| The FightLockdown Forecast - WEC 46: Varner vs. Henderson |
| Written by Miles Hackett |
| Sunday, 10 January 2010 15:31 |
 Once again, the WEC is bringing us yet another stacked card with WEC 46: Varner vs. Henderson. On the forecast panel today are Brad Taschuk, David Anthony, Jamie Hughes, Joshua Taylor, and Miles Hackett. WEC cards are notoriously unpredictable and home to plenty of upsets, let’s see how our picks compare to yours!Main Card
Jamie “The Worm” Varner vs. Ben “Smooth” Henderson
Miles Hackett: Looking at their respective performances against Donald Cerrone is the basis of my prediction for Varner/Henderson. Henderson beat Cerrone on the scorecards with takedowns (that Donald allowed him to secure, far too easily) and a patient top game. There was no point in Cerrone/Henderson where anyone can say Henderson was “dominant” or “close to stopping” Cerrone. Conversely, Varner’s performance (not the one at the end of the fight) was impressive because on numerous occasions he won stand-up exchanges and caused some serious damage on the ground to “the Cowboy”. This is how I see it: Varner won’t give up takedowns, which will allow him to keep the fight standing. Henderson’s inability to get the fight to the ground in combination with his lack of a kicking game (despite being a TKD black-belt) will not make Jamie hesitate with his hands. Look for Henderson to stay out of reach and shoot as Jamie comes in with punches, expect Varner to stuff him repeatedly, and either take him down or out with strikes, standing or on the mat. Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Jamie Varner.
Brad Taschuk: Another great LW title bout awaits us in this fight, as we finally get to see Jamie Varner make his return to the ring after nearly a year off. In the meantime, Ben Henderson has put together one of the best resumes of 2009, defeating Anthony Njokuani, Shane Roller and Donald Cerrone. Henderson has fared well separately against the weapons Varner brings to the cage, as Roller is a more accomplished wrestler and both Cerrone and Njokuani are more diverse strikers. I think Henderson's rapid development can only be aided by training with B.J. Penn prior to this fight, and he continues to impress using his well-rounded skill-set. Varner does have the power to end this one quickly, and Henderson has shown a propensity to get hit, but I think the layoff will affect Jamie's speed and timing (and conditioning in the later rounds), allowing Henderson to emerge unscathed. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Ben Henderson.
David Anthony: Ben Henderson is an amazingly game opponent for Varner to take on after a long layoff. But this is the plight of an MMA champ. I think Varner showed some mental weakness in the Cerrone fight, and he can't afford it against Ben Henderson. Though Benson lacks the technical striking ability that Varner brings to the table, he has no quit in him. I think Varner comes in strong until Ben finds his rhythm and dismantles the champ. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Ben Henderson.
Jamie Hughes: This fight is very close to call. Both men possess very high calibre wrestling, both are very aware on the ground – and in my opinion are about equal there. I think the difference between Varner and Cerrone boils down to who can control the pace of the fight with the better stand-up. I believe Varner to have the more polished stand-up and if he uses it well he can control long periods of the fight on the feet and gain a decision win. But if Henderson can mix up his striking with his wrestling like he has shown in his previous bouts, he can cause Varner problems. This fight is very evenly matched, but I am going to go with Henderson edging it. Winner via Split Decision: Ben Henderson.
Joshua Taylor: This year I am really trying to be objective in my picks rather than choosing with my heart, which I am very guilty of in the past. I am a huge fan of Benson and I think he is a rising star, but I think this is a bad match-up for him. Varner is coming off a long layoff so rust and cardio could play a factor, but I think he knows he has something to prove and will come in shape. Varner comes from a wrestling camp and has good TDD which will pose problems for Benson. Varner will want this on the feet where he has the striking advantage and I think he will be able to keep it there and punish Henderson on the feet for five rounds to gain a decision victory. I do, however, think he better come out strong and take the first three rounds clearly because by the 4th and 5th, I think things will start to swing towards Benson. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jamie Varner.
The Final Forecast: Ben Henderson continues his impressive win streak in the WEC by unifying the LW titles, becoming the undisputed champ.
Urijah “The California Kid” Faber vs. Raphael Assunção
Miles: In typical fashion, the winner of this one gets a shot at Jose Aldo, a blessing or a curse? Assunção, as of late, has become a brawler, and that’s slightly disconcerting, seeing as his greatest strength lies on the ground. Faber will enter the more explosive and experienced fighter, with a better standing arsenal and slightly better wrestling acumen. I think he’ll be able to mix-up his striking enough to outpoint Assunção and his scrambling ability will allow him to get back to his feet if Raphael goes for a takedown. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Urijah Faber.
Brad: Somehow, people forgot to tell the odds-makers that Raphael Assunção is a great fighter, since he is listed at +400 or higher on most sites. Faber brings great skills and physical abilities to this fight, but he still tends to get wild too often for my liking, and Assunção is a straight forward striker who can capitalize on that. Faber holds the wrestling advantage, but he'd be wise to not take Assunção down, as Raphael has a clear advantage on the mats. I'm picking the upset here, as I truly think Assunção has what it takes to keep Faber away from yet another title shot (at least for one fight). Winner via Split Decision: Raphael Assunção.
David: It's crazy that the betting lines have seemed to cut Assunção out of this fight. He is a very tough dude that could exploit Urijah's wild "I only move forward" fighting style. But, I think Urijah's drive to get another shot at the belt will see him come into this fight ultra prepared for everything his opponent brings to the table. I think Urijah comes in aware of his opponent's strengths and takes the fight. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Urijah Faber.
Jamie: This fight, for me, is a lot closer than the bookies have it down as. I think Faber has an edge in the speed department and he can win this fight by using it in the form of implementing a lot of angles and movement, frustrating Assunção into making mistakes and that will leave openings for Faber to outpoint him. Assunção will need to walk Faber down in the stand-up and cut off the room for Faber to move, he should look to get the fight to the mat and work where he has a significant advantage too. Faber has good scrambling skills, but Assunção's ground game is very tight and he could easily submit Faber from there. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Raphael Assunção.
Joshua: Another fighter I like and want to see do well in the WEC is Assunção, but he has been matched up with the Golden Child. I actually think this will be a close fight as both fighters are very talented everywhere the fight goes but I think in a fight like this you have to look at intangibles. Faber has been on the big stage in the WEC througout his career and I think will be more comfortable and relaxed. That leads to better cardio and implementing your game better. I see Urijah controlling enough of the fight to take a decision victory but will leave fans wishing this was a five rounder. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Urijah Faber.
The Final Forecast: Urijah Faber sneaks by Assunção and jumps right into a bear trap (challenging Jose Aldo for the belt).
Dave “The Fugitive” Jansen vs. Kamal “The Prince of Persia” Shalorus
Miles: If I learned anything from Dave Jansen’s fight with Rich Crunkilton, it’s that he gets hit far too much for my liking. Even though he’s faced and prevailed against more experienced competition than Shalorus, I think that Kamal, despite his age, packs more of a punch than Crunkilton. Jansen managed to secure takedowns against Crunkilton by catching sloppy and repetitive kicks when he was in trouble, but Shalorus is known as more of a power puncher, so those openings for takedowns won’t be as glaringly obvious. I think Jansen’s lacklustre defense is a bad hole to have when facing a powerful striker like Kamal. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Kamal Shalorus.
Brad: Dave Jansen and Kamal Shalorus both impressed in their debuts with the WEC, now their contrasting wrestling styles will clash. Shalorus is likely the better wrestler, and is also the more powerful of the two fighters, which creates and interesting dynamic. If Jansen can find a way to get this fight down, his submission game should more than be able to handle Kamal, and I think his experience will allow him to do just that. Winner via 3rd round Submission: Dave Jansen.
David: This is a really hard fight to call. Kamal looked like an absolute animal in his WEC debut, as did Jansen. Jansen comes into this fight with more experience. If he can avoid getting knocked out, Jansen should be able to get this fight to the ground and make it happen there. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Dave Jansen.
Jamie: Another fight at 155, two undefeated men put there perfect records on the line with Dave Jansen taking on Kamal Shalorus. Both men have very good wrestling and I believe a lot of the fight will take place on the feet. Jansen, in my opinion, has the edge here and can use his striking to soften-up Shalorus for the takedown, eventually forcing a late stoppage, putting himself in the mix at 155. Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Dave Jansen.
Joshua: In Jansen's first fight in the WEC I thought he looked very impressive against a very tough and game Rich Crunkilton and I think he will come into this fight with that same confidence. Jansen will obviously want to get this fight down to the mat and work his submissions on the striker Shalorus. While I think he may have a tough time early on when Kamal is fresh, I do see the fight hitting the mat and Jansen securing a submission by the second round. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Dave Jansen.
The Final Forecast: The Fugitive’s heart, toughness, and ground game, keep him running.. towards a LW title shot.
Mike Brown vs. Anthony “Cheesesteak” Morrison
Miles: I think Morrison is in over his head. Despite being dummied by Jose Aldo, Mike Brown is an absolute wrecking machine. I’m expecting him to return to the winner’s circle by pushing the pace immediately against Morrison, earning the takedown and trapping him against the cage, where he’ll blast “cheesesteak” with some brutal ground and pound. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Mike Brown.
Brad: Anthony Morrison is a solid fighter, but solid fighters at FW don't beat Mike Brown. Brown will be looking to get back on track against Morrison, and he will likely make an example of him. Look for a shot to drop Morrison, and then Brown to finish this fight however he chooses. I see a lot of strikes. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Mike Brown.
David: I would love to say Morrison has a chance against Mike Brown, but I just don't see it. Although "Cheesesteak" is a solid fighter in his own right, he has never had to put it together against a competitor as tough as Brown. Mike takes it to the mat at will and makes "cheesesteak" out of Anthony's face. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Mike Brown.
Jamie: I expect a typical Mike Brown performance in this fight. He will be hungry to get back in contention at 145 and I think he will use his combination of good boxing skills, strength, and wrestling ability to overwhelm Morrison. Brown will have to be patient and not rush though, as Morrison does have good power in his stand-up. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Mike Brown.
Joshua: YES! The return of Mike Thomas Brown! I am glad he is jumping back in there because Brown wants to wipe that title loss out of fans minds. Brown is undoubtedly one of the very best FW's in the world and I think it will show in this fight. I see Brown coming out mad and looking to end this quickly. Morrison will be overwhelmed and TKO'd quickly. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Mike Brown.
The Final Forecast: On his quest back to the 145lb title, Mike Brown devours some “Cheesesteak”.
Mackens “Mack da Menace” Semerzier vs. Deividas Taurosevičius
Miles: This is certainly one of the tougher fight for me to pick on the card, namely because so little is known of Mackens Semerzier, beyond his knack for submitting high-level BJJ black-belts with his guard. Taurosevičius is a big strong wrestler with a smothering top game, but I think Semerzier will be able to win the stand-up exchanges and negate any major attacks from Deividas inside his guard. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Mackens Semerzier.
Brad: I haven't seen enough from Mackens Semerzier to be sold on him, although he seems like he has all the potential in the world. Taurosevičius on the other hand is a proven competitor, who suffered from a great deal of ring rust against Javier Vazquez. Will Semerzier prove himself as the real deal? I think Taurosevičius stops the hype momentarily by grinding out a decision in this one. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Deividas Taurosevičius.
David: In a battle of difficult to pronounce names, we have two guys who have won most of their fights by submission. Taurosevičius, though, brings in the most experience and again, I will lean to the way of the more experienced fighter exposing the unknown factors of Semerzier. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Deividas Taurosevičius.
Jamie: If this fight plays out the way I hope it does, we could be treated to a ground war as both men posses some very slick skills on the mat. The stand-up will be cagey and both men will be looking for the takedown early. When this fight does hit the ground, as I expect, I can see Semerzier having the slight edge over Taurosevičius and will have enough to trouble and control Taurosevičius on the way to either a unanimous decision or late submission win. Winner via 3rd round Submission: Mackens Semerzier.
Joshua: A couple of relative newcomers who have made some waves in their debuts here. Semerzier shocked the world with his submission victory over Wagnney, but honestly I think much of that had to do with Fabiano underestimating his late-replacement opponent. Deividas has more experience and has fought some very game opponents during his career. I think Mackens will be somewhat overconfident with his win over Wagnney and will be upset by Deividas. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Deividas Taurosevičius.
The Final Forecast: Taurosevičius expires Semerzier’s 15 minutes of fame with a lesson in wrestling and control.
 Preliminary Card
Charlie Valencia vs. Akitoshi “Ironman” Tamura
Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Akitoshi Tamura.
Brad: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Akitoshi Tamura.
David: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Akitoshi Tamura.
Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Akitoshi Tamura.
Joshua: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Akitoshi Tamura.
The Final Forecast: Tamura outworks Valencia in all aspects of the game, winning the judges’ favor.
Wagnney Fabiano vs. Clint Godfrey
Miles: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Waggney Fabiano.
Brad: Winner via 1st round Submission: Wagnney Fabiano.
David: Winner via 1st round Submission: Wagnney Fabiano.
Jamie: Winner via 1st round Submission: Wagnney Fabiano.
Joshua: Winner via 1st round Submission: Wagnney Fabiano.
The Final Forecast: Fabiano returns a hungrier fighter at bantamweight and instantly makes an impact on the division with a decisive whomping of Clint Godfrey.
Mark “The Machine” Hominick vs. Bryan Caraway
Miles: Winner via Split Decision: Mark Hominick.
Brad: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Mark Hominick.
David: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Mark Hominick. Jamie: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Bryan Caraway.
Joshua: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Mark Hominick.
The Final Forecast: Despite a long lay-off, “The Machine” tenderizes Caraway's face in his WEC return.
Eddie Wineland vs. George Roop
Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Eddie Wineland.
Brad: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Eddie Wineland.
David: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Eddie Wineland.
Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: George Roop.
Joshua: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Eddie Wineland.
The Final Forecast: Eddie Wineland takes a poop on George Roop’s 135lb title dreams.
Coty “Ox” Wheeler vs. Will Campuzano
Miles: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Coty Wheeler.
Brad: Winner via 1st round Submission: Coty Wheeler.
David: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Coty Wheeler.
Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Coty Wheeler.
Joshua: Winner via 1st round Submission: Coty Wheeler.
The Final Forecast: “Ox” exposes the ground game of young Will Campuzano.
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