Home Categories Miscellaneous The FightLockdown Forecast - UFC 110: Nogueira vs. Velasquez
The FightLockdown Forecast - UFC 110: Nogueira vs. Velasquez
Written by Miles Hackett   
Friday, 19 February 2010 11:25
Finally, the UFC has arrived in Australia and not without a bit of gusto. UFC 110 boasts the most exciting main event since UFC 104: Machida vs. Rua, with rising HW sensation, Cain Velasquez, taking a giant leap in competition, by facing-off with the legendary Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira. Also on the card is an exciting tilt between everyone's favorite bad guy, Michael "The Count" Bisping, and everyone's favorite, Wanderlei "the Axe Murderer" Silva.

With a number of obviously interesting match-ups present on the main and preliminary cards, it's time for the FLD writing staff to bring you another epic forecast. On the panel today are Jamie Hughes, Jack Barrington, Matt Bremner, Joshua Taylor, and Miles Hackett. Check out our thoughts on this riveting string of fights, after the jump!



Antonio Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira vs. Cain Velasquez

Miles Hackett: Fantastic match-up and certainly worthy of main event status. This will be Velasquez’s first time facing someone who knows how to shrimp and actually work submissions from their back. Taking Nogueira to the ground may not be the wisest of moves, so I could see Cain using his wrestling to keep the fight standing. That said, his striking is still a work in progress and he gets tagged often enough, which makes me think that if the fight stays on the feet, Cain will start off strong, but as Nogueira eases himself into the fight, he’ll start landing more on the feet. Cain will look to get the fight to the ground, Nogueira will oblige, stifling Cain’s passing while simultaneously threatening with submissions which will appeal to the judges (oddly enough). Winner via Unanimous Decision: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.

Jamie Hughes: This fight will be ultimately decided by two things: if Velasquez has the stand-up to hang in there with Nogueira and also if Velasquez can use his great wrestling pedigree to control Nogueira. The gameplan for Nogueira will be to keep the fight standing and try to test Velasquez’s chin early, while looking to stuff the takedown attempts and get Velasquez to stand with him. If the fight does hit the ground Velasquez will have to stay away from Nogueira’s guard. Cain should look to use his high pace and wrestling ability to wear down Nogueira and use his ground-and-pound to stifle the likely submission attempts that will come from Nogueira. It’s my belief that this will be too great of a step up for Velasquez, and Nogueira will show that he still has the great warrior heart and skills to be a force in the heavyweight division. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.

Jack Barrington: While Nogueira is a proven, yet somewhat slowing legend, Cain has shown himself to be an improving, if slightly unproven up-and-comer. This fight should be close as both men are evenly matched, however, I don’t see it looking like that. I think Nog tags Cain early in the second after an uneventful first, bringing on a rushed takedown where the old master shows his class, either catching a triangle or sweeping Velasquez and finishing the fight from there. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.

Matt Bremner: In what I am calling the “Premiere Pick 'Em Fight” of 2010, Nogueira meets Velasquez. This fight is one of the toughest fights to pick that I've come across since I started picking for FLD. Velasquez has cardio, wrestling, and insane strength. Big Nog has a slick ground game, better hands, and years of experience. I can see Velasquez essentially controlling Nog on the ground and beating him up and I can see Velasquez hanging an arm or leaving his head in the wrong spot and doing the three-tap shuffle. I don't see Velasquez finishing Nog, which means he has to go fifteen minutes without making one mistake. Randy Couture a much more seasoned MMA wrestler couldn't go five minutes without making a mistake. Velasquez may be younger and stronger, but I doubt he's smarter or craftier than Couture, who built his name on those tenets. Velasquez makes a mistake and Nog capitalizes, but takes a relative beating in the process. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.

Joshua Taylor: Each fighter has a clear path to victory so I really think it will depend on who controls the fight. I believe Nog will have the stand-up advantage technically and will force Cain to take the fight to the ground which will be dangerous. While Velasquez has shown great control while inflicting damage, he only has to make one mistake and Nog can lock in a fight ending submission. I actually don’t predict a finish from either fighter though. I think Nog will control the stand-up and be active enough looking for submissions on the ground to win a decision. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.


The Final Forecast: The Velasquez hype train is momentarily halted by a craftier, more experienced warrior in Nogueira.



Wanderlei "The Axe Murderer" Silva vs. Michael "The Count" Bisping

Miles: Again, we are going to watch Bisping take on another heavy-handed slugger. Bisping’s biggest advantage in this fight is Wanderlei’s inability to adapt his style to the octagon. Silva was perfectly suited to the ring where he could trap and overwhelm his opponents with an inescapable onslaught of combinations and knees. Inside the vast octagon, however, he’s a slow starter, as he struggles to get his opponent’s timing down and establish his range until half-way through the second round – which makes him frantic to score a finish. I think Bisping will recognize that movement, a good jab, and the occasional takedown will go a long way in this fight, making this one unfold a lot like his meeting with Chris Leben, rather than his short night with Dan Henderson. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Michael Bisping.

Jamie: The likelihood is that the majority of this fight will take place on the feet, and it is a tale of two contrasting style of stand-up. Silva will employ his fan-friendly all-action style and Bisping will try to use his stick-and-move point scoring style. I think the difference in this fight will be Bisping’s ability to take this fight down to the mat, and one of Silva’s weaknesses has been that he get tired faster when put on his back. In short my heart says Silva via KO, but my head is saying Bisping to steal a unanimous decision. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Michael Bisping.

Jack: An important fight for both men really, Wanderlei is still trying to establish himself as a relevant fighter in the UFC following his recent decline, while Bisping is still looking for that big name on his record. Wanderlei will be Wanderlei, and will push forward looking to engage, while Bisping will look to stick-and-move while peppering his opponent with shots, in tune with his previous gameplan against Chris Leben. The octagon’s size and shape plays into Bisping’s hands here, and the once great Wanderlei Silva has become almost plodding and is lacking any remnants of the blistering hand speed he was renowned for. While Silva can finish the fight at any time, I don’t see it happening and as much as it pains me to pick against him, I think he drops a decision here to my fellow Brit. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Michael Bisping.

Matt: Michael Bisping seemed to be a reborn fighter after his block-rocking loss to Dan Henderson, he was a more focused, less cocky version of the fighter that we'd seen in the past. He showed composure against Denis Kang that he'd never really had a propensity towards in the past. Old habits die hard though, and the cocky world-beater Bisping has returned. Now, Wanderlei's recent losses have come from being outworked, or knocked unconscious. However, with Bisping's recently suspect chin, and the fact that he doesn't really have the power that is needed to put away Wanderlei, I'm leaning toward the ‘Axe Murderer’ to well, murder, Bisping with a big shot that puts him away. The big concern with Wanderlei seems to be him gassing, which he did at 195 and very well could at 185. Bisping could get wise and survive the early onslaught and jab or ground and pound his way to a win. I just see him getting cracked and getting put to sleep. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Wanderlei Silva.

Joshua: Another fight with both fighters having clear paths to victory and what it came down to for me was cardio. Wand obviously has KO power and Bisping has shown he can be KO’d, but “The Count” has also shown that he is able to stick and move to earn a decision. I think if he can survive round 1 with Wand, then he can use his speed to pepper an exhausted Silva and earn himself a decision victory and possibly a meeting with the Sexy One. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Michael Bisping.


The Final Forecast: Wanderlei Silva fans stand aghast as the “Axe Murderer” loses a points battle with “The Count”.


Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic vs. Anthony “The Hippo” Perosh

Miles: Looks like Cro Cop’s lucky day, seeing as Ben Rothwell had to pull-out citing illness. I think Perosh is going take a beating, Mirko fares well against relative nobodies. I feel better with this pick, because I had picked Rothwell to clinch and fence-grind a decision over Cro Cop with his size. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Mirko Cro Cop.

Jamie: I think I will keep this short and sweet. Even at this stage of his career, Cro Cop will have too much standing for Perosh and get the early stoppage victory; a likely stoppage with strikes. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Mirko Filipovic.

Jack: A fight that should be relatively simple for CroCop, yet also has potential for embarrassment were he to lose. As a CroCop fan this doesn't worry me too much, however, as even the tentative flat-footed CroCop of today should have way too much standing for Perosh to handle. I want to say he shows flashes of brilliance, dazzles Perosh with his footwork and outboxes him for half a round, before ending things emphatically with his trademark left head kick, but I'll try to remain realistic. Mirko stops him early in the second, after stalking a back peddling Perosh for a round and finally catching him with a straight left coming in, much like the one he dropped Wanderlei with in their second fight. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Mirko Filipovic.

Matt: Perosh has lost to every fighter he's ever faced that has been even mediocre, Cro Cop may not be the fighter he once was, but he will outclass “The Hippo”, ending it late in the 2nd. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Mirko Filipovic.

Joshua: In a last minute replacement, I think Mirko gets an easier, but obviously less impressive win here. Perosh should be willing to be pushed around the cage and slowly worn down by the strikes of Mirko. Hopefully, this will give Cro Cop the opportunity and desire to bring his kicks back into his fight game and maybe, just maybe we will be honored enough to see a UFC LHK victory. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Mirko Filipovic.


The Final Forecast: PRIDE fans breathe a sigh of relief as Anthony Perosh subs in for Ben Rothwell, gets cracked, and wakes up to another dimension.


George Sotiropoulos vs. Joe "Daddy" Stevenson

Miles: Too soon -- that’s how I feel about George Sotiropoulos facing someone on the level of Joe Stevenson after facing a laundry list of LW journeymen. I loved watching Sotiropoulos dummying those guys, but I think this is too great of a leap in competition from Jason Dent. I think Joe “Daddy” holds an edge in all aspects of this fight and I believe his wrestling will put him in top position every time. George may have a very fun ground game to watch, but I don’t see him catching Joe Daddy from his back. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Joe Stevenson.

Jamie: Both men have similar attributes in this fight, as both are BJJ black-belts and both are solid in the stand-up department. I believe the difference could lie with Stevenson’s wrestling, if he can use it to wear down and control Sotiropoulos he can win, but he will have to be very wary as Sotiropoulos has a good eye for submissions and could catch Stevenson late. That’s exactly what I think will happen. Winner via 3rd round Submission: George Sotiropoulos.

Jack: If Joe Daddy wants to wrestle, then he will take Sotiropoulos down. If Joe Daddy takes Sotiropoulos down, then George won’t offer much from his back. Therefore, I see Stevenson scoring takedowns and maintaining top position for the majority of this bout. George is schooled on the ground so he’ll most likely survive, however, the home crowd won’t save him from dropping a clear decision in this encounter. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Joe Stevenson.

Matt: Sotiropolous is coming off an armbar victory over Jason Dent, he’s a man known for his ground skills. However, before he became a wrestling machine, Joe Stevenson was known for his ground skills too. Stevenson has, of late, looked like more of a workman and it has served him well. The same gameplan you saw against Nate Diaz and Spencer Fisher will once again be in full effect. He's going to take George down, rough him up and repeat. Sotiropolous is slick off his back, but not so slick that I think he can catch Joe, who hasn't been subbed by anyone who hasn't dropped him with a punch since he was four fights into his career. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Joe Stevenson.

Joshua: A great fight with a streaking Sotiropoulos against the very well rounded Joe Daddy. G-Sot has looked great lately in finishing his last five opponents, but Stevenson has fought the very best in the UFC LW division and has beaten most. Lately he has returned to his wrestling roots and has taken a somewhat cautious approach in his fights by grinding out his opponents (except for Spencer Fisher). I think this cautious, yet punishing approach will be perfect for George and will lead to a decision win. Much like the Stevenson/Diaz fight I think Joe will add another win to his record. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Joe Stevenson.


The Final Forecast: Joe Stevenson’s overwhelming ability to take the fight to the ground and control Sotiropoulos will earn him a clear-cut decision.


Ryan "Darth" Bader vs. Keith "The Dean of Mean" Jardine

Miles: Another tough scrap to call, as Jardine’s about as consistent as a geriatric’s bowel movements and Bader is still a major work in progress. I think Bader’s biggest issue with his last fight was the octagon rust. How many times have we seen guys coming back from the shelf (especially following knee surgeries) with poor conditioning? It’s a common trend, and I think Bader will intend on wiping our memories of the Schafer fight. I think Jardine leaves himself way too open to being hit and even though Bader’s stand-up is still very basic (and wild), he has the power to separate “the Dean of Mean” from his senses. If Bader doesn’t like the stand-up, he can take Jardine down when he wants, and I don’t really think Jardine’s guard is to be feared. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Ryan Bader.

Jamie: A win for Bader will springboard him into contention at 205 and for Jardine this is a must win after two tough losses against Jackson and Silva. Jardine will need to be at his most unorthodox and battling best against Bader, who has the power on the feet to trouble Jardine, and most importantly, good wrestling which could cause further problems. I can see Bader making his breakthrough into the top 10 with a hard fought decision victory. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Ryan Bader.

Jack: While Ryan Bader is an above average fighter with the ability to become a very good one, Keith Jardine is most likely an average fighter who has reached his peak. Barring a flash KO, I don’t see Bader losing this fight. He may want to showcase his stand-up, given Jardine’s weak chin and appalling defense, and if he mixes in a takedown here and there, then Bader wins the battle of the bad nicknames with a dominant stoppage, taking another step-up the divisional rankings. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Ryan Bader.

Matt: I don't have many great things to say about Ryan Bader, a guy who lost a round striking to Eric Schafer (I don't care how the judges scored it). However, the one thing that Bader has done with the exception of the Schafer fight is that he hasn't tried to be something he's not. He's a wrestler, he wrestles, he grinds out decisions. Keith Jardine has slammed into the glass ceiling so hard that it knocked him into epic unconsciousness... or was that Wanderlei Silva... but I digress. Jardine has the striking skill and power to put Bader in the ground if he tries to be a fancy lady and throw hands. That said, after the slapfest that was his fight with “Ravishing Red”, I think he knows better. Expect Bader to take Jardine down and lay some mediocre ground and pound on him that gets him the decision. If Bader takes his foot off the gas at any point though, Jardine could highlight reel him and make up for his momentary vacation from the mortal coil at the hands of Wanderlei and Thiago. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Ryan Bader.

Joshua: While Bader is coming into this fight undefeated, I would be lying if I said I was at all impressed with his list of victims. While Jardine isn’t exactly an elite fighter anymore, he is a tough and well rounded grinder and I think his underrated TDD will allow him to control the majority of this fight and punish “Darth” in the stand-up en route to a decision victory. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Keith Jardine.


The Final Forecast: Ryan Bader wins by being a better wrestler and less chinny.


The Prelims

Stephan "The American Psycho" Bonnar vs. Krzysztof "The Polish Experiment" Soszynski

Miles: Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Krzysztof Soszynski.

Jamie: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Krzysztof Soszynski.

Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Krzysztof Soszynski.

Matt: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Krzysztof Soszynski.

Joshua: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Krzysztof Soszynski.


The Final Forecast: Soszynski hands Bonnar his walking papers, but the UFC loses them and keeps him on the roster, anyway.


Chris "Lights Out" Lytle vs. Brian Foster

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Chris Lytle.

Jamie: Winner via Split Decision: Chris Lytle.

Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Chris Lytle.

Matt: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Brian Foster.

Joshua: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Chris Lytle.


The Final Forecast: Chris Lytle toughs out a war of fisticuffs, and quite possibly the fight of the night.


C.B. "The Doberman" Dollaway vs. Goran "Aquaman" Reljic

Miles: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Goran Reljic.

Jamie: Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Goran Reljic.

Jack: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Goran Reljic.

Matt: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Goran Reljic.

Joshua: Winner via 1st round Submission: Goran Reljic.


The Final Forecast: "Aquaman" puts "the Doberman" down within 15.


James Te Huna vs. Igor Pokrajac

Miles: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: James Te Huna.

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: James Te Huna.

Jack: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Igor Pokrajac.

Matt: Winner via Unanimous Decision: James Te Huna.

Joshua: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Igor Pokrajac.


The Final Forecast: James shows Igor why he’s the “big Te Huna”.