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What does Shogun need to do to slay the Dragon?
Written by Jack Barrington   
Monday, 19 October 2009 20:20
Prior to Mauricio “Shogun” Rua’s last UFC bout, I wrote about the improvements he needed to make in order to be successful in the UFC. Fans had been critical of his lack of conditioning, evident in his first two UFC fights, and Shogun as a fighter had seemed entirely antithetical to the “non-stop, cardio for days, superstar” that the UFC had been heavily promoting from PRIDE.

I remained only moderately concerned with his physical shape, which could be explained rather easily by the two serious knee injuries he suffered, shortly before his recent underwhelming performances. Instead, I was worried by far uglier, underlying holes in the Brazilian’s game, such as his lack of head movement and basic boxing skills which drifted to the surface with the disappearance of his relentless pace.

Rua's performance against Chuck Liddell somewhat allayed those fears. The Brazilian's head movement not only seemed to exist, but it was extremely effective as well, despite the fact he was exercising it against a fighter whose skills had clearly diminished. Additionally, his footwork was better, as he did not shy from stepping out of range when Liddell attacked, always making sure to keep his hands up, while picking his shots with a measured aggression we had only seen in glimpses of in his previous performances. Shogun calmly walked Liddell down, with almost the assertive nature of a younger Mirko “CroCop” Filipovic. Yes, clearly he does not possess the sharp refined kickboxing skills of the Croatian, but the message was clear; what we witnessed was a more mature Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, methodically dismantling a fighter that most knowledgeable MMA fans had clearly identified as a bad match-up for him. He had clearly studied Liddell’s previous losses, and made good use of his dangerous kicking game, and well timed punches, on his way to a dominant first round stoppage.

However, let us not be carried away, my fellow Shogun fans. While Chuck was evidently a bad stylistic matchup for Shogun, Lyoto Machida could be considered a stylistic nightmare. Add to that the fact that whilst Chuck was very much on the downward slope of an accomplished career, Machida has been improving and gaining more confidence as he enters his prime, which could prove a troublesome task for Shogun this upcoming Saturday.

While being significantly behind Chuck in terms of raw power, Machida possesses footwork and accuracy that Liddell could only dream of, as "The Dragon" has systematically dismantled every one of his opponents in the UFC so far. With each performance seeming more impressive than the one that preceded it, a perfect 15-0 record, and a puzzling skill-set, Machida could prove to be Shogun’s toughest opponent to date.

That unbeaten record itself makes this article, not to mention Shogun’s task at hand, a tricky proposition. How do you find a way to beat a previously unbeaten opponent whose faults have been few and far between in all of his performances? How do you capitalize on those errors when he probably sees them first, and constantly makes improvements from fight to fight? These are very challenging questions, and instead of trying to nitpick at Machida’s fighting style and exploitable tendencies, I will look instead, to Shogun’s strengths and find a manner in which he can apply them in order to get past his opponent's unique fighting style and obvious skills as a martial artist.

The first aspect of Shogun’s game I want to concentrate on, is his top game. Shogun has an innate ability to inflict damage, and indeed finish fights, from top position that is unlike almost any other fighter at 205lbs. His black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu serves mainly to keep him out of trouble and safe from attempted sweeps and submissions from the bottom, and although he does look to improve position he rarely gets caught being greedy. Shogun is confident is his proven ability to do damage from guard, half guard and side control, and rightfully so. His natural aggression translates perfectly to his style of ground-and-pound, just look no further than his knockout victory over Alistair Overeem at PRIDE 33, and you will see how dangerous he can be from the top without stomps and soccer kicks at his disposal. Often appearing reckless, which may make fans apprehensive towards picking him in this fight against another BJJ blackbelt in Machida, he proved against Antônio Rogério Nogueira that he can deal out damage by taking risks while simultaneously steering clear of trouble. Yes, Machida is a proficient grappler himself, but so are Overeem, Nogueira, and even Ricardo Arona, yet Shogun has laid them all to waste. He has wins over more proven grapplers than Machida, which should lend credence to my confidence in him having the advantage, if and when this fight hits the mat.


Upon hearing me summarize Shogun’s perceived advantage on the ground, I am sure those of you agreeing with the odds-makers and confidently picking Machida in this fight, are likely brandishing smug smiles while putting together your own retorts of how "it won’t matter who has the upper hand on the ground," as such a feared and precise striker as Machida will surely dispose of the wild untamed former Chute Boxe fighter on the feet. That may well be the case, as Machida’s lightning reflexes and innate ability to hit without being hit may prove too much for Shogun, and you could easily cite Lyoto’s recent destructions of not only Thiago Silva, but also Rashad Evans to support your position. You could, but I would advise against it, seeing as Shogun’s style of striking, natural physical talents, and new found patience make him a more dangerous opponent on the feet than either of the two aforementioned athletes.

Even though Thiago Silva is himself a former Chute Boxe fighter and fights with an aggressive nature not dissimilar to Shogun’s, he lacks most obviously the chin to incorporate this style as successfully as his former teammate. As an old boxing enthusiast may exclaim, Shogun has “a proven beard” and an impressive ability to shrug off hard shots that Thiago has never come close to duplicating. I find it hard to believe that Machida will either drop, or put away this Chute Boxe product, as easily he did the last one. In fact, I seriously doubt whether he will do it at all.

As far as his performance over Rashad Evans goes, even though it was scarily impressive to see how much better the challenger was than the champion, I do not feel that fight makes the most apt of comparisons, when breaking down this one. Yes, Rashad has power. Yes, he has blistering hand speed, and yes, he has a clear ability to end fights with one vicious counter, but he is a completely different striker to Shogun and does not possess the well-roundedness, natural aggression, or the ability to absorb a shot as Rua does while still coming forward. It was Rashad trying to be aggressive that lost him his title, yes, but I urge you not to be over-eager in comparing a naturally aggressive fighter with a diverse standing arsenal like Shogun, with a punch heavy counter-striker overconfidently and uncomfortably coming forward like Rashad.

Having said that, I do think it is possible that Shogun could win this fight standing, seeing as he has obvious power, but to be frank, Machida will not be caught with a left like the one that finished a declining Chuck Liddell. What Shogun can do, is survive and pressure Machida enough to open the possibility of a clinch. Shogun needs to use intelligent aggression, by walking his opponent down and trying to master the seemingly impossible task of cutting off angles in the inexplicably vast octagon of the UFC. His head movement will need to be even better than in the Liddell fight, and even with his ability to take a shot, he cannot allow himself to get caught coming in like Machida’s previous opponents. He can use his kicks to wear out Lyoto, and even set-up the possibility for a big right hand, but his mind must be set on getting in close quarters and clinching with "The Dragon".

Ah yes, the clinch. An often overlooked aspect of MMA, widely due to several depressing clinchfests that the octagon fences have treated us to over the years. However, there is a big difference between an active clinch like Shogun’s and a TUF contestant leaning on his opponent’s chest. Clearly every MMA fan will know of just how effective Shogun’s clinch game can be, his unreserved destruction of Quinton Jackson during the PRIDE 2005 Middleweight Grand Prix is one of MMA’s finest moments and a must see for any fan of the sport -- a true precursor to Anderson Silva's first demolition of Rich Franklin, if you will. Much like the rest of his repertoire, Shogun’s clinch game isn’t designed to score points and win rounds via the mystical notion of “Octagon Control”, no, he sets out to damage and destroy all in his wake with a rancorous onslaught of knees. This area has also proven to be a question mark for Machida in the past. Even though Lyoto has displayed an impressive variety of trips from the clinch, his tendency to be caught with big shots while there (see the Nakamura fight for reference) will surely lead him to do anything he can to avoid being stuck in this position with Shogun.

Not only does the clinch afford Shogun the chance to damage and potentially finish Machida, but it also bridges that elusive gap between my two previous points, it allows Shogun to move quickly from surviving standing to attacking on the ground. Despite Machida's ability to use his outstanding footwork, and remarkable ability to shift his hips, in order to avoid and fend off regular wrestling shots, it will be interesting to see how he copes with a tested and proven trademark inside leg trip takedown from the clinch (especially when Sokoudjou and Nakamura met success with that very technique). Some of you may shrug off Shogun’s wrestling technique as "sloppy", but it has proven to be notably effective -- anyone who has watched a significant amount of tape on him will know that when he has wanted to get his opponents down to the ground, he has usually succeeded.

Whether this fight is on the feet, on the mat, or in the clinch, Shogun’s keys to victory remain the same. He needs to use his natural aggression and all round toughness as a fighter to bully his fellow Brazilian. He will likely be the stronger man and will need to use it to overcome Machida’s adroit nature and deft footwork. Knowing when to use his aggressiveness, and when to tame it, will be key to Shogun triumphing here. Can Rua’s boldness and aptitude as a fighter overcome Machida’s grace and technical proficiency as a martial artist? Only the fight itself will answer that question, but I have a feeling that the showdown between "Shogun" and "The Dragon" will end up as exciting and eventful as the arguments from both loyal sets of fans leading up to it.

They are possibly the two most talented fighters at 205lbs in the world today, and whoever comes out on top will surely have earned the title of the world’s greatest light-heavyweight.