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The FightLockdown Forecast - WEC 44: Brown vs. Aldo
Written by Miles Hackett   
Tuesday, 17 November 2009 17:12
Tomorrow night at The Pearl on the Palms, in Las Vegas, Nevada, WEC 44 will finally arrive, bringing us undoubtedly the most anticipated Featherweight title fight in MMA history, along with a slew of many other great fights. On the forecast panel today are:

Jamie Hughes (35-19, 64.8%)
Joshua Taylor (19-8, 70.4%)
Brad Taschuk (41-24, 63.1%)
Matt Bremner (15-12, 55.6%)
Miles Hackett (43-20, 68.3%)

Final Forecast consensus picking stats (as of Strikeforce – Fedor vs. Rogers): 46-27 (63.0%)


Featherweight Championship Bout: Mike Brown vs. Jose Aldo

Jamie Hughes: So in the main event of WEC 44 we have an epic clash between the defending FW champion Mike Brown and Brazilian sensation, Jose Aldo. For me, this fight is a really tough one to call. So I will start with what Brown’s keys to victory could be. I think Brown will need to stay very disciplined standing and look to use his very good wrestling ability and tremendous strength in an attempt to bully and control Aldo over the course of the five rounds. For Aldo, his main weapon is going to be his explosive striking game and he should look to use angles and clever footwork to keep Brown at distance, while trying to keep his back off the cage. It’ll be interesting to see if Aldo is able to deal with a dominant wrestler and perhaps we will get to see some of Aldo’s ground game. I can see Aldo taking this fight via stoppage, making him the new featherweight champ. Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Jose Aldo.

Joshua Taylor: Both of these fighters are very well rounded, but there are some unanswered questions about Jose Aldo. We know he is extremely aggressive and very dangerous, but how good is his ground game? How good is his chin? How will he handle being pressured and grinded on for five rounds? These are all questions I believe will be answered in this fight because I think Brown has the ability to test all those areas. While both fighters have the ability to end the fight at any moment, I think we will see a 5-round takedown and grind out war from Brown where he will control and pound on Aldo to successfully defend his title. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Mike Brown.

Brad Taschuk: It’s extremely hard to break this fight down in just one paragraph, since both have shown very few weaknesses in their run up to this showdown. Brown has shown devastating power, solid wrestling and a much improved submission game. The only weakness Brown could potentially show against Aldo is that his striking defense isn’t the best, however, he possesses a stellar chin, which allows him to get away with it. Aldo has many more questions surrounding his game, since we’ve only really seen him demolishing foes with a diverse array of striking. The only real ground work we’ve seen from Aldo is him relentlessly smashing Pequeno Nogueira’s face in, although Aldo is touted as having exquisite ground skills. The biggest things Aldo has going for him in this particular match-up are his devastating knees, blinding speed, and underrated takedown defense. Brown certainly knows and respects the power Jose holds in his knees, and could potentially shy away from shooting in for takedowns, or spending too much time in the clinch because of it. Even when he does shoot, he has to contend with Aldo’s takedown defense before he can work his top game, and I think the combination of those things will lead us to seeing a primarily stand-up affair. In that realm, I just see Aldo’s speed and variety taking over, since Brown struggled at times with Faber’s speed in their second contest. Now the question becomes, “can Aldo stop Brown with strikes for the first time in his career?” I think I’ve already gone over my word allowance on this one, so find out my answer below. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Jose Aldo.

Matt Bremner: I haven't been picking for the site very long, but I think this is the toughest fight to call that we've had in 2009, if not longer. We have a tough as nails wrestler against one of the most explosive fighters to come out of any weight class who combines power, speed and finesse in a way that few can ever muster. The other advantage that Aldo holds is that no one knows about his ground skills, training at Nova, he probably as incredible ground skills, but we don't know, so this could hit the ground and Brown could be in an armbar in no time, or Aldo could have the Denis Kang BJJ Black Belt (though this is very unlikely). I think Aldo has a lot of advantages, but I think people are overlooking Brown, if only slightly, because Brown isn't overly flashy. His chin is solid, he's never been KO'd and he spent a lot of time above his natural weight class. There's no way to pick this fight with any certainty, but I'm going to take Brown because I simply believe in his ability to get the job done, but I wouldn't bet much on it, this is going to be insanity at its finest. Winner via Split Decision: Mike Thomas Brown.

Miles Hackett: Again, I find myself in the tiebreaker role for a main event. I’ll keep this short and sweet, seeing as you likely fell asleep through Brad’s diatribe. It’s a matter of survival for Mike Brown in this fight because he’s outclassed on the feet big time. Aldo has shown good takedown defense in the past, but I think he’s going to have been working on timing knees throughout his whole training camp, just in case he can’t stop Brown’s shot. The combination of Aldo being so explosive, powerful, and diverse on the feet will make Brown hesitant to shoot in. I’ve never been impressed with Brown’s ability to set-up his takedowns, as he’s simply bullied most of his opponents to the ground with pure strength, and I think that’s the hole in his game that Aldo will be able to exploit. Unless Brown can intelligently get the fight to the ground and effectively work in Aldo’s guard, he’s in for a long night, as 25 minutes is too long of a time to avoid being hurt badly by someone like Aldo. Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Jose Aldo.


The Final Forecast: Jose Aldo stops Mike Brown's reign of terror, while carrying on his own.


Manvel "Pitbull" Gamburyan vs. Leonard "Bad Boy" Garcia

Jamie: Next up, we have Manvel Gamburyan against former featherweight title contender Leonard Garcia. This is an interesting fight in that both men are very similar, as both have heavy hands and some good ground skills. The game-plan for Gamburyan should be to keep everything simple standing and not be drawn into a slugfest with Garcia, while using his very good trips and throws from the clinch to put Garcia on his back where he can try to control him. Garcia should keep the fight standing, where he can use his reach advantage in the form of his jab to keep Gamburyan at distance, looking to soften him up before stepping up the pace over the later rounds. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Leonard Garcia.

Joshua: Leonard is trying to rebound from his unsuccessful title challenge and after his split decision win over Massouh in his last bout, he will want to make a statement here. Garcia will undoubtedly have the striking advantage and Manny will be looking to get the fight to the mat as soon as possible. Interestingly though, of Leonard’s first ten fights, he won eight by submission, so he is no slouch in the grappling department. I think Manny will be successful in getting the fight down on occasion, but Garcia will survive and get the fight back standing where eventually he will score a TKO victory. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Leonard Garcia.

Brad: I think the difference in this fight will be that Manny Gamburyan remembers what got him to this point in his career, while Leonard Garcia has strayed pretty far away from his strengths. I see Gamburyan getting in tight on Garcia, dragging him to the ground, and bringing the more UFC mentality of winning at the expense of excitement to my beloved WEC. Leonard’s wildness on the feet will allow Manny to employ this strategy effectively, and unfortunately encourage him to use it moving forward. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Manny Gamburyan.

Matt: Manvel Gamburyan is coming off what, in my estimation are three uninspired performances. However, he comes in with strength and a wrestling advantage on his opponent Leonard Garcia. Garcia is also coming off two performances where he didn't look to be the wrecking machine he was advertised as. A solid shot and a choke ended his title hopes and his split decision win over the always game, but somewhat journeyman-like, Massouh, didn't inspire confidence. On the topic of not having confidence, I have no confidence that Garcia can keep this fight on the feet, unless Manny tries to do what he did against Rob Emerson, he should get him down and win a positionally dominant and somewhat unexciting finish. However, if he tries to throw hands, he'll wake up forgetting where he is. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Manny Gamburyan.

Miles: I see the fight unfolding like Matt and Brad. I think Garcia’s wrestling has always been a problem for him, and that’s no good when facing a powerful takedown artist like Gamburyan. Leonard has the power to knock Manny out, but his striking has become incredibly predictable as of late, as evidenced in his recent encounter with Jameel Massouh. Unless Garcia’s camp revolved around working from his back, mixing-up his striking better and not throwing power in all of his shots, he’s going to be on the receiving end of an uninspired blanket performance by Gamburyan. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Manny Gamburyan.


The Final Forecast: Manny smothers Leonard for an uneventful three rounds.


"Razor" Rob McCullough vs. Karen Darabedyan

Jamie: This fight is a very tough fight for McCullough, even though not a lot is known of Darabedyan. What we do know, is that he is a Judo black belt, who doesn’t mind keeping a fight because he has a decent kickboxing and boxing background. McCullough will look to keep the fight in his preferred element of striking, testing the Armenian’s skills, while aiming to out-point or knock him out. Darabedyan will also look to keep the fight upright, but if he gets in trouble standing, he has good enough judo skills to put McCullough on his back. I can see Darabedyan pulling of the upset. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Karen Darabedyan.

Joshua: Newcomer taking on an old dog of the WEC in this bout. As of late we have seen “Razor” fall from glory and struggle mightily. Once the LW champion of the WEC, he has only won two of his past four bouts, and they have both been by split decision. The cure for that? A newcomer who will stand and trade with him. Enter Karen Darabedyan. I see McCullough getting back to his old ways in this bout and earning himself a TKO victory, thus making the debut of Karen an unsuccessful one. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Rob McCullough.

Brad: My very limited exposure to Karen Darabedyan has taught me that he’s a judoka who likes to strike. I think in his upcoming fight with Razor Rob, he’d be smarter to go back to his roots: take McCullough down, and work from there. McCullough is still one of the most dangerous strikers in the LW division, and as long as this fight stays on the feet, I have to give him the edge. Although, as we’ve seen many times in the past in the WEC, we simply do not know enough about these debuting fighters to get the most accurate reads on them (see: Semerzier, Mackens), and anything is possible. Still, the safe money says "Razor". Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Rob McCullough.

Matt: No one wants to see Karen Darabedyan be good more than I do, well, maybe Brad, that kid loves him some judo. That said, I don't think this is the fight where he makes a name for himself. McCullough is no joke on the feet and Karen has 3 weeks notice for this fight. I expect “Razor” Rob to use his excellent counter-punching to catch Darabedyan coming in and put him to sleep. However, McCullough will need to come equipped with the killer instinct that has been absent of late. That said, his takedown defense should be enough to earn him a win and cruelly welcome the WEC's newest judoka. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Rob McCullough.

Miles: Ever since being stopped by Jamie Varner, McCullough hasn’t looked like championship material. He’s faced strong wrestlers with big power, which has deterred him from throwing caution to the wind, and fortunately for him, Karen Darabedyan doesn’t fit that criteria. I think Rob will be patient on the feet, and Darabedyan’s desire to make an impressive debut will lead him to making a mistake, such as attempting to enter the clinch without using strikes to do so. Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Rob McCullough.


The Final Forecast: McCullough punishes Darabedyan for walking the Razor's edge.


Danny Castillo vs. Shane Roller

Jamie: And rounding off the main card, a lightweight showdown between the highly-rated Danny Castillo and strong wrestler, Shane Roller. This fight is going to come down to who has the better wrestling and who has the superior stand-up. I can see Castillo using his superior striking to wear down Roller and use his higher caliber wrestling to take the fight down should he wish on his way to a decision victory. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Danny Castillo.

Joshua: I really like this fight and think it will be very competitive, as both guys are near the top of WEC’s LW division. Castillo comes in on a three fight win streak and looks to earn a title shot with another victory here. Roller will be a tough test for him though as he possesses both striking and grappling skills. I see a three round war which pushes both fighters to the limit and in the end it will be Danny’s hand that is raised. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Danny Castillo.

Brad: I’m quite surprised that so many people have Castillo taking this fight. Prior to the Henderson fight, Roller was seen as one of the top LW prospects, but apparently losing to the now interim LW champion is an irrecoverable setback. Here’s how I see this fight: both are wrestlers, but Roller is the better wrestler by a considerable margin. That means, if he wants to play the striking game - which is probably the most dangerous thing for him to do - he can, and if that doesn’t go well he can take Castillo down, and work his ground game, where I see him having an edge as well. Both guys have some power, as Roller had Henderson reeling for a couple moments and Castillo put Lamas down, but I see this fight going the distance. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Shane Roller.

Matt: When two solid collegiate wrestlers get together for a fight, a fairy loses its wings and an angel gets hepatitis. However, this fight has the potential to be quite entertaining, and I'd give it a great shot at Fight of the Night -- until Aldo and Brown rock this card 'til the wheels fall off. Castillo's game is definitely using his wrestling in a Liddell fashion to stay on his feet and put hands to faces. Roller likes to get guys to the ground, beat them up and then rob them of consciousness or air, whatever he prefers. I have to take Roller's ability to get it to the floor and dominate there based on his wrestling history, but I am just excited to see this fight. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Shane Roller.

Miles: No pressure Miles, you just have to break the stalemate.. again. I think Roller’s power will be too much for Castillo to contend with. Standing Castillo may have a wider array of weapons, but Roller has the one hitter quitter, and the edge in the wrestling game should he realize he’s not going to land the FALCON PUNCH. Both guys are tough as nails, but I think Roller’s wrestling and top control will give Castillo shitfits for three rounds. An exciting match-up, regardless. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Shane Roller.


The Final Forecast: Shane overpowers and controls Danny Castillo for 15 minutes.



Kamal Shalorus vs. Will Kerr

Jamie: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Kamal Shalorus.

Joshua: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Kamal Shalorus.

Brad: Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Kamal Shalorus.

Matt: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Kamal Shalorus.

Miles: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Kamal Shalorus.


The Final Forecast: Kerr succumbs to the early storm of Shalorus.


Diego "The Gun" Nunes vs. L.C. Davis

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Diego Nunes.

Joshua: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Diego Nunes.

Brad: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Diego Nunes.

Matt: Winner via Split Decision: Diego Nunes.

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Diego Nunes.


The Final Forecast: "The Gun" holds-up Davis and takes him for all he's worth.


Cub Swanson vs. John Franchi

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Cub Swanson.

Joshua: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Cub Swanson.

Brad: Winner via Split Decision: John Franchi.

Matt: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Cub Swanson.

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Cub Swanson.


The Final Forecast: Swanson rebounds from the surgery that removed Jose Aldo's knees from his face with a one-sided win over John Franchi.


Antonio Banuelos vs. Kenji Osawa

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Antonio Banuelos.

Joshua: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Antonio Banuelos.

Brad: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Antonio Banuelos.

Matt: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Antonio Banuelos.

Miles: Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Antonio Banuelos.


The Final Forecast: Banuelos eeks out another win from an exciting brawl.


Ricardo Lamas vs. James Krause

Jamie: Winner via 2nd round Submission: James Krause.

Joshua: Winner via 2nd round Submission: James Krause.

Brad: Winner via 2nd round Submission: James Krause.

Matt: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Ricardo Lamas. (everyone pray that this gets televised!)

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Ricardo Lamas.


The Final Forecast: Krause taps Lamas in two.


Seth "2 Quik" Dikun vs. Frank Gomez

Jamie: Winner via 1st round Submission: Seth Dikun.

Joshua: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Frank Gomez.

Brad: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Frank Gomez.

Matt: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Frank Gomez.

Miles: Winner via 1st round Submission: Seth Dikun.


The Final Forecast: Frank proves that Seth isn't "2 Quik" for him.