

Matt: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Johny Hendricks.

Joshua: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Johny Hendricks.

Brad: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Johny Hendricks.

Jack: Winner via 2nd Round (T)KO: Johny Hendricks.

Miles: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Johny Hendricks.


The Final Forecast: I’ve got a hunch, Hendricks will pick-up more steam, with an early stoppage of Funch.


Rousimar "Toquinho" Palhares vs. Lucio "Spartan" Linhares

Matt: Winner via 3rd round Submission: Rousimar Palhares.

Joshua: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Lucio Linhares.

Brad: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Rousimar Palhares.

Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Rousimar Palhares.

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Rousimar Palhares.


The Final Forecast: Pal triumphs over Lin in the battle of hares.


DaMarques Johnson vs. Edgar Garcia

Matt: Winner via 1st round T(K)O: Edgar Garcia.

Joshua: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Edgar Garcia.

Brad: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Edgar Garcia.

Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Edgar Garcia.

Miles: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Edgar Garcia.


The Final Forecast: Garcia silences Johnson with an emphatic knockout in the first.


Kevin "The Fire" Burns vs. T.J. Grant

Matt: Winner via Split Decision: T.J. Grant.

Joshua: Winner via Split Decision: Kevin Burns.

Brad: Winner via 3rd round Submission: T.J. Grant.

Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: T.J. Grant.

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Kevin Burns.


The Final Forecast: Grant extinguishes the fire of Burns’.