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UFC 98: "Sugar" Rashad Evans vs. Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida
Written by Ken Mace   
Monday, 18 May 2009 18:39
Who will reign supreme on Saturday?
 
With less than a week remaining until UFC 98, live from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, it only seems fitting to breakdown the headlining fight. The main event being the battle of unbeatens, the champion "Sugar" Rashad Evans (18-0-1) will be challenged by Lyoto "The Dragon" Machida (14-0-0). This is the first time in recent memory that two fighters carrying unbeaten records meet inside the octagon for a title fight. However things unfold in this bout, one thing is certain; one man will exit walk away with the first blemish on his record, while the other will leave the light-heavyweight champion.

Let’s start with Machida’s rise to contention. “The Dragon” carries an impressive record into this fight, including a six fight win streak in the UFC's octagon, marked by victories over Sam Hoger, David Heath, Kazuhiro Nakamura, and Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou. However, all of those fights except the latter ended in unanimous decision victories, with the Sokoudjou fight being his first finish inside the octagon—in the form of an arm-triangle choke at the end of round two. Following that fight, Lyoto scored his biggest victory inside the UFC with a dominant unanimous decision over Tito Ortiz at UFC 84. After taking a lot of heat from critics about his inability to finish fights, Lyoto scored an exciting knockout victory over undefeated Thiago Silva, which propelled him into the role of #1 contender.
 
Now, introducing the champion, "Sugar" Rashad Evans. The current reigning and defending LHW king sports eight wins and one draw inside the octagon for the UFC. His eight wins include decision victories over Sam Hoger, Stephan Bonnar, and Michael Bisping, but his list of finishes may actually be more impressive, having taken the names of Jason Lambert, Chuck Liddell, and most recently Forrest Griffin, where Rashad was crowned champion via brutal ground and pound. With a breadth of experience and the ability to both go the distance and finish fights, the champion is certainly a threat. But does he have what it takes to solve the enigmatic puzzle that Machida brings to the table?
  
To kick things off, I think that the early rounds of this fight will take place on the feet, with both fighters taking their time to figure out each other’s rhythms, and really, whoever controls the stand-up could determine the winner on the judges’ scorecards. But who is the favorite in this aspect of the game? Lyoto Machida uses his vast knowledge in karate to move in, out, and away in a style that hasn't been solved by an opponent yet, statistically making him the hardest fighter to hit in the UFC. This is evident in the Ortiz fight especially, as Machida used his fluid lateral movements to avoid clinching or trading blows, but when the opportunity arose, he darted in with jabs or kicks, and just as quickly as he began his attack, he managed to exit the pocket, avoiding Ortiz’s returned strikes. Rashad on the other hand has developed into an impressive counter striker in his own right, with big power and lightning quick reflexes. The Chuck Liddell fight is the best example of how Rashad’s hands have improved over his UFC career, and a testament to how quickly he can end a fight that he isn’t leading on the scorecards.
 
The ground game will probably only come into play if one of these fighters is falling behind on points and decides to use takedowns in an attempt to change the direction of the fight. Rashad has a very good ground game, and has shown the ability to inflict damage from the guard, as proven in the Griffin fight. Not only has Rashad shown good takedowns throughout his career, but he’s also exercised equally good takedown defense, which has made him hard to get on his back. On the other hand, Lyoto likes to use trips and throws when taking opponents down, and has proven that he can finish a fight from the ground via submission (Sokoudjou) or knockout (Silva). But with one fighter being a counter striker and the other an elusive in-and-out striker, the ground game will probably be instigated to determine a winner in the later rounds.

The fight itself should be a very entertaining. Both warriors have shown that they can end a fight quickly, however, Evans is more known for that (based-on UFC careers exclusively). I certainly see both fighters feeling each other out for the first round. Rashad probably won't chase Machida, and Lyoto will probably try to work his usual gameplan of working in-and-out throwing kicks and jabs. I could actually see one of these two actually going for a takedown or a trip towards the end of the round just to score vital points, securing the round. 

The second round will probably be more exciting as the exchanges should be more frequent with both fighters being more comfortable with their range and timing, but round three should be the best round of the fight, as I think it will be the round where a finish is most likely to take place. Both Evans and Machida will want to take control of the third round because it’s really the beginning of the fight's home-stretch. I believe that this added pressure to take the lead of the fight could leave one of these men open to being knocked out. Mainly Rashad catching Machida with a left hook or an overhand right, or Machida possibly catching Evans with a knee similar to the one he landed in the Ortiz fight. However, if the fighters split the first two rounds, the third round could end-up being the deciding round should the fight go the distance.


 
On the other hand, if the fight makes it to the fourth round, someone is going to be ahead on the score cards, and will want to seal the deal with one more round. The key for the man trailing on the scorecards will lie in their ability to adapt and change their gameplan towards takedowns, with a desire to finish on the ground. Endurance at this point should really start to show, and in my opinion, Evans has the slightly larger gas tank. I don't see Machida gassing, but he will certainly have slowed down by round four with his style of constantly moving in, out, and side to side. Round five could potentially house a fantastic finish, as the trailing fighter will surely go all out to prevent a judges’ decision. If the fight goes five rounds it will probably favor the more athletic fighter, Rashad Evans. However, if he falls behind the score cards early, Machida can lock-up a decision in the fifth with his elusiveness that has yet to be solved by previous challengers.
 
The outcome I see forthcoming will either be Rashad Evans winning via T/KO in the 3rd or 5th round. If Machida takes the gold from Rashad’s waist, I believe it will be through a tactically fought unanimous/split decision victory, after scoring early on the judges cards and fighting conservatively in the later rounds, forcing Rashad to chase him.

But sitting on the fence does not help anyone, so leaving UFC 98, I expect that we'll see Rashad Evans emerging victorious and going on to defend his title in a highly hyped fight against Quinton "Rampage" Jackson (30-7) with Lyoto Machida going on to a high profile match-up against the reborn Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (18-3). Regardless of who comes out on top this Saturday, a lot shall be learned about both fighters, so expect an exciting war!


Verdict: Rashad Evans via T/KO, 3rd or 5th round.