Home Categories Miscellaneous The FightLockdown Forecast - UFC 109: Relentless
The FightLockdown Forecast - UFC 109: Relentless
Written by Miles Hackett   
Friday, 05 February 2010 20:00
After a rather lengthy hiatus, the folks over at Zuffa LLC are finally bringing us UFC 109: Relentless, and once again, FightLockdown’s writing staff will be giving you an idea of what to expect. On the panel tonight are David Anthony, Jamie Hughes, Joshua Taylor, Jack Barrington, and Brad Taschuk. See what’s on their minds, after the jump!


Mark “The Hammer” Coleman vs. Randy “The Natural” Couture

David Anthony: The biggest MMA promotion in the world brings us yet another main event that no one should care about. Mark Coleman and Randy Couture are the oldest fighters currently in the UFC and they will be duking it out to see who is... less old? Anyway, most people are looking past Coleman, but "The Hammer" is still dangerous. Especially to Randy, who has been dropped a few times in his last three fights. That said, even though Coleman has a chance in this fight, I will have to go with the safe bet: Randy leaning "The Hammer" against the cage for three rounds, unjustifiably becoming the next #1 contender. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Randy Couture.

Jamie Hughes: So in the main event of UFC 109, with a combined age of 91, two former heavyweight champs face off in the shape of Mark Coleman and Randy Couture. This fight is rather simple to breakdown: for the first round Coleman will be a very dangerous threat with his takedowns which even at his age are still very good, but I can only see him having enough gas for one round. I can see Couture weathering an early storm of takedown attempts and clinch work , but in the later two rounds using his dirty boxing and his energy sapping brand of greco-roman wrestling to control and grind out Coleman. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Randy Couture.

Joshua Taylor: Who cares? I guess since the higher-ups of FLD are forcing me to make a pick here, so I will. I kid, I kid. But seriously, Couture can and will easily take this fight and may very well “earn” a title shot which again, no one wants to see. Anyways, Coleman will come out aggressive early, looking for takedowns, but will tire quickly. Couture will own the stand-up until he is able to finish an exhausted and half-dead “Hammer” with strikes in the third. Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Randy Couture.

Jack Barrington: Does anyone care about this fight? No? Good, I'm glad we're on the same page. Both fighters have (or at least had) good wrestling, the difference is, that's all that Mark Coleman's ever had. Couture has better boxing and clinch work, not to mention a much better gas tank. I'm going to give Coleman the edge in terms of the better chin, but that won't matter here. The first round may be interesting, and Coleman may even steal it, but by the end of the night there's going to be no question who the winner is. Randy Couture out-boxes and out-clinches Coleman to a clear decision win, but hopefully not to an outrageously undeserved shot at the belt. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Randy Couture.

Brad Taschuk: I share the same sentiments with the rest of my colleagues, in that this fight should in no way be masquerading as a main event. Coleman can win the first by powering through Randy to get him to the floor, but when he slows even a little, Couture will work under-hooks, push Coleman up against the fence and bore him (and us) to death. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Randy Couture.


The Final Forecast: In the battle of dinosaurs, Couture avoids extinction and glides to a future 205 title fight.


Chael “The Troll” Sonnen vs. Nate “The Great” Marquardt

David: Chael looked great against Okami and a half-dead Paulo Fihlo, but he's going to have his hands full with Nate. Marquardt is the superior striker and won't be overwhelmed if Sonnen tries to pressure him like he did Okami. If Nate knocks Sonnen out, I will be too happy to care who wins the Superbowl. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Nate Marquardt.

Jamie: I think this fight could well be determined by which fighter gets the advantage on the feet. On paper, Marquardt has the superior stand-up and punching power, and this will force Sonnen into using his very good wrestling base. But I believe Marquardt has the well-rounded skills to deal with Sonnen in all areas, forcing a late stoppage. Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Nate Marquardt.

Joshua: So Dana finally confirms this matchup will be a #1 contenders bout which will surely motivate Marquardt even more than he was. Sonnen has been in the news a lot lately, but it always seems to be because he is running his mouth trying to make waves. He does have the ability to grind out wins against tough competition, but I think Nate is much too large and much too skilled to allow Sonnen to win a decision here. In fact, I believe Nate will control where this fight takes place the majority of the fight by not allowing Chael to clinch him against the cage. By the second round Nate will surely stun Sonnen with strikes and lock in a fight ending submission – very likely a choke. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Nate Marquardt.

Jack: Nate Marquardt has better striking and grappling, Chael Sonnen has the better wrestling and-trash talk. A part of me wants to see Sonnen take this fight, purely to hear his thoughts on the rest of the division in his post-fight interview. However, logic prevails, and I'm taking Nate to win a clear decision by way of staying off his back for too long, preventing Chael from controlling him in the clinch, out-striking him, and to be blunt, simply being a far better mixed-martial artist. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Nate Marquardt.

Brad: People really seem to be taking a hating to Chael Sonnen, but I have to say, I love the guy. His style is as boring as they come, but he more than makes up for it with his hilarious interviews. I think many people are using their distaste for Chael and using it to predict a beatdown, but Chael has never actually been knocked out, and even when he's been submitted it's been by excellent grapplers (Maia, Filho, Sobral and Horn in the last 5 years). Still, Marquardt is better standing and on the ground, so Sonnen can essentially pick where he wants to lose this fight. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Nate Marquardt.


The Final Forecast: Nate "The Great" crosses Sonnen's bridge after pummeling MMA's biggest troll.


Paulo Thiago vs. Mike “Quick” Swick

David: Tough fight to call as Paulo Thiago has been looking much better since his UFC debut. His striking and wrestling has improved on top of already having a touted BJJ game. Swick is coming off a pretty embarrassing loss against Hardy, and looking to avenge. All logic tells me that Thiago takes this. The only person to take him out in the UFC has been the always exciting Jon Fitch by laying on top of him for three rounds, which I don't think "Quick" is capable of doing. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Paulo Thiago.

Jamie: This is a pretty close fight. Swick does possess good stand up, BJJ, and wrestling, while Thiago has some very solid BJJ and judo skills which could help him to control Swick. That said, I am going with Swick to come back strong from his recent defeat to Hardy and get TKO victory. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Mike Swick.

Joshua: Personally I am really back and forth on this fight as Swick hasn’t really impressed me as of late, while Paulo has been looking much improved. This fight will obviously mean quite a bit to Swick who looks to get back into title consideration after his lacklustre decision loss to Dan Hardy, and he will have a lot of help at AKA, as both Fitch and Kos have fought Paulo before. What will decide the fight is Paulo’s confidence in his stand-up. If he feels confident enough to stand and trade with Swick. I believe he will lose the bout, but if he uses strikes to set up takedowns and tries to finish Swick on the ground, I think he could win. Based-on previous fights though, I think this fight will mostly be contested on the feet and Swick will take a decision. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Mike Swick.

Jack: Another largely uninspiring match-up that has little bearing on the shape of the division, and doesn't seem particularly exciting on paper. A part of me thinks we're about to see Swick - Hardy 2 here, only with Swick winning the stand-up. I think Thiago does enough to survive early, but in the second he gets caught cleanly by a winged punch, and is promptly put away. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Mike Swick.

Brad: Paulo Thiago looked like he absolutely didn't belong in the UFC in his debut (despite the KO), got smothered by Jon Fitch (which is nothing to be ashamed of), and then looked much improved standing against Jacob Volkmann (as well as getting the better of the ground exchanges). Swick is the same fighter he's always been at WW, and that's a good, but unspectacular one. I feel like Swick's striking and wrestling are both better than Thiago's, and he will use those tools to keep this fight on the feet for the duration. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Mike Swick.


The Final Forecast: Swick gets the judges' favor over Paulo "the UFC hates me" Thiago.


Dan Miller vs. Demian Maia

David: Not much to break down here for me... This fight has to end up on the ground at some point where Maia will likely squeeze Miller's head off of his neck. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Demian Maia.

Jamie: This fight will hit the ground, at some point, and Maia's BJJ will be too much, forcing a 2nd round submission. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Demian Maia.

Joshua: While I have never been a fan of Maia, I certainly recognize his BJJ skills which are amazing and, in my opinion, unmatched in the UFC. However, Miller is no newbie to the BJJ game and will certainly be aware of how dangerous Maia is on the ground. Although Dan is not a great striker, he will likely want to keep this on the feet as long as he can but Maia is great at attaching himself and dragging his opponent to the ground. Many times when you have two great black-belts fight each other you end up with a stalemate but I think Maia will have enough of an edge to eventually score a submission win. Winner via 3rd round Submission: Demian Maia.

Jack: People (although not the odds makers) seem to be pretty down on Maia since his quick KO at the hands of Nate Marquardt. I'm sticking by him in this fight, however, as I think he has the ability to take Miller to the mat, and have his way with him, as Maia often does. If Chael Sonnen can't keep the fight standing, I find it hard to believe that Miller will be able to avoid the ground for 15 full minutes. Maia will want to get this down early, and I see him getting the first round submission over Miller who, frankly, is outclassed if this fight hits the floor. Winner via 1st round Submission: Demian Maia.

Brad: There's a school of thought with some MMA fans that says guys at the same level of Jiu-Jitsu rarely get the better of each other on the ground. Maia will show that even though both he and Miller are theoretically at the same level (being blackbelts), in a practical sense, Maia is the far superior grappler. Winner via 1st round Submission: Demian Maia.


The Final Forecast: Maia successfully returns to his roots -- grappling, not kickboxing (if you didn't see his last fight).


Frank “Twinkle-Toes” Trigg vs. Matt “The Terror” Serra

David: Unlike a lot of folks at the FLD forum, I actually like Trigg. I find his arrogant commentary both pleasant and hilarious. But I don't see how in the world he beats Matt Serra at this point in his career. Serra is fast, heavy-handed, and isn't completely lost on the ground. I really think we see Frank Trigg writhing around on the canvas wondering where he is at some point in the 2nd. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Matt Serra.

Jamie: I believe Trigg is pretty much out-matched by Serra in this fight. Serra is heavy handed, has the better stand-up, and will have no problems on the ground with Trigg. I think Trigg's best bet will be to try and score takedowns to steal the rounds, but I think Serra stops him late in the second round. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Matt Serra.

Joshua: I really like both fighters and so this fight saddens me because the loser will likely be heading out of the UFC. However, I think it will be a great fight with Serra obviously having good power in his strikes and Trigg having the wrestling advantage. After being KO’d in his last bout, I doubt Twinkle Toes will want to spend much time messing around with the stand-up. He will likely shoot early and often trying to control Serra on the ground. While Serra does have good BJJ, it’s been close to nine years since he submitted someone inside the cage and I don’t think Trigg will have much to fear on the ground. I think Trigg will be able to control Serra for enough time to take a split decision. Winner via Split Decision: Frank Trigg.

Jack: Meh, this fight would have been a lot more fun in the past, but even now it has at least some potential to be exciting. Although Serra does not have the great offensive guard his glittering BJJ credentials imply he should have, I don't see Trigg taking this one down. Fought on the feet where Serra has the better chin, and more power, I see a fading Trigg being beaten up and released from the UFC shortly afterwards, an exit hastened somewhat by his inclusion in the upcoming EA MMA computer game. Serra hits hard and Trigg has often lacked heart in big fights, so I think Serra stops him late on. Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Matt Serra.

Brad: Frank Trigg is another mostly disliked fighter who seems to be getting less credit than he deserves in this fight. I still see him as the borderline top 10 MW and former WW contender that he was. Perhaps that's a mistake on my part, but his career losses are all to top fighters (Koscheck, Lawler, Condit, GSP, Hughes x2 and Sakurai). Despite being a former WW champion, Matt Serra has never shown me anything to think he's on par with that level of competition, as he's still the same fighter who almost got cut from the UFC (in two weightclasses), and regularly struggled with mid-level fighters. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Frank Trigg.


The Final Forecast: After an entertaining war of words, Matt Serra hands "Twinkle Toes" his UFC walking papers.



Preliminary Card


Mac Danzig vs. Justin Buchholz

David: Winner via 3rd round Submission: Mac Danzig.

Jamie: Winner via Split Decision: Mac Danzig.

Joshua: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Mac Danzig.

Jack: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Mac Danzig.

Brad: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Justin Buchholz.


The Final Forecast: Danzig rebounds from defeat with a submission win over the tough Buchholz.


Ronnys Torres vs. Melvin “The Young Assassin” Guillard

David: Winner via 1st round Submission: Ronnys Torres.

Jamie: Winner via 1st round Submission: Ronnys Torres.

Joshua: Winner via 1st round Submission: Ronnys Torres.

Jack: Winner via 1st round Submission: Ronnys Torres.

Brad: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Ronnys Torres.


The Final Forecast: Guillard taps, how many times have we witnessed that?


Rob “St. Legkicker” Emerson vs. Phillipe “The Filipino Assassin” Nover

David: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Rob Emerson (if Nover makes it to the cage)

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Rob Emerson.

Joshua: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Phillipe Nover.

Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Phillipe Nover.

Brad: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Rob Emerson.


The Final Forecast: The greatest pound-for-pound fighter in the universe, Rob Emerson, prevents Philippe Nover from securing his first octagon win.


Brian Stann vs. Phil “Mr. Wonderful” Davis

David: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Brian Stann.

Jamie: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Phil Davis.

Joshua: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Brian Stann.

Jack: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Phil Davis.

Brad: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Phil Davis.


The Final Forecast: "Mr. Wonderful" dishes out some corporal punishment.


Tim “The Thrashing Machine” Hague vs. Chris “Fat Alessio” Tuchscherer

David: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Tim Hague.

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Tim Hague.

Joshua: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Tim Hague.

Jack: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Tim Hague.

Brad: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Chris Tuchscherer.


The Final Forecast: Tim Hague puts the Duffee "hape" behind him by picking up his second UFC win.


Rolles Gracie vs. Joey “The Mexicutioner” Beltran

David: Winner via 1st round Submission: Rolles Gracie.

Jamie: Winner via 1st round Submission: Rolles Gracie.

Joshua: Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Joey Beltran.

Jack: Winner via 1st round Submission: Rolles Gracie.

Brad: Winner via 1st round Submission: Rolles Gracie.


The Final Forecast: Rolles becomes only the first Gracie to win inside the UFC since Royce last did in 1994.