The undercard of a UFC event can be fantastic place for finding great odds. The gambling world doesn’t have a great amount of MMA knowledge yet, especially when it comes to lesser known fighters, so every once in a while there are match-ups were the odds are designated in strange ways. UFC 97 has one of these anomalies with Matt Wiman as a +120 underdog to Sam Stout. Sam Stout (2-4 in the UFC) who has always been an underachiever has dropped 2 in a row and 4 out of 5 in the UFC, yet he is favored over “Handsome” Matt Wiman (4-2 in the UFC) who was on a 4 fight win streak in the UFC before losing to Jim Miller. Obviously the records don’t tell the whole story so let’s look at how they match up.

Sam Stout’s biggest strengths lie in his kickboxing and takedown defense, and consequently his strategy entering every fight is usually built around sprawling and brawling. However even with those being his strengths he has lost to both Spencer Fisher (7-3 in the UFC) and Terry Etim (3-2 in the UFC) in fights that were standing almost the whole time. When his opponents can get him to the ground Sam is really weak, as Kenny Florian (9-2 in the UFC) submitted him quickly in round 1 and Rich Clementi (5-5 in the UFC) mounted him twice in the first round of their fight. The standard Stout performance can be seen in his win over Per Eklund (1-2 in the UFC) in the form of avoiding the ground game as much as possible and scoring points standing. Even then, he’s not a finisher with all of his wins inside the octagon coming via decision.

Matt Wiman, on the other hand, is a textbook Mixed Martial Artist; a good grappler with solid striking and wrestling. “Handsome” Matt has shown his grappling in every one of his fights in the UFC, but especially against Thiago Tavares—one of the best grapplers in the UFC’s LW division—as he more than held his own on the ground, showing an active guard and great work on the top. Although his stand up isn’t as good as Stout’s, he should be able to avoid getting knocked out since Stout hasn’t shown much power in the UFC and Wiman has shown a good chin. Contrarily Matt has some real punching power that was also showed off in that Tavares fight when he left Thiago out cold. As far as wrestling goes Wiman, despite not possessing the wrestling pedigree of a Gray Maynard—manages to find ways to get his opponents to the ground. In his 6 UFC fights he has put every one of his opponents on their backs at least once, including Spencer Fisher and Jim Miller (2-1 in the UFC).  Matt has shown a wide array of skills virtually everywhere the fight goes, and that’s bad news for Stout.

Both fighters will have relatively easy game plans to predict coming into this fight. Stout will want to keep it on the feet and strike, while Wiman will want to get it to the ground. Standing Sam is the more technical fighter; however, he has been beaten standing in MMA by guys who aren’t as technical before, such as Spencer Fisher—who decisively beat Stout in their rematch by being a more effective MMA striker. When it comes to wrestling Wiman isn’t always the prettiest fighter to watch, however, he is very effective and will have a big advantage on top or off his back. Stout has good takedown defense, but over the course of a whole fight he usually ends up on the ground at some point or another, as Per Eklund got him down numerous times and his wrestling skills are not as good as Matt’s. Basically, Stout will be in huge trouble if he can’t keep this standing the entire fight.

When looking at this fight in terms of betting the key is that Matt is a +120 underdog where he probably should be a slight favorite. Before he fought Jim Miller he was a guy a lot of people thought had a really bright future at LW and having lost to Miller is nothing to be ashamed of. Both of these guys have their ways to win, however, Sam is almost playing against the clock in his fights, as he is trying desperately to avoid the ground all fight long and score points while the rounds pass. Conversely, Wiman will be applying pressure from the moment the bell rings, looking for the finish, and by getting takedowns he will earn a lot of credit should the fight go to a decision. In fact, Stout beat Clementi standing in round 3 of their fight and all Rich did was get 2 takedowns yet he still managed to win the decision because he was pushing forward and gotthe fight to the ground whenever he wanted. This is a fight where Stout will be constantly on the defense, trying to keep it off the ground and Matt will more than likely be the aggressor which bodes well for him on the scorecards. Ultimately, Wiman has the stylistic advantage in this fight with more ways of scoring points and subsequently more ways to finish, which is why I would advise you throw some cash on “Handsome” in what should be an entertaining fight, nonetheless.

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