Home
The FightLockdown Forecast - TUF10: Heavyweights Finale
Written by Miles Hackett   
Friday, 04 December 2009 20:13
Tomorrow night marks the conclusion of possibly the worst season of the Ultimate Fighter yet. Fortunately, however, we’re going to be offered a number of actually relevant match-ups as well, so we can’t complain entirely. The following FLD writing staff members will be providing you with your forecast tonight:

David Anthony
Brad Taschuk
Matt Bremner
Jamie Hughes
Miles Hackett

Check out what’s on their MMA-radars, after the jump!



Main Card



Jon “Bones” Jones vs. Matt “The Hammer” Hamill

David Anthony: It's difficult to count either of these guys out of any fight. They are both gamers with excellent wrestling, non-stop paces, and power. But someone has to lose. After watching tape on both of these guys to figure out who takes it, I think Jones has a tendency to get too wild in his fights. And against a guy like Hamill, he is flirting with disaster if he decides to go that route. But the question is: Will it overwhelm Hamill or be Jones’ undoing? I'm leaning towards Jones gaining his first loss here. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Matt Hamill.

Brad Taschuk: I can't say that I've ever been sold on Matt Hamill as a "good" 205er. He has power in his hands, he has wrestling, and he's very strong, but I've never seen everything come together from him. In this fight I think Hamill's downfall will be the fact that he is painfully slow, and Jones is one of the quickest guys in the division. I'm not sure that Jones will be able to stop Hamill and his incredibly hard head, but I think that he'll be able to outpoint him soundly for at least the first two rounds. Then cardio becomes a question for both guys. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jon Jones.

Matt Bremner: I like Matt Hamill, I have since watching him on TUF 3 and hoping he'd smash Bisping's face into a jelly. However, Hamill has shown trouble against guys are faster than him and are better strikers. The Martian Manhunter is both of those things (I refuse to call him “Bones”, “Martian Manhunter is a much more fitting title). Rich Franklin showed that Hamill's striking defense isn't anything special and he looks out of sorts when he can't bully or get guys to the floor. Jones is quick, strong and dangerous with all four limbs. I expect Jones' lethal combination of quickness, power and ability to quickly throw unorthodox strikes to tell the tale here. However, I wouldn't mind seeing Hamill dance around should he score a miraculous headkick KO. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Jon “The Martian Manhunter” Jones.

Jamie Hughes: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jon Jones.

Miles Hackett: I dig Matt Hamill’s development since TUF, but I think he’s in over his head this time out. Not only is Jon Jones a tremendously talented fighter, but he’s now being crafted by arguably the best coach in MMA, Greg Jackson. Hamill’s got power, but he’s slow and predictable compared to Jones, who might just be one of the most creative strikers in the game. I expect Hamill to test the stand-up for a bit, then go to his wrestling when he realizes he’s being picked apart. Unfortunately for him, Jones is no stranger to wrestling and will be aiming to punish Matt, especially when Hamill’s (numerous) weaknesses expose themselves (which usually occurs when he begins to fatigue, halfway through the second). Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Jon Jones.


The Final Forecast: Jon adds some more "bones" to his collection.


Brendan Schaub vs. Roy “Big Country” Nelson

David: For the first time in a while, the two favorites actually end up fighting each other for the TUF contract. Schaub is athletic, keeps his cool in bad spots, and holds a speed advantage over Nelson. But Roy is a slick fighter in his own right. He has a good ground game, is tough to knock out, and is very good at letting his opponents get comfortable before he exploits an opening. As we saw on the show and in many of Nelson's other fights, if he gets on top of you, it is very difficult to get him off without a ref standing it up. My concern for Schaub is that even though he is calm in bad spots, he also seems to have a penchant for letting himself get into them. If he does that with Roy, I think the veteran will be taking the victory by submission. Winner via 2nd round Submission: Roy Nelson.

Brad: Fights coming out of TUF are usually the toughest to call, simply because the fighters involved make more progress outside of the house in preparation for a single fight than inside the house where they need to fight a couple times a month. In this fight however we have a known commodity in Roy Nelson and a guy who has been on the radar for a while in Brendan Schaub. Schaub holds the length, speed, power and technique advantages on the feet, and Nelson does have a propensity to bang. Nelson holds an advantage on the ground, but Schaub is good defensively, and I don't see him getting crucifixed like Roy was able to do to the rest of the scrubs he faced on the show. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Brendan Schaub.

Matt: Here it is! The moment that absolutely none of us have been waiting for! (Unless you've been waiting for this painful season to end...). I've been wondering to myself if this season Nelson wasn't somewhat playing possum. The guy tore up the IFL like it was going out style, which it was, and then came to TUF and looked to be little more than average. It was really Roy's fight with, of all, people Kimbo Slice that had me worried. I thought Kimbo made Big Country look really uncomfortable on the feet and despite the fact that Kimbo has takedown defense to speak of, Roy still struggled to some degree. Schaub has won every fight he's had by knockout except against Demico Rogers, who he subbed quickly and effectively. Unless Nelson was trying to get people to underestimate him, I think he's in some trouble. Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Brendan Schaub.

Jamie: Winner via Split Decision: Brendan Schaub.

Miles: Most people thought Roy Nelson was a shoe-in for making it to the finals, and they were correct. The tougher question was always: “who will be standing across from him in the octagon?” Brendan Schaub, in my eyes, showed himself to be that opponent early on the show when he disposed of Demico Rogers. Schaub not only showed himself to be an explosive and powerful fighter, but also as an incredibly composed one when put in bad positions; something that cannot be said for James McSweeney. I don’t think Roy will be able to “Salaverry” his way to victory this time around, as Schaub will be able to keep the fight standing (by focusing mostly on throwing punches rather than kicks), and if he does find himself in trouble, I believe he has the natural attributes and skills to get himself out of it. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Brendan Schaub.


The Final Forecast: Schaub surprises "Big Country", and not with a breakfast sandwich.


Matt Veach vs. Frankie “The Answer” Edgar

David: I find this tough to call as well. Neither should be able to dominate the other with their wrestling (though I suppose Veach would have the more impressive credentials) and they both have shown well-roundedness in their careers. But this is a huge step-up in competition for Veach. I don't see him subbing or KOing Edgar, but I don't see Edgar finishing the fight either. I think Edgar's experience and tenacity will take this fight to Unanimous Decision in his favor. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Frankie Edgar.

Brad: This fight is pretty clear to me. Edgar has shown far more technical striking both offensively and defensively, and in an MMA context he's shown better wrestling as well. Veach will bring a significant size advantage, but Edgar is used to that with some of the monsters he's faced in the LW division already. I'm going to go out on a bit of a limb here, and say that Edgar manages to get a stoppage in this one. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Frankie Edgar.

Matt: When I first heard about this fight, I thought “easy win for Edgar, who is this guy?” Then I found out that Veach is a big, strong wrestler out of the Hughes camp, if you watched the Maynard fight, you know why this gives me pause. Frankie Edgar has been at the top of the lightweight division since he gutted out a win against highly touted and favoured Tyson Griffin. Unfortunately, Edgar has shown that big strong wrestlers can be trouble for him, voiced in his only loss against Gray Maynard. My gut is screaming “upset of the night!” but I just believe too fully that Edgar will be smarter this time and pull out a win. I expect him to use his wrestling in reverse and use his much improved striking to set up a takedown here and there, doing enough to earn him another notch. Winner via Unanimous Decision: Frankie Edgar.

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Frankie Edgar.

Miles: No idea what Joe Silva was thinking with this match-up, as Veach is nothing but a rewardless risk for Edgar. It’s incredibly hard to pick against Edgar, especially coming off that impressive dismantling of Sean Sherk where he showed improved footwork, combinations, and more aggressive BJJ. Veach didn’t look good by any means in his UFC debut, winning in controversial fashion over Matt Grice. I think if Edgar keeps the fight standing, he’ll be able to pick Veach apart and knock him out midway through the fight. Veach has poor striking form, but has decent power (which is more than can be said for Matt Hughes, his mentor). Unless Edgar fights unintelligently, I cannot see him losing to such an untested opponent. Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Frankie Edgar.


The Final Forecast: Frankie "answers" any of the remaining questions we had about Matt Veach.


Houston “The Assassin” Alexander vs. Kevin “Kimbo Slice” Ferguson

David: I personally think Kimbo is being overrated as much as Houston is being underrated coming into this fight, when talking to friends. Houston has only had trouble with people with a ground game and James Irvin's superman punch. Kimbo has neither in his arsenal. Training at ATT may have completely changed Mr. Ferguson, but all I have to go on is what I've seen of him in the past. I won't doubt Kimbo's power here, but he is far from what I would describe as "explosive". He's a big slow guy that has only had success against other big slow guys. I also understand that this fight will be at a catchweight of 215 pounds, so this will be the first time he has ever had to cut weight for a fight. The guy is not a cardio machine to begin with, so I expect that to take its toll as well. Houston is faster, more explosive, more experienced and hits just as hard (if not harder) than Kimbo. I would love to be wrong, because something about Alexander's cage demeanor rubs me the wrong way, but I see Kimbo being on the wrong side of a (T)KO on Saturday night. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Houston Alexander.

Brad: Alright, so the first round TKO part is easy in this fight. Both guys have heavy hands (although some may dispute the heaviness of Ferguson's hands), but more importantly, neither can really take a punch. From what I've heard, Ferguson has had some problems with his first ever weight cut, although I don't see that being a big factor in this one, since neither guy has any cardio to speak off. Man, this fight is really meaningless aside from the ratings it will grab. In the end, I think Ferguson is more of an outside fighter while Alexander prefers to close the distance. My logic tells me that this gives Ferguson an opportunity to land first, so I'll go with him... but I'm not remotely confident about it. Winner via 1st round KO: Kevin Ferguson.

Matt: I haven't read anyone else's predictions but by the time you read this, I'm guessing you'll already have read “first round TKO, but by who?” like three times, so I'll skip that. Houston Alexander is not a fast man, not at all. However, he is likely faster than Kimbo, suffering from a bad weight cut in a division I don't think he belongs in. Alexander's M.O. is to rush and and Kimbo could catch him on the way in, but I just think the speed difference will pay dividends, with Kimbo going down in the first and setting up a last ditch effort fight with Seth Petruzelli. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Houston Alexander.

Jamie: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Houston Alexander.

Miles: I don’t like how Kimbo’s been talking about his weight-cutting preparation leading up to this fight, that said, I don’t think we’re going to have to worry about cardio in this fight as it will not go the distance. A tough fight to call because it depends on whether Houston can get to his sweet-spot (the clinch), or whether Kimbo can land on Alexander as he attempts to close the distance. Despite both guys having questionable chins, I think Houston’s MMA experience and discovery of leg kicks will benefit him. That and the fact he doesn’t have to worry about a takedown in this fight. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Houston Alexander.


The Final Forecast: Kimbo Slice shares the same fate as JFK; he'll be assassinated in front of millions watching at home.


Marcus "the Darkness" Jones vs. Matt Mitrione

David: This is one of the hardest fights for me to pick on this card. Both of these guys are strong where the other is weak. Although Marcus has heavy hands, his stand-up looked pretty bad on the show. He's stiff and doesn't like to get hit, but his BJJ looked decent. Mitrione is far from a K-1 level striker, but I think he trumps Marcus' technique standing. Though judging from him putting his head right into McSweeney the kickboxer’s guillotine, I think it's safe to say his ground game may be lacking. No matter who takes it, I don't foresee a drawn out war from these two. For better or for worse, all of Jones' professional fights have ended in the first round. I think he will be able to weather Mitrione's storm of sloppy punches, drag him to the ground, and generally have his way with him from there. Winner via 1st round (T)KO: Marcus Jones.

Brad: Mitrione can hit. Hard. Marcus Jones doesn't like to get hit. Unfortunately, I see this fight going to the ground before Mitrione has a chance to connect, which means that unless he's done some serious work since the show was filmed (which he doesn't strike me as the type to do), we get to see his atrocious ground game again. Jones has a solid ground game for a HW, so he should be able to coax a stoppage rather swiftly. Winner via 1st round Submission: Marcus Jones.

Matt: Unless Marcus Jones has a death wish or is simply a moron, this should be a quick fight. He'll use his strength to get it to the floor early, beat Mitrione up and then sub him with prejudice, and that'll be that. Sure, Mitrione could catch him and Jones isn't great on the feet, but I just don't see it. Winner via 1st round Submission: Marcus Jones.

Jamie: Winner via 3rd round (T)KO: Marcus Jones.

Miles: Like the others have indicated, this is a touch fight to call because the two fighters in question are the complete opposite when analyzing their strengths and weaknesses. “Big Baby” strikes and moves like a giant mummy that’s arisen from a 1000 year slumber, but he grapples like a Gracie-trained Silverback Gorilla. Conversely, Mitrione has big power and a good chin, but he taps as quickly as Art Jimmerson. The difference in this fight, to me, is the wrestling and I think Marcus showed on the show that he can get anyone he wants down, whenever he wants. Mitrione’s wrestling may have improved since the show, but if I just look at the fight with McSweeney, I have to be skeptical, as his takedown defense was far from savoury. Look for Jones to get the fight down to the ground quickly, where his size and technique will work to his advantage, earning him a tap. Winner via 1st round Submission: Marcus Jones.


The Final Forecast: Jones redeems his crushing loss in the semifinals by making another "meat-head" tap.



Preliminary Card


Dennis "Superman" Hallman vs. John "Doomsday" Howard

David: Winner via Unanimous Decision: John Howard.

Brad: Winner via Unanimous Decision: John Howard - Why is Dennis Hallman even back in the UFC?

Matt: Winner via Unanimous Decision: John Howard.

Jamie: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: John Howard.

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: John Howard.


The Final Forecast: "Doomsday" whomps on "Superman", again.


James McSweeney vs. Darrill "Titties" Schoonover

David: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Darrill Schoonover.

Brad: Winner via 1st round Submission: Darrill Schoonover.

Matt: Winner via 1st round Submission: Darrill Schoonover.

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: James McSweeney.

Miles: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Darrill Schoonover.


The Final Forecast: Schoonover forces McSweeney to tap, anyone who actually watched this season rejoices.


Brian Stann vs. Rodney Wallace

David: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Rodney Wallace.

Brad: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Rodney Wallace.

Matt: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Rodney Wallace.

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Brian Stann.

Miles: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Rodney Wallace.


The Final Forecast: Wallace successfully debuts in the UFC, making Brian "Machida" Stann 1-2 inside the octagon.


Joe Brammer vs. Mark "Ginger-snaps" Bocek

David: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Mark Bocek.

Brad: Winner via 1st round Submission: Mark Bocek.

Matt: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Mark Bocek.

Jamie: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Mark Bocek.

Miles: Winner via 2nd round Submission: Mark Bocek.


The Final Forecast: Mark Bocek owns Brammer on the ground, Rogan goes on and on about him being the first Canadian BJJ Black-Belt, I grab a beer from the fridge/take a leak.


Jon Madsen vs. Justin "The Viking" Wren

David: Winner via 2nd round (T)KO: Justin Wren.

Brad: Winner via 1st round TKO: Justin Wren.

Matt: Winner via 1st round TKO: Justin Wren.

Jamie: Winner via Split Decision: Justin Wren.

Miles: Winner via Unanimous Decision: Jon Madsen.


The Final Forecast: Wren stops Madsen, Travis Lutter weeps a tear of joy.