Home Categories Miscellaneous The FightLockdown Forecast - UFC 111: St. Pierre vs. Hardy
The FightLockdown Forecast - UFC 111: St. Pierre vs. Hardy
Written by Miles Hackett   
Friday, 26 March 2010 21:29
Tomorrow night from Newark, New Jersey, the UFC brings us its most exciting card thus far in 2010; UFC 111: St. Pierre vs. Hardy. Subjecting you to their occasional flashes of genius tonight are Brad Taschuk, Jamie Hughes, David Anthony, Matt Bremner, and Miles Hackett. Get your forecast, after the jump!

Georges "Rush" St. Pierre vs. Dan "The Outlaw" Hardy

Brad Taschuk: No matter how hard the UFC tries to sell me on Dan Hardy having a shot (outside of landing the biggest punch of his career), I just can't see it. In my head, I've gone through every conceivable way this fight could go, and they all turn out with GSP getting his hand raised. So then the question becomes, "how?" I think GSP will use a fairly varied gameplan in this fight, but when he takes Hardy down for the first time and realizes how porous the Brit's defensive guard is, he'll make sure to find his way back to the ground in the following round, work some of his patented guard passing, and submit Hardy with relative ease. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Georges St. Pierre.

Jamie Hughes: So in the main event for the welterweight title, we have what in many people’s eyes is the most one-sided title fight in history since..... *cough* Serra/GSP *cough*. If you look at this fight rationally, GSP wins every time. He has the better wrestling , ground game and the more versatile striking due to his ability to switch to the takedown so quickly, but I do feel Hardy is the more aggressive and harder puncher in the fight. That said, if I look at this fight with my bias towards the first Brit in history getting a title shot (and the fact that I am a big Hardy fan), I have a gut feeling which is based-on nothing but my wish to see a British UFC champ. I’m calling the upset Hardy to win in spectacular and shocking fashion (I may be the only one with faith). Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Dan Hardy.

David Anthony: I am not excited at all for this main event. Sure, stranger things have happened, but I haven't seen anything in Hardy's arsenal that should be able to neutralize GSP anywhere. Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Georges St Pierre.

Matt Bremner: Yes, Matt Serra put GSP on dream street and took his belt, but here's the thing; GSP then kneed Serra into oblivion after running over Hughes and outwrestling Koscheck. GSP may sound repetitive, but so is the hype for this fight. Alves was bigger, stronger, and far more dangerous, and GSP beat him with one leg. Dan Hardy couldn't put it on Mike Swick, who Paulo Thiago dropped like Jesse James after getting caught with a white supremacist. I have no reason to think this fight won't look like the BJ/GSP fight. BJ has great boxing, BJ has power, BJ has superior takedown defense, and GSP walked through Penn. Yes, Hardy is bigger than Penn, but he's also less talented in almost every category. GSP sticks a jab in Hardy's face and if Hardy gains any kind of rhythm, he'll be on his ass. GSP runs the train on Hardy and ends the fight whenever he feels like it. Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Georges St. Pierre.

Miles Hackett: I like Dan Hardy, but I don’t like this match-up for him one bit. Personally, I don’t subscribe to the “lucky punch” theory, and I do believe that Hardy – a more notorious striker than Matt Serra – is more likely to land on GSP standing than the Long Island “Terra” was in his fabled first meeting with "Rush". All that said, the grappling edge is going to be the deciding factor in this fight, as GSP is not just the best wrestler in MMA, but probably the best guard passer as well. Look for St. Pierre to take Hardy down when he wants, inflict damage from inside the guard, pass at will, then sink in a fight ending submission mid-way through the fight. Note: the reason I think it will last so long is strictly because of Hardy's will to fight. Winner via 3rd round Submission: Georges St. Pierre.


The Final Forecast: Georges St. Pierre dominates Dan Hardy, raising the question; “who is next?”


Frank Mir vs. Shane Carwin

Brad: In a fight many see as a pick em, I just don't have the confidence in Shane Carwin to think he can best a quality fighter like Frank Mir. Unless Carwin has made significant technical leaps (especially defensively), he's going to struggle against a guy who is more technical on the feet, faster, and roughly the same size. That combination really doesn't bode well for Shane, but on his side are still his outstanding power and Mir's tendency to not enjoy getting punched in the face. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Frank Mir.

Jamie: This fight is really tough to call, if it stays on the feet I will lean towards Carwin because of the crazy amount of power he generates when he hits someone, although Mir’s striking and movement could cause him problems. The deciding factor will be who controls the fight if (or when) it goes to the ground. I can’t see Mir trying for the takedown or getting one if he tries, but Carwin has the ability to take down Mir, and he will he be confident enough in his ground skills to work there. Rampant speculation aside, this fight will be short, with Shane Carwin stopping Mir in emphatic fashion early on. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Shane Carwin.

David: Though I am looking forward to this fight, and really want Carwin to pull it off, I just don't see how. Outside of not liking to get hit, Mir has this fight sewn-up. Carwin is vastly unproven while the "new" Mir has looked like an ever-improving wrecking machine. Shane would be wise to use a Lesnar-esque gameplan in this fight with his wrestling because I think Frank eats him up on the feet and subs him if he gets sloppy on the ground. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Frank Mir.

Matt: I was on Shane Carwin's bandwagon for the theoretical Lesnar fight. I thought his wrestling background and power were enough to take the strap away from the phallus-chested Lesnar. However, as matchups go, I think Mir is about the worst possible match-up for Carwin. For all Carwin's power, he got cracked and cracked hard by Gonzaga, a guy who has never shown much with his hands. Mir dropped a guy who was hailed as one of the top strikers in the division and finished him quickly (Kongo). I just don't like Carwin's odds. I think he either gets dropped, or shoots a sloppy takedown, either way, with Mir's submission skills, I see Carwin tapping. God help us when we have to listen to the interviews for Lesnar/Mir III. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Frank Mir.

Miles: Love this fight, although I kind of feel bad for Carwin as he should have been fighting Brock for the belt that actually matters. Stylistically it’s a fight that could potentially go either way, but I think Mir’s more well-rounded skills and patience spawned from experience will carry him through the first round and into the second, where he stuns Carwin, gains a dominant position, and sinks in a fight ending submission. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Frank Mir.


The Final Forecast: Frank Mir earns his rubber match with Brock Lesnar, much to the delight of Dana White.


Ben "Killa Bee" Saunders vs. Jon Fitch

Brad: My two original breakdowns of what I will refer to as the Spice Girls fight (2 Become 1... anybody? Anybody?) talked about how I loved the Ellenberger/Saunders fight, and what a great - albeit pointless - fight Fitch/Alves was. However, this new Fitch/Saunders match-up does not create any of those feelings. I'm not excited for it in the least, and I'm quite miffed that the UFC decided to pull Ellenberger (who I consider to be one of the fastest rising stars at WW) off the card entirely. Fitch is smart enough to avoid Saunders knees, and beyond that, Ben really doesn't have a whole lot in this fight. There will be takedowns and stand-ups, more takedowns and stand-ups, and that's about all she wrote for 15 minutes. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jon Fitch.

Jamie: I see this fight unfolding like this: Fitch strikes cautiously, repeatedly gets the takedown, and controls Saunders. Expect him to rinse and repeat with this formula, leading to another decision win. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jon Fitch.

David: I think most of the MMA world sees Saunders as in over his head in this fight, and I have to agree. I think Fitch takes the fight to the ground at will and punishes Saunders (mostly with boredom) to a unanimous decision. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jon Fitch (he no die!)

Matt: In a head scratcher, Jake Ellenberger is taken off the card in favour of Ben Saunders fighting Jon Fitch. My concern about Ellenberger was that he'd get wild and gas. This is not a concern with Fitch, he probably won't try to strike, he'll likely just straight up wrestle. Expect Fitch to take the fight to the ground, paw at Saunders and eventually get an excruciating boring win. Fitch needs to be careful, the last time he tried to strike with someone, he got beaten up badly, Saunders would beat him up worse. However, Fitch is pretty good at surviving and winning decision, so that's what's on the menu for this one. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jon Fitch.

Miles: Not much to say about this one that hasn’t been said, really. Jon Fitch used to be more than a wrestler, he used to be tenacious and scrappy. I can’t say the same for him post-GSP, but I do think his recent Mike Pierce-like style is effective against 90% of the division. Saunders’ knees definitely need to be respected, but I think Fitch’s toughness and decisive wrestling advantage make for a pay-per view snore. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jon Fitch.


The Final Forecast: Jon Fitch earns another unanimous decision. Big surprise, huh?


"Jersey" Jim Miller vs. Mark Bocek

Brad: Another fight I adore. Jim Miller has been steadily improving his game during his UFC tenure, while Bocek seems to have taken a quantum leap since his loss to Mac Danzig and subsequent move to ATT. Bocek is the better pure grappler of the two, but I hope that doesn't dissaude Miller from using his wrestling and grappling game in this fight, since it far exceeds his striking (which he seems to have fallen in love with of late). I think Miller will rely on his striking a little too much, allowing Bocek to take the fight where he wants it and impose his superior grappling. Winner via Split Decision: Mark Bocek.

Jamie: My biggest hope for this fight is to see it hit the mat, as both men’s brand of aggressive, attacking Jiu-jitsu could make for a spectacular result. That said, I think Miller will try to rely on his stand-up edge, although Bocek is not completely useless upright. I think Miller's more dynamic approach to fighting and his well-rounded skills will help him en route to a career boosting unanimous decision. Should be fun! Winner via Unanimous Decision: Mark Bocek.

David: This is really hard for me to choose because both of these guys are gamers. They are actually both pretty awesome. Given that both of them are strong grapplers, this could turn into an amateur kickboxing match. Although I don't feel comfortable saying either fighter has an advantage if the fight goes that route, I have to go with Jim Miller. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jim Miller.

Matt: Mark Bocek looks improved every time he steps into the cage. At UFC 79, I thought he was destined to a curtain jerker on cards, but he has really proved that he belongs in the UFC since making the jump to ATT. However, he's meeting up with a dual threat in Jim Miller, he can wrestle and he can (somewhat surprisingly) strike pretty well, as he showed against “Bang” Ludwig. Bocek is at his best on top, but I don't see him having the chops to get Miller to the mat, and don't see him subbing Miller from the bottom. This will be very workmanlike, and probably not overly exciting, but Miller gets his hand raised after he gets three 30-27 cards. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jim Miller.

Miles: Nice match-making here, if both of these guys remember what got them to the dance in the first place (their grappling). I personally think this stays on the feet though and we see Mr. Monkey-Arms outstriking the Canadian Ginger because of his ability to keep the fight standing. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jim Miller.


The Final Forecast: “Jersey” Jim pops the jab and over-hand right combo in Bocek’s face for 15 minutes.


Kurt "Batman" Pellegrino vs. Fabricio Camoes

Brad: In this last minute promotion to the main card, Kurt Pellegrino takes on Fabricio Camoes, who is probably coming off the most impressive draw debut in UFC history. Very few people expected Camoes to give Caol Uno many problems at all, but he did exactly that, and were it not for an illegal strike, he would have gained himself a Split Decision. However in this fight, Camoes' problem will be that Pellegrino is bigger than Uno, a better wrestler than Uno, and not as willing to go to his back as Uno. If Pellegrino does his normal thing and gives us a preview of what to expect from Jon Fitch later on in the evening, he'll take a UD, but if he goes the way of the Lightweight division, and tries to strike, this one gets interesting. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Kurt Pellegrino.

Jamie: This fight is a big one for both men as a win will boost them to a new level in the division. Pellegrino is a veteran in the UFC and will be looking to put together a few wins and Camoes is coming-off a draw with Caol Uno. I can see Pellegrino outworking Camoes on the ground on the way to a decision victory. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Kurt Pellegrino.

David: I am not a Pellegrino fan, but I think his method is effective in this match-up. He will lay on Fabricio, while unsuccessfully going for submussions on his way to a decision win. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Kurt Pellegrino.

Matt: In another head scratcher of a promotion to the main card, Kurt Pellegrino and Fabricio Camoes throw down for your viewing... chagrin. This fight is going to look like every fight does that “Batman”, horrendous nickname by the way, Batman has many tools in his arsenal, and Pellegrino doesn't have a belt, but my nerd side digress... This fight will look like every fight Pellegrino has where the other guy isn't a better wrestler. He'll take Camoes down, not really advance position and repeat this ad nauseum until he gets the judges nod. Though if Pellegrino tries to get fancy, Camoes could end whatever momentum Pellegrino has, but it's unlikely. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Kurt Pellegrino.

Miles: Anyone else surprised the Diaz/Markham fight wasn’t promoted to the main card instead? This has decision all over it as Camoes is tough to stop and Pellegrino is a work horse that struggles to finish the job. Look for constant takedowns, guard passing, and moderate ground and pound from Pellegrino who will add Camoes to his resume. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Kurt Pellegrino.


The Final Forecast: “Batman” frustrates Camoes and the audience for 3 full rounds.


Preliminary Card

Nate Diaz vs. Rory Markham

Brad: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Nate Diaz.

Jamie: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Nate Diaz.

David: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Nate Diaz.

Matt: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Nate Diaz.

Miles: Winner via 1st round Submission: Nate Diaz.


The Final Forecast: Diaz successfully debuts at welterweight by subbing a chinny brawler.



Ricardo "Cachorrão" Almeida vs. Matt "the Immortal" Brown

Brad: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Ricardo Almeida.

Jamie: Winner via Split Decision: Matt Brown.

David: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Matt Brown.

Matt: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Matt Brown.

Miles: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Matt Brown.


The Final Forecast: Matt Brown rudely welcomes Ricardo Almeida to the 170lb division.


Rodney "Sho Nuff the Master" Wallace vs. Jared Hamman

Brad: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Jared Hamman.

Jamie: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Jared Hamman.

David: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Jared Hamman.

Matt: Winner via 3rd round Submission: Rodney Wallace.

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Rodney Wallace.


The Final Forecast: Jared Hamman makes up for his previous defeat by adding one to the record of Wallace.


Rousimar "Toquinho" Palhares vs. Tomasz "the Gorilla" Drwal

Brad: Winner via 1st round Submission: Rousimar Palhares.

Jamie: Winner via 1st round Submission: Rousimar Palhares.

David: Winner via 1st round Submission Rousimar Palhares.

Matt: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Tomasz Drwal.

Miles: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Rousimar Palhares.


The Final Forecast: Palhares cements himself as one of the most dangerous grapplers at MW by making the “Gorilla” tap.


Matthew Riddle vs. Greg Soto

Brad: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Matthew Riddle.

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Greg Soto.

David: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Greg Soto.

Matt: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Matt Riddle.

Miles: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Matt Riddle.


The Final Forecast: Riddle dumbfounds Soto with his improvements as an all-round mixed martial artist.