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The FightLockdown Forecast - Ultimate Fight Night 20
Written by Miles Hackett   
Monday, 11 January 2010 13:41
Tonight on SpikeTV, the UFC is bringing us yet another Ultimate Fight Night with a number of intriguing match-ups. Providing the routine forecast for you are Jamie Hughes, Jack Barrington, and Miles Hackett. Read on to find out what's on their MMA doppler system.

Gray “The Bully” Maynard vs. Nate Diaz

Jamie Hughes: In the main event, top contender Gray Maynard looks to put himself next in line to face B.J. Penn by taking out submission specialist, Nate Diaz. This fight is big for both fighters as a win for Diaz throws him back in the mix at 155 and a win for Maynard clearly makes him the #1 contender. The game-plan for Maynard should be to use his ever-improving boxing to control the stand-up, working his way inside the rangy strikes of Diaz which can set up his main weapon -- his wrestling/takedowns. That said, Gray will need to be very careful of Diaz's very active and dangerous guard. For Diaz, standing, he needs to make his reach count and keep Maynard on the end of his jab, punishing him every time he steps in with jabs and inside leg kicks. Diaz likely knows that, at some point, this fight will hit the mat and he will need to tool in his guard game to unsettle Maynard, whether it’s in the form of sweeps or submissions. Easier said than done. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Gray Maynard.

Jack Barrington: A fight here between one of the top contenders at 155lbs in Maynard and a mid-level fighter who has shown a lot of promise in Diaz. Of the two, it would certainly be better for the title picture for Maynard to pick up the win, as he seems one of the only legit challengers to B.J. Penn’s belt right now, and in all honesty, I like Maynard in this fight. I’m still not completely sold on his submission defense, and feel that Diaz could pose the same problems for him on the mat that he did in their first meeting –where Diaz came out on top. Simply put, Maynard needs to use his wrestling defensively here and keep this fight on the feet. While Diaz has decent boxing for MMA, and a solid jaw, he gets hit a lot. I feel Gray has the superior stand-up and power, and if he keeps this on the feet like he should, he’ll take home a clear decision win. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Gray Maynard.

Miles Hackett: This is Gray Maynard’s fight to lose. Nate Diaz’s stand-up is sloppy, his wrestling his weak, and his only way to realistically beat Maynard is via submission. I don’t see that happening. I see the stronger wrestler (Maynard) being able to keep the fight standing where he can use his improved footwork and boxing to frustrate Diaz who will act like he wants to trade, drawing Gray into a clinch where he’ll attempt takedowns (and fail). Even if Maynard is drawn into a tactical war with Diaz he only has to worry about kimuras, triangle-chokes, and guillotines, as Diaz isn’t exactly known for his sweeps. While Diaz is a game fighter, his weaknesses are Maynard’s strengths and I foresee Gray sticking to a conservative game plan that will secure his contendership. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Gray Maynard.


The Final Forecast: “The Bully” takes Diaz’s lunch money on the way to his showdown with B.J. Penn later this year.


Efrain “Hecho en México” Escudero vs. Evan Dunham

Jamie: This fight is very closely matched, in my opinion. Escudero has shown good wrestling thus far and in his last outing against Cole Miller, he displayed some impressive power in his hands. Dunham has been equally, if not, more impressive in his two UFC bouts so far with his knock out of Per Eklund and a very hard-earned win over Marcus Aurelio. I think that in this fight, the fighter who controls the stand-up will have the edge, as both men are very capable on the ground and both have very good wrestling. From what I have seen of the two so far, I am giving Dunham the edge standing and I think he will win another split decision victory. Winner via Split Decision: Evan Dunham.

Jack: An interesting fight for another TUF winner in Efrain Escudero, as Dunham has proved in his previous outings that he has the skills to give Efrain some issues. It’s a fight that I feel can go either way in all honesty and am having a hard time choosing a winner. I can see it playing out standing and being a rather mediocre affair with it coming down to who plays the ring general and lands the cleaner shots. I’m taking Efrain here by decision, it’ll be close, but I think Dunham’s unbeaten record will fall in a spirited, yet uneventful performance. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Efrain Escudero.

Miles: Like Jack and Jamie, I could honestly see this bout swinging either way. Evan Dunham has had an impressive run in the UFC thus far and I would consider him to be overlooked by even the most hardcore of fans. Escudero’s a good wrestler who has started to favor his hands over his takedowns and submission game, which makes it hard to predict how he will approach this fight. I think Dunham will hold an edge in the striking, but Escudero’s wrestling instincts will kick in when he realizes he’s being outpointed. Expect a competitive affair that will see Dunham landing the more telling blows, while Escudero wins the takedowns and controls the fight once it hits the mat. Winner via Split Decision: Efrain Escudero.


The Final Forecast: Escudero emerges the victor against the under-rated Evan Dunham.


Aaron Simpson vs. “Filthy” Tom Lawlor

Jamie: Lawlor was impressive last time out, when he earned the submission of the night honors against C.B. Dollaway, but I think he has his work cut out for him against Simpson. What Simpson gives up in age he makes up for in explosively athletic wrestling ability, and I believe he will use these tools to dominate and finish Lawlor early on. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Aaron Simpson.

Jack: This fight will come down to who the better wrestler is, and the better wrestler is Aaron Simpson. While Lawlor’s last performance against C.B. Dolloway was no doubt impressive, it has to be put into context as it was against a fighter who seems to love getting caught in bad positions and submissions. Simpson will score takedowns here, and I don’t feel that Lawlor can do enough from his back to stop the usually active Simpson from doing damage. Simpson stops him from top position near the end of the second. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Aaron Simpson.

Miles: Tom Lawlor is awesome, as anyone who dresses up as Harold Howard deserves all the praise in the world. Unfortunately, sweet tongue-in-cheek costumes don’t win you fights and I foresee Lawlor having problems with the power, explosiveness, and wrestling of Aaron Simpson. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Aaron Simpson.


The Final Forecast: Simpson stops Lawlor and continues his ascent up the MW ladder.


Amir Sadollah vs. “Bad” Brad Blackburn

Jamie: This is a big fight for both men. If Sadollah wins, this fight could spring him back into people’s minds a serious fighter at 170, while a win for Blackburn will push him up towards the next level of competition. I think Blackburn is pretty well rounded, but lacking a little bit in the stand-up, not a lot, but I think enough for Sadollah to be able to capitalize. I think Sadollah can control the striking on his way to a decision win. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Amir Sadollah.

Jack: While Amir’s last performance against Phil Baroni was fairly underwhelming to say the least, Blackburn has never really impressed me and has lost to worse fighters than Amir in his time. I still think Amir has the potential to improve and have a place in the UFC, albeit on the undercard and/or UFN events. As long as Amir can stay out of trouble, I think his more diverse striking arsenal will be too much for Blackburn, allowing him to pepper his way to a decision win. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Amir Sadollah.

Miles: This fight comes down to who can control the kicking distance. Although Blackburn has the superior hands and more technical combinations, Sadollah is arguably the more powerful kicker with a significantly improved clinch game (as Phil Baroni discovered). Sadollah gets hit a little too often for my liking and I don’t see him having the power to really hurt Blackbur, unless he keeps the fight in the clinch. I think Blackburn will be ready for Amir’s kicks, which are certainly more telegraphed than the ones Chonan throws, and that will frustrate Amir who doesn’t exactly have the wrestling to get this fight to the ground. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Brad Blackburn.


The Final Forecast: Amir Sadollah proves that he is TUF enough for the UFC.


Chris “The Crippler” Leben vs. Jay Silva

Jamie: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Chris Leben.

Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Chris Leben.

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Chris Leben.


The Final Forecast: Leben and Silva visit a buffet of punishment with “The Crippler” eating less plates of punches than his Brazilian counterpart.


Jesse Lennox vs. Rick “The Horror” Story

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Rick Story.

Jack: Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Jesse Lennox.

Miles: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Rick Story.


The Final Forecast: Story finishes with a happy ending.


Nik Lentz vs. Thiago Tavares

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Nik Lentz.

Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Nik Lentz.

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Thiago Tavares.


The Final Forecast: Lentz continues Thiago Tavares’ spiral into obscurity within the lightweight division.


Rory MacDonald vs. Mike "The Joker" Guymon

Jamie: Winner via 1st round Submission: Rory MacDonald.

Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Rory MacDonald.

Miles: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Rory MacDonald.


The Final Forecast: MacDonald puts an end to “The Joker” and his laughter.


Rafael dos Anjos vs. Kyle Bradley

Jamie: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Kyle Bradley.

Jack: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Rafael dos Anjos.

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Rafael dos Anjos.


The Final Forecast: Dos Anjos puts Kyle Bradley back onto the losing track.


Gerald Harris vs. John Salter

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Gerald Harris.

Jack: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Gerald Harris.

Miles: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Gerald Harris.


The Final Forecast: Gerald Harris returns to the UFC and shows just how much his game has improved since TUF. Props to Salter for coming in on short notice!


Nick “The Jersey Devil” Catone vs. Jesse “Kid Hercules” Forbes

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jesse Forbes.

Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Nick Catone.

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Nick Catone.


The Final Forecast: Nick Catone outmuscles and works “Kid Hercules” for the favor of the judges.



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