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The FightLockdown Forecast - UFC 114: Evans vs. Jackson
Written by Miles Hackett   
Friday, 28 May 2010 16:02
Tomorrow night from the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada, UFC 114 finally arrives, bringing with it a historic moment in the sport of MMA. For the first time ever, two African-American superstars will compete in the main event for the #1 contender spot. On the panel, giving you the low-down on a likely entertaining night of fights, are Brad Taschuk, Matt Bremner, Jack Barrington, David Anthony, and Miles Hackett. Check out their insightful takes, after the jump!



Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs. “Sugar” Rashad Evans

Brad Taschuk: This fight has had so much hype (and terrible trash talk) around it, that it almost lost all meaning for me. However, this is still the 3rd and 4th ranked Light Heavyweights facing off, and that's a pretty rare occurrence outside of a title fight. I see this taking place on the feet, where it seems rather straight forward. Rashad has a speed advantage, but technically, defensively and power-wise, the scales tip towards Bosco Albert, and rather significantly. Rampage connects earlier in the fight than Thiago Silva did, and manages to finish the job. Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Quinton Jackson.

Matt Bremner: After trash-talk that would make gay pornstars blush and Jesse Jackson march, these two finally step into the Octagon. I've been shouting from bell towers and other large structures that I don't think Rashad is very good for some time now. Yes, he has done well landing one big shot, but even when confronted with the accusation he hasn't done anything, he results to MMA-Math. Rashad lost two rounds to Forrest, and has gassed himself shooting for bad takedowns many-a-time. Jackson is a better boxer, a better wrestler and a solid counterpuncher. Rashad has speed and explosive power, but he's extremely unlikely to knock out Rampage and less likely to take him down. In my (obviously humble) opinion, Rashad's only chance to win this fight comes from chopping Rampage down with leg kicks, and I don't think he'll do it. He wants to knock Rampage out too badly, and he'll go out on his word as a result. Rampage will put Rashad away with a mean right after Rashad fails some sloppy takedowns. Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Quinton “B.A. Baracus” Jackson.

Jack Barrington: The more trash-talk we have heard from this pair, the more my disinterest in the eventual fight has spiralled to the extent that I now find myself in the odd position of not caring about a fight between two top five 205lbers. If both men choose to stand and trade in this fight, then it is clear from their past exploits that they both have the ability to end the fight at any moment. Rampage has exhibited an obvious weakness to leg kicks in the past, and it will be interesting to see if Rashad attempts to exploit that. While I don't see either fighter as the overwhelming favourite (due somewhat to Jackson's long lay-off), Rampage still has the better boxing, the better chin, and the bigger power. Rashad has a slightly more diverse striking game and probably holds the advantage in the wrestling department, but his tendency to tire when using his grappling does not inspire confidence in his ability to outwrestle Jackson for three rounds. Rashad will tire near the end of the second, leading a (hopefully) in shape Rampage to turn it up in the third, and landing "that left hook" to finish things. Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Quinton Jackson.

David Anthony: I think it's pretty widely known that a prepared Quinton Jackson is better than Rashad everywhere. I think the only realistic question people could have is whether or not being a "movie star" has softened up Quinton's training regimen leading up to the fight. I lean toward "no" since he seems to have a genuine disdain for Evans. After a pretty sad showing (but a win, nonetheless) against Thiago Silva, I am even more confident that Jackson will earn the KO here. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Quinton Jackson.

Miles Hackett: Unlike my fellow writers at FLD, I’m pretty excited for this fight, as we’ll find out who the #1 contender is going to be. Aside from a few flashes of greatness, I have never been incredibly impressed with Rashad Evans. He has obvious power, good – not great – wrestling, on-top of a questionable chin and cardio. Rampage’s wrestling is being underestimated by many entering this fight, as I believe he will be able to stop most of Rashad’s takedown attempts. Once Rashad realizes he’s not getting the fight to the ground as easily as he had hoped, he will be forced to stand, which is a recipe for disaster against Rampage. Rashad should use straight punching to counter Rampage’s hooking style, but he won’t, as he favors loopy punches himself. Look for Rampage to catch him in an exchange, finishing him with excessive strikes on the ground. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Quinton Jackson.


The Final Forecast: Rampage erases any doubt that he has lost his fighting spirit by stopping Rashad in vicious fashion.



Michael “The Count” Bisping vs. Dan Miller

Brad: Once upon a time, this event had an amazing co-main event, and now it features two fighters holding a combined 1-4 record in their last five. Miller's striking looked atrocious in his last fight, and Bisping has serviceable enough takedown defense to ensure the fight takes place primarily on the feet. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Michael Bisping.

Matt: Dan Miller was never a PRIDE Middleweight champion, so I have to think that Bisping is safe in this competition. All kidding aside, Miller is a quality middleweight, but he just doesn't have that one big tool that all the best have. Oddly enough, he's going up against a guy who has exactly the same M.O. Bisping and Miller both lack power, both have above average but not extremely high quality wrestling, in which I'd give Miller the slight nod. However, Bisping carries an edge in technical striking, while neither holds an appreciable edge on the ground. Bisping showed against Kang that he has impressive composure on the ground and can nullify an attack, if he can do this against Miller, he should find the time and space to deliver enough damage to keep each round. Winner via Split Decision: Michael Bisping.

Jack: This should be a good comeback fight for Bisping. With Miller’s poor striking and mediocre takedown defense, I am struggling to see a route to victory for him in this one. Bisping has decent striking, decent wrestling, and an active top game; expect to see him showcase all three in this one, on his way to a wide unanimous decision. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Michael Bisping.

David: Simply put, Bisping is simply better at being mediocre than Miller. He should be able to stuff the takedowns and point his way to victory standing. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Michael Bisping.

Miles: I am actually anticipating Bisping to put on a clinic in this fight, as long as he has diligently worked on his guillotine defense. I think he’ll actually outwrestle Miller and will have a healthy advantage in the striking aspect of the contest if he can’t get the bout to the ground. I wouldn’t be surprised if Bisping managed to pull-off a finish, but I will take the safe route and suggest that he wins a decision. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Michael Bisping.


The Final Forecast: Miller loses his fight with Bisping and his UFC contract.


Todd Duffee vs. Mike Russow

Brad: Consider me fully not aboard the Todd Duffee bandwagon. The man has gotten more publicity for less than anyone since Frank Dux. If you don't believe me, just pick up a Fight Magazine, any one and he's essentially on every other page (Duffee, not Dux). Russow is a difficult match-up for anyone not in the elite of the UFC, and I think if he manages to put Duffee on his back, the young fighter will eventually tap. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Mike Russow.

Matt: Am I sold on Todd Duffee the way a lot of people are? No, I'm not at all. Do I think that he has potential? Lots of it. Do I think he'd get eaten alive by most top heavyweights? For sure. All that said, I think that Duffee has all the tools he needs to beat Mike Russow. Russow has good wrestling, but I think he's going to run into a wall in Duffee. As long as Duffee has worked on stuffing single leg takedowns, he should be able to do whatever he wants in this fight. Even better, he should put some leather on Russow after the first time he shoots for a single leg and discourage that technique. If that does indeed happen, Russow's in for a bad, bad night. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Todd Duffee.

Jack: A tough fight to breakdown, given the fact that Russow is always a game opponent, and we have almost no idea how good or bad Todd Duffee actually is. I like Brad’s analogy of the hype behind Duffee, not only because it allows me to imagine Russow as Bolo Yeung, but also because the publicity behind Duffee seems entirely absurd given that we have only seen seven seconds of fight time in the UFC from him, and that was against a decidedly mediocre opponent. Russow is a solid test for any fighter, and we may see him put the younger man on his back here, but Duffee’s athleticism, power and my (slightly wavering) faith in the UFC’s matchmaking makes me take him in this fight. It won’t be spectacular, but I think Duffee takes home a stoppage win with both men tiring late on. Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Todd Duffee.

David: I don't think there is a safe way to pick this fight. Quick KOs show me nothing (referring to Duffee's most recent and only fight in the UFC here). And Todd has an amazing amount of pressure by way of hype leading into this fight. I think he buckles and loses to Russow. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Mike Russow.

Miles: I am inclined to pick Russow in this bout, simply because I know a lot more about him  in terms of his skillset and what sort of obstacles he has overcome with his career. Todd Duffee, on the other hand, is probably the most overhyped and unproven fighter in MMA history, based on a jab-knockout. He is a powerful young guy with a lot of potential, just from a physical stand-point, and I think that in itself makes him a force in the UFC HW division which is now ruled by giants with less than stellar technique. I think Duffee will rise to the occasion, but Russow will force answers to certain questions surrounding the young prospect. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Todd Duffee.


The Final Forecast: Todd Duffee makes it clear that he is more than just hype and promotion.


Antônio Rogério “Minotouro” Nogueira vs. Jason “The Hitman” Brilz

Brad: Such a shame the Rogerio went from a fight that would put him right in line for a title shot, to one which does nothing. Brilz is no pushover, but Nogueira is the better fighter in every area, and that should become quickly evident. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.

Matt: I don't see a way Brilz wins this fight, I just don't. In tight, he'll get abused by knees and combinations while if he tries to take down Minotouro, he'll get subbed by the division's best fighter off his back. I mostly expect Minotouro to hit Brilz with a lot of powerful shots before putting him away mid-way through the fight. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.

Jack: Does this fight need a breakdown? People were talking about Rogério being better than Forrest everywhere, let alone Brilz. Brilz is tough, but Rogério is a world class light-heavyweight and will show it here. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Antônio Rogério Nogueira.

David: I hope lil' Nog isn't taking this fight as lightly as I am for him. Because that usually spells doom for the favorite. But other than that element, I think Rogerio has this fight in the bag. Winner via 1st Round (T)KO: Antônio Rogério Nogueira.

Miles: Brilz is in trouble no matter where this fight goes. I see Rogério stopping him with strikes, probably in the later rounds after Brilz has wasted all his energy pushing Lil’ Nog against the fence. Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Antonio Rogério Nogueira.


The Final Forecast: Lil’ Nog makes Jason Brilz regret coming in on short notice.


Diego “Nightmare” Sanchez vs. John “The Hitman” Hathaway

Brad: This fight is the one I have most anticipated leading up to this card, because Diego Sanchez is (or at least, was) a much better WW than LW, and John Hathaway is one of the guys who will be the future of the 170lb division. My issue with Diego since he moved to The Arena is that he's too willing to fight from his back, which is not his strong point. Sanchez is best in scrambles, and yet he refuses to create them anymore. On the other hand, Hathaway has an excellent top game, which can shut down whatever Diego throws at him. On the feet, Diego has also become more predictable and robotic, and Hathaway is the much smoother fighter. Unless Diego returns to his previous non-stop WW form, I see him being irrelevant in two divisions. Winner via Split Decision: John Hathaway.

Matt: I want to pick Hathaway, and I want Diego to lose, but I don't see the latter happening, which prevents me from jumping on the former. Diego's guard is extremely active, and his striking while more predictable than a Rock 'Em Sock 'Em Robot's, should be enough to get the job done against the 22-year old Hathaway, who has a bright, bright future. However, Hathaway doesn't have the counter-punching ability, or the top control to stifle Sanchez. Even though Diego's game will never really be enough to get him anywhere near a belt, he should be able to edge Hathaway here. That said, Diego had better hope that he doesn't run into Hathaway in about 3 years, when he will surely be a terror inside the cage. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Diego Sanchez.

Jack: Such an interesting fight and the most anticipated on the card from my point of view. If this was the Diego Sanchez that fought and – in my view – deserved the decision against Jon Fitch, then I would have no qualms picking him in this one. But since his move to 155lb Diego has been missing the skills that made him great; his aggression, scrambling ability, and relentless pace are all gone, replaced with mediocre methodical striking, a tendency to go to his back too easily, and a relatively unimpressive guard game. Hathaway is a very game opponent and if Diego fights like he did against Clay Guida then he will be put on his back in this one, and from there it is a coin toss against the comparatively inexperienced Brit. A big part of me wants to pick Hathaway, given Diego’s recent passive style, but with the move back up to 170lb, I think the former TUF winner will have some of his spark back, enough to out grit and out scramble Hathaway at least, handing the young prospect his first loss in a tantalizingly close encounter. Winner via Split Decision: Diego Sanchez.

David: Being Diego's first fight back at welterweight is going to play against him, I think. Even though he has fought there before, his body had only recently acclimated to a new weight-class in lightweight. I think he comes out either missing some of his original strength or explosiveness in this fight. And as a result, he loses to the already dangerous Hathaway. Winner via Unanimous Decision: John Hathaway.

Miles: Joe Silva should be given props for this dynamic welterweight match-up. John Hathaway has impressed me every time he has stepped in the cage and I think he is a future mainstay in the top 10, based-on his well-rounded skills at such a young age. As everyone on the FLD forum knows, I have written extensively about why I feel Diego Sanchez is a better fit at welter-weight. He has recognized that beefing up instead of dropping down is the right move for his career, and I think his experience against the best in the world will carry him to victory in a very competitive match-up. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Diego Sanchez.


The Final Forecast: “Nightmare” returns to his best weight-class and momentarily stalls the momentum of “The Hitman”.



Amir Sadollah vs. Dong Hyun “Stun Gun” Kim

Brad: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Dong Hyun Kim.

Matt: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Dong Hyun Kim.

Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Dong Hyun Kim.

David: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Amir Sadollah.

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Amir Sadollah.


The Final Forecast: Kim stuns Sadollah with a decision victory.


Efrain “Hecho en México” Escudero vs. Dan “The Upgrade” Lauzon

Brad: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Efrain Escudero.

Matt: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Efrain Escudero.

Jack: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Efrain Escudero.

David: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Efrain Escudero.

Miles: Winner via 1st round Submission: Efrain Escudero.


The Final Forecast: Escudero defeats Lauzon, even though Dan is likely already mentally defeated thanks to his family/camp drama.


Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard vs. Waylon Lowe

Brad: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Waylon Lowe.

Matt: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Melvin Guillard.

Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Melvin Guillard.

David: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Melvin Guillard.

Miles: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Melvin Guillard.


The Final Forecast: Guillard wakes Lowe from his dream of having a successful UFC debut.


Luis “Banha” Cane vs. Cyrille “The Snake” Diabaté

Brad: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Luis Cane.

Matt: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Luis Cane.

Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Luis Cane.

David: Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Luis Cane.

Miles: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Luis Cane.


The Final Forecast: “Banha” gets back on the winning track by stopping Diabate with strikes.


Aaron Riley vs. Joe Brammer

Brad: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Aaron Riley.

Matt: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Aaron Riley.

Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Aaron Riley.

David: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Aaron Riley.

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Aaron Riley.


The Final Forecast: Riley bounces back from the beating Ross Pearson gave him with a one-sided decision over Joe Brammer.


Jesse “Kid Hercules” Forbes vs. Ryan Jensen

Brad: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jesse Forbes.

Matt: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jesse Forbes.

Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jesse Forbes.

David: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jesse Forbes.

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jesse Forbes.


The Final Forecast: “Kid Hercules” grinds out a decision over the game Ryan Jensen.