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 The week leading up to every UFC event, the staff at your beloved Fightlockdown.com will offer you breakdowns of the most equitable bets on the forthcoming card. While we feel that all the fights we’ve selected are profitable bets, the ones that we feel are money in the bank shall be referred to as “Lockdowns.” So without further adieu, ladies and gentlemen, Fightlockdown Presents… UFC 97: Redemption.
Eliot Marshall vs. Vinicius “Pezao” Magalhaes
Alright, so the first fight of UFC 97 that we believe to be an equitable bet, is Eliot Marshall vs. Vinicius Magalhaes. Both guys are graduates of TUF season 8 under the tutelage of current the UFC’s interim HW champion Frank Mir, and both have exceptional grappling credentials. We believe that while Vinny has a slight advantage on the ground, Eliot holds a significant advantage on the feet and that if the fight should go to the ground, Eliot is competent enough to successfully defend against Vinny’s submission attempts.
Winner: Eliot Marshall
Why?
1) He’s the better striker and a generally more complete and experienced fighter.
2) He is an accomplished grappler in his own right, so he should not be too surprised by what Magalhaes has to offer on the ground. When taking into account this isn't gi-grappling and the likelihood that Vinny will be on the bottom, we don't see Vinny submitting Eliot often enough to make that bet equitable.
Jason “The Athlete” MacDonald vs. Nate “Rock” Quarry
The second match on the card that we feel to be an equitable bet is Jason MacDonald vs. Nate Quarry. This match stylistically is the ground fighter vs. the stand-up fighter, and the deciding factor will be the wrestling. The question then, is can Quarry keep the fight standing and can MacDonald get it to the ground? And the verdict is…
Winner: Nate Quarry
Why?
1) MacDonald's struggled against fighters that excel at sprawling and brawling, and Quarry holds an advantage in the wrestling department.
2) Every fight starts on the feet and Nate Quarry has a decisive edge in that element of the fight, with some nasty stopping power.
NOTE: While we are picking Quarry as a smart bet, we suggest that you only do so if you can find odds -110 or better for him.
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Brian Stann vs Krzysztof “The Polish Experiment” Soszynski - LOCKDOWN
The next fight that we feel confident betting-on is between the former WEC LHW champion Brian Stann and TUF8 veteran Krzysztof Soszynski. For this fight, we advise you to go with “The Polish Experiment.” Why?
1) He holds a decisive advantage on the ground and he's been winning most of his recent fights via submission
2) Stann hasn't fought since August 2008 and he will be making his UFC debut against a TUF-grown fighter with ample experience.
3) Stann has only been out of round one once, his cardio wasn’t very good, and he consequently lost that bout.
According to our calculations, Soszynski only needs to win 60% of the time to make this an equity bet at -150, but we feel as though he wins the fight 75% of the time based-on stylistic advantages he holds.
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Chuck “The Iceman” Liddell - LOCKDOWN
The fight on the card that has most people excited, just happens to be one of the easiest to pick on the card. While there are a lot of questions surrounding both fighters’ futures, we believe that Chuck Liddell will walk away the victor, for the following reasons:
1) Shogun's defensive skills are worse than Chuck's.
Although the Shogun of old exercised an offensive torrent in order to put his opponents on the defensive, his style has always left him open to taking unnecessary damage. Even in the Coleman fight where he had allegedly been “training harder than ever” he showed poor technique throughout most of the fight, having even the geriatric Hall of Famer landing numerous punches to his grill. Chuck may have been dropped in his last few fights due to poor defense, but bringing in Howard Davis Jr. to help him specifically with that part of his game is a sure sign that Chuck will not risk being sloppy, even against the less technical Shogun.
2) Shogun's wrestling abilities are not good enough to take Chuck down and keep him there.
Not only is it difficult to take Chuck down—unless you’re Randy Couture—it’s proven to be even more of a test to keep him there. While Shogun has a decisive edge on the ground with his submissions, his wrestling has never been his strength, and we feel that Chuck should be able to sprawl and brawl without having to deal with Shogun on the mat.
3) Chuck's counter-striking style will always make him a favourite against the aggressive Chute Boxe style.
Shogun has proven in the past to be a very wild and exciting fighter to watch, but his punches have always been pretty loopy, and that’s not the best technical trait when fighting a counter-puncher with knockout power who throws everything down the middle. Wanderlei Silva showed great heart at UFC 79: Nemesis against Chuck, but it was Chuck’s style that won out, namely because he landed his shots first. We think Shogun will experience the same frustration that his Chute Boxe did.
4) Chuck's working with Hackleman and ATT, whereas Shogun's working with a completely new and untested camp—with the exception of Demian Maia.
Probably one of the largest questions entering this fight for Shogun and Chuck is “what are they working on the most?” and “who with?” With regard to camps we have to give an advantage to Liddell again because he’s sticking with Hackleman while working with guys from American Top Team (such as the head boxing trainer Howard Davis Jr.) who will surely help him to improve. Shogun on the other hand has moved to a completely new camp in Sao Paolo, one that is relatively untested in MMA. While it’s clear that both fighters needed to change-up their training regiments, we know more about Chuck’s camp than Shogun’s, with Demian Maia being his only recognizably elite level training partner.
5) Shogun does not fit the profile of a fighter that gives Chuck problems standing.
With all due respect to Shogun, he is not the archetypal stand-up fighter that has shown Chuck problems in the past. Yes, Rua has nice leg kicks and power in his hands, and a devastating Thai clinch, but the guys who have beaten Chuck have had excellent defense, tight boxing, impressive head movement, good footwork, and most importantly, patience. As previously noted, Shogun’s style is a frenzied attack, not calculated one like Rashad Evans’ or Rampage Jackson’s, and unfortunately for him, that plays right into Chuck’s usual game plan.
Statistically Chuck needs to win only 65% of the time to make this a positive equity bet at -190, however, we feel he wins much more than that at about 75 – 80%.
That’s it for this edition of the LOCKDOWN, enjoy the fights this weekend, they should be fantastic!
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