Jackson wins inside distance +422

[bail3yz]

Tempted to bet on this.. along with all my other bets..

there are really only 2 outcomes to this fight

Machida via dec
or Rampage via KO

if Machida finished Rampage.. that would be a serious bad beat..

I suppose rampage could win by decision too.. altho very unlikely..

I bet a ton on the fight to go decision.. so it still covers that anyways..

I bet on machida to win by decision..

now I could bet on this.. and profit in every scenario.. except Machida winning via finish..

debating whether its worth lowering the profit on the decision outcomes tho

What % o fthe time do you guys think Rampage wins by finish?

[DaProdigy]

I have a feeling that there is going to be fireworks in this fight. I think Machida will back his speed and Rampage will look to land his big hooks. Also Dana's comments regarding Marquardt's loss will be ringing in both fighters ears.
I would have Machida as a favourite but Rampage is definitely capable of causing the upset. My percentages would probably look like this:
Machida via Dec - 45%
Machida via Stoppage - 20%
Rampage via Dec - 15%
Rampage via Stoppage - 20%

[Mervin]

You guys know that Machida could submit Rampage too right, lol? All the breakdowns I read it's either Machida by decision or (T)KO, or Rampage by (T)KO, but very few people if anyone mentioned a submission victory for Machida. I actually think Machida's gameplan will be to take Rampage down and try to submit him, I'm just not that confident he could, but it's definitely an option. Machida has more chances or submitting Rampage than (T)KO'ing him IMO.

[vikingpride]

I think mine would be closer to

Machida Decision 55%
Machida Stoppage 10%
Rampage Decision 10%
Rampage Stoppage 25%

Edit: I really, really doubt Machida subs Rampage. Page has been subbed once in his career and that was to Saku when Saku was subbing everyone. And it was Rampage's 12th fight and it was a dramatic step up in comp.

Rampage isn't a BJJ whiz or anything, but his ground defense is good. And that includes taking minimal damage and staying out of subs.

And then you have Machida who's only subbed two guys in his career one of them was Sokky, and the other was a kick boxer.

[Mervin]

Lmao at you guys' % breakdowns. I think the recent K-1 and boxing events messed you up :smoke:.

[bail3yz]

Machida subbing Rampage is such a low % imo that its not even worth considering

[Mervin]

Lower than him (T)KO'ing him? I really disagree.

[bail3yz]

my %s are probably like this

Machida 65% decision
Machida 5% finish
Rampage 20% finish
Rampage 10% decision

[DaProdigy]

My stoppage percentages include subs. I would probably adjust my percentages to:
Machida via Dec - 55%
Machida via Stoppage - 10%
Rampage via Dec - 15%
Rampage vis Stoppage - 20%

[vikingpride]

My stoppage percentages include subs. I would probably adjust my percentages to:
Machida via Dec - 55%
Machida via Stoppage - 10%
Rampage via Dec - 15%
Rampage vis Stoppage - 20%

Closer to mine, so i approve. haha

:smoke:

And if you want to give the Machida sub stoppage a % i'd say about 2%. And 2% is pretty much the bottom line i put on every outcome (Not inlcuding draws, and DQ's, power failures, etc) lol

So like Bail said, it's so low it's not really worth considering.

[Mervin]

My bad DP, I misread yours. But yeah, when I read Machida has as low as a 2% chance of submitting Rampage, I really think this possibility is being overlooked. I'd put it around 10% personally, 5-10% for a (T)KO, 55-60% decision. Keep in mind there's a strong possibility Machida's gameplan will revolve around takedowns and ground control/submissions in this fight. Sokoudjou and McDonald are two other guys Machida didn't want to stand with for too long, not the case for most of his other opponents (bar Greco which he did takedown several times but couldn't submit).

VP you say Rampage has only been submitted once, but he's only been (T)KO'd twice, by two Muay Thai fighters with a strong clinch game. I really think the chances are lower for him to get the (T)KO, and I'm considering the leg kicks too. Personally I don't think they're that hard anyway.

[bail3yz]

I personally dont see rampage being finished at all.. which is why I gave machida finish 5%.. which was including both TKOs and subs

[Mervin]

One thing I forgot to mention, you also have to consider that Rampage has been able to avoid being put on his back many times in his fights, decreasing his chances of being submitted. So we should give both fighters' records a bit more context IMO.

[vikingpride]

One thing I forgot to mention, you also have to consider that Rampage has been able to avoid being put on his back many times in his fights, decreasing his chances of being submitted. So we should give both fighters' records a bit more context IMO.

He was mounted vs Forrest, and on the ground a good part of the fight vs Evans. And the reason why he doesn't get put down much is becuase he's a huge LHW with good wrestling, and alot of strength.

And when have we seen much of Machida's wrestling to suggest he could put Jackson there?

Aside from him winning the clinch battles vs a below average wrestler in shogun in the second fight and him taking down a dead tired sokky?

Also i think the chances of a TKO from machida are higher than a sub for s few reasons.

-He's been stopped via T/KO 3 times (Wandy twice, Shogun). Three times as many times as he's been subbed.

-His last Sub loss was in 2001 and his last TKO was in 2005. Both a long time ago, but typically a fighters sub defense gets better with age and experience where as a fighters chin usually gets worse.

- Machida is mainly a striker, and tactically speaking it would be the smartest move on his part to stay with what he does best. Especially in this case where his style of striking seems to match up favorably with his opponent.

[Mervin]

He was mounted vs Forrest, and on the ground a good part of the fight vs Evans. And the reason why he doesn't get put down much is becuase he's a huge LHW with good wrestling, and alot of strength.

And when have we seen much of Machida's wrestling to suggest he could put Jackson there?

Aside from him winning the clinch battles vs a below average wrestler in shogun in the second fight and him taking down a dead tired sokky?

Ortiz. He also has those foot sweeps which are very hard to prepare for.

Also i think the chances of a TKO from machida are higher than a sub for s few reasons.

-He's been stopped via T/KO 3 times (Wandy twice, Shogun). Three times as many times as he's been subbed.

Again, you're just looking at his record and some numbers to draw conclusions without looking at the context of his fights.

-His last Sub loss was in 2001 and his last TKO was in 2005. Both a long time ago, but typically a fighters sub defense gets better with age and experience where as a fighters chin usually gets worse.

Valid, but again numbers don't tell the whole story.

- Machida is mainly a striker, and tactically speaking it would be the smartest move on his part to stay with what he does best. Especially in this case where his style of striking seems to match up favorably with his opponent.

He's also coming off a devastating, potentially mind changing KO loss, and is arguably facing the hardest puncher he's ever faced, with a great chin who can eat a shot to land one of his own. I expect some standup in this fight, but I'm also expecting some wrestling from Machida.

[Tripod]

Hmmmm...so far I'm risking 250 to win 200 for decision, and 100 to win 153 for Machida decision.

I could risk another $85 to break even if Rampage ends up with a finish...definitely something to think about, but I probably won't decide until Friday.

And yes Mervin, Machida could take Rampage down, but even if so, I don't see him subbing Rampage. Rampage has great cardio, so there won't be a gas submission. And in general at these high skilled more top tier fights, subs are extremely extremely rare, unless there's a relatively huge disparity between BJJ levels (Nog/Sylvia, Silva/Sonnen come to mind). In this case though, I just don't see it.

[bail3yz]

Hmmmm...so far I'm risking 250 to win 200 for decision, and 100 to win 153 for Machida decision.

I could risk another $85 to break even if Rampage ends up with a finish...definitely something to think about, but I probably won't decide until Friday.

ya, I am still debating whether its worth losing $85 in decision equity .. which is the most likely outcome.. to play it safe

tomorrow when I am not so lazy I will do some simple math to figure out what % makes it smart..

[vikingpride]

Ortiz. He also has those foot sweeps which are very hard to prepare for.


Figured you would bring up Ortiz, but Titos wrestling hasn't been that great for awhile. And there is no threat on shooting in on him since his striking sucks.

Again, you're just looking at his record and some numbers to draw conclusions without looking at the context of his fights.

And you're basically basing your entire opinion on how you think Machida will suddenly reinvent himself now that his style been defeated.

Yet last time his style was defeated (shogun/machida 1). Ok, so technically not defeated, but truly tested. He came back with basically the same style and never looked to initiate TD's vs Shogun (Machida/ Shogun 2). He only real got TD's when Shogun initiated.



Valid, but again numbers don't tell the whole story.

Yeah, but in this case they tell a great deal. And those are beyond just numbers, those are historic trends. And since this is a betting section numbers and trends are about the best things you have.

They sure as hell beat what i think would best be described as a "gut feelings" on your part.


He's also coming off a devastating, potentially mind changing KO loss, and is arguably facing the hardest puncher he's ever faced, with a great chin who can eat a shot to land one of his own. I expect some standup in this fight, but I'm also expecting some wrestling from Machida.

Very true, but it's not just like striking is an area he is good at. It's his whole life, granted he's shown skill in other areas, but Machida is the guy who's said dozens of times that Karate is the best form of Martial arts. And he even employees what he calls "Machida Karate". So do you really think a bad loss is gonna shake up his normal gameplan that much?


At the end of the day i just don't see Machida being on top very much on the ground and if he does i can't see him subbing Jackson.

[Mervin]

Figured you would bring up Ortiz, but Titos wrestling hasn't been that great for awhile. And there is no threat on shooting in on him since his striking sucks.

And you're basically basing your entire opinion on how you think Machida will suddenly reinvent himself now that his style been defeated.

Yet last time his style was defeated (shogun/machida 1). Ok, so technically not defeated, but truly tested. He came back with basically the same style and never looked to initiate TD's vs Shogun (Machida/ Shogun 2). He only real got TD's when Shogun initiated.

Yeah, but in this case they tell a great deal. And those are beyond just numbers, those are historic trends. And since this is a betting section numbers and trends are about the best things you have.

They sure as hell beat what i think would best be described as a "gut feelings" on your part.

Very true, but it's not just like striking is an area he is good at. It's his whole life, granted he's shown skill in other areas, but Machida is the guy who's said dozens of times that Karate is the best form of Martial arts. And he even employees what he calls "Machida Karate". So do you really think a bad loss is gonna shake up his normal gameplan that much?

At the end of the day i just don't see Machida being on top very much on the ground and if he does i can't see him subbing Jackson.

It's not a gut feeling, it's logical thinking based on how his approach changed going into the second Shogun fight after being outpointed by him, and how it should change now that he's been KTFO'd for the first time in his career and is facing a very hard hitter. So the bolded part is what I have the most issue with. How did he not change his gameplan in the second Shogun fight? He attempted two takedowns in 3:30 minutes of fighting, when he didn't go for one in 25 minutes in their first encounter lol. And Shogun did initiate the first time too.

So basic logic suggests Machida will adopt a more wrestling oriented approach for this fight. Now I'm not saying saying if he shoots he'll definitely get the takedown, and then submit Jackson, but I think he has a decent chance of getting the takedown, once on the ground, I'd give him a tiny-small chance of actually submitting Rampage, so that would be around 10% in my books. But when you're giving him a 2% chance, that's basically saying he has no chance whatsoever of taping him, which is wrong IMO, given the nature of the sport and other elements, one being it's been years since a good grappler attempted any type of submission on him, and even Griffin didn't really commit to the lock IIRC. So yeah, I'd say 10% is about right to me.

[vikingpride]

So the bolded part is what I have the most issue with. How did he not change his gameplan in the second Shogun fight? He attempted two takedowns in 3:30 minutes of fighting, when he didn't go for one in 25 minutes in their first encounter lol. And Shogun did initiate the first time too.

So basic logic suggests Machida will adopt a more wrestling oriented approach for this fight. Now I'm not saying saying if he shoots he'll definitely get the takedown, and then submit Jackson, but I think he has a decent chance of getting the takedown, once on the ground, I'd give him a tiny-small chance of actually submitting Rampage, so that would be around 10% in my books. But when you're giving him a 2% chance, that's basically saying he has no chance whatsoever of taping him, which is wrong IMO, given the nature of the sport and other elements, one being it's been years since a good grappler attempted any type of submission on him, and even Griffin didn't really commit to the lock IIRC. So yeah, I'd say 10% is about right to me.

The first TD was after Shogun initiated the grappling by shooting in,and machida stuffed it and then got a trip of his own. Once landing on the ground though Machida looked very unconcerned with working or really doing anything and Shogun got back up after threatening a sweep.

The second TD came again as defense more so than offense. As shogun had tagged Machida and Machida looked to clinch up to gather his bearings. Shogun went for the trip though and Machida was able to reverse by pushing shogun back and landing in half guard. Again doing very little once it hit the ground (leading me to believe it was once again more defense then offense).

So really it looked like Machida didn't change his gameplan as much as shogun did (he attempted 2 td's, same number as he did the enter first fight) and Machida was basically just winning the wrestling as opposed to initiating (which isn't new).


In order to get a sub on the ground he'd really have to work vs Rampage on the ground, something he hasn't shown much interest in over the years.

So your giving him a 10% chance to sub Rampage once on the ground. but what if machida never hits gets on top then that sub % would obviously go down. Since the 10% looks to be a maximum from the point they are on the ground. So it's logical to believe that some fights never hit the ground so therefore the 10% would be dropped. So 10% wouldn't be about right. It would be right in a grappling match that was destined to hit the ground, but not an mma match.

[bail3yz]

Hmmmm...so far I'm risking 250 to win 200 for decision, and 100 to win 153 for Machida decision.

I could risk another $85 to break even if Rampage ends up with a finish...definitely something to think about, but I probably won't decide until Friday.


$250 @ -125 to go to decision
$100 @ +153 for Machida to win via decison

$85 @ +422 for Rampage to win inside the distance

My predicted %s
Machida 65% decision
Machida 5% finish
Rampage 20% finish
Rampage 10% decision

Now to figure out whether its worth placing that $85 bet..

w = net if machida wins via dec
x = net if rampage wins via dec
y = net if machida wins via finish
z = net if rampage wins via finish

w = (250/1.25 + 100*1.53 - 85) = 268
x = (250/1.25 - 100 - 85) = 15
y = -250 -100-85 = -435
z = -250 - 100 + (85*4.22) = 8.7


total equity long term with rampge finish bet= (0.65 * w) + (.1 * x)+ (.05 * y) + (.2 * z)
= 174.2 + 1.5 + 1.74 + (-21.75)
= $155.69

Now if we disclude the $85 dollar bet

w = (250/1.25 + 100*1.53) = 353
x = (250/1.25 - 100) = 100
y = -250 -100 = -350
z = -250 - 100 = -350


total equity long term without rampage bet= (0.65 * w) + (.1 * x)+ (.05 * y) + (.2 * z)
= 229.45 + 10 + (-17.5) + (-70)
= $151.91

So almost even equity it seems.. considering your bet sizing and the %s I assigned (which I think most people disagree with tho lol)

Now lets see this with someone elses precents

DPs predicted %s
Machida via Dec - 55%
Machida via Stoppage - 10%
Rampage via Dec - 15%
Rampage vis Stoppage - 20%


w = (250/1.25 + 100*1.53 - 85) = 268
x = (250/1.25 - 100 - 85) = 15
y = -250 -100-85 = -435
z = -250 - 100 + (85*4.22) = 8.7

total equity long term with rampge finish bet= (0.55 * w) + (.15 * x)+ (.1 * y) + (.2 * z)
= 147.4 + 2.25 + (-43.5) + 1.74
= 107.89

w = (250/1.25 + 100*1.53) = 353
x = (250/1.25 - 100) = 100
y = -250 -100 = -350
z = -250 - 100 = -350


total equity long term without rampage bet= (0.55 * w) + (.15 * x)+ (.1 * y) + (.2 * z)
= 194.15 + 15 + (-35) + (-70)
= 104.15



So really its not going to make a huge difference either way.. since its +422.. if you think rampage finishes >=20% its probably worth a bet

I put 20% in my original predictions.. but I am now leaning towards probably 10-15%... and rampages decision % even lower.. probably 5-7%.. so I wont be betting on this

[Mervin]

The first TD was after Shogun initiated the grappling by shooting in,and machida stuffed it and then got a trip of his own. Once landing on the ground though Machida looked very unconcerned with working or really doing anything and Shogun got back up after threatening a sweep.

The second TD came again as defense more so than offense. As shogun had tagged Machida and Machida looked to clinch up to gather his bearings. Shogun went for the trip though and Machida was able to reverse by pushing shogun back and landing in half guard. Again doing very little once it hit the ground (leading me to believe it was once again more defense then offense).

So really it looked like Machida didn't change his gameplan as much as shogun did (he attempted 2 td's, same number as he did the enter first fight) and Machida was basically just winning the wrestling as opposed to initiating (which isn't new).

This is simply not an accurate description of what happened during the fight. When did you last rewatch it? The first takedown was initiated by Shogun yes, but Machida could have pushed him away and continue to strike with him, instead, he decided to take him down. He had several takedown/trip opportunies in the first fight too, but never took them. Once on the ground, he was looking to control Shogun and secure position before trying to do anything. Why? Before Shogun was threatening him with a sweep first, then with a leg lock. Machida simply couldn't control Shogun.

Despite that, he initiated the second takedown. Yes he was getting tagged seconds before, but it's not like he didn't get his legs beat up and tagged a few times in the first fight too, yet again, he didn't go for 1 takedown in 5 rounds. The fact remains that he had takedown opportunities in both fights, he took all of them in the second, but never did in the first. So I think we can say his gameplan changed from the first to the second Shogun fight. Now that he got KO'd and is facing the heaviest puncher in the division, I think it's safe to speculate he will go for takedowns at several points during the fight (should it last long enough).

In order to get a sub on the ground he'd really have to work vs Rampage on the ground, something he hasn't shown much interest in over the years.

So your giving him a 10% chance to sub Rampage once on the ground. but what if machida never hits gets on top then that sub % would obviously go down. Since the 10% looks to be a maximum from the point they are on the ground. So it's logical to believe that some fights never hit the ground so therefore the 10% would be dropped. So 10% wouldn't be about right. It would be right in a grappling match that was destined to hit the ground, but not an mma match.

10% wouldn't be right if the fight never hits the ground obviously, but neither would 2% or even 1% lol. If the fight was destined to go to the ground, I'd give it a higher %, but it's not. I just think that considering all of the info at hand, Machida will incorporate takedowns to his gameplan, which you don't agree with, and that's why with have different %. If you agreed with me, your % would be closer to mine and vice versa.

[vikingpride]

Shogun begin to isolate and go for the leg lock first, and then he came with the helicopter sweep.

And i watched the fight again about 2 minutes before my last post.

I doubt Machida will incorporate many TD's in this fight, and if he does i'm not sure he gets them. And if he does i doubt he uses them to set up subs even less. And on the chance he does look to take it ground and can get it to the ground and then that he looks to sub. I just dont think that he can sub Rampage.

It just seems pretty remote as alot of unlikely things need to happen. And thus is why i put the chances of a sub at around 2%.

[Mervin]

As I said at the end of my previous post, what it comes down to between my 10% and your 2%, is that I think Machida will try to put Rampage on his back (I'd say 1 or 2 attempts each round) and will actually manage to, whereas you don't think he'll use much takedowns if any (judging from your posts). If I thought he would stick to kickboxing with him, I'd probably have my % = or <5 as well, we just have different breakdowns of the fight.

[vikingpride]

Yeah we're basically getting to this point now between the two of us.:horse:

lol

And since this is a betting thread the matter it'll be finished in isn't imported. It only matters the % we think it gets finished and since i think we both seem to agree that Machida finishes right around 10%, the rest is pretty trivial.

'Twas a fun little debate though. :party6:

[Mervin]

Lol, true. Thanks for wasting both our times by posting in this thread (especially mine :smoke:).

[Lotus]

good lord bail, how the hell do you keep your peanut sized brain from exploding posting that shit :p

[vikingpride]

good lord bail, how the hell do you keep your peanut sized brain from exploding posting that shit :p

He's FLD's rain main. lol

[Tripod]

I'm not betting on this since I have so much invested in this general prop bet, but Rampage via decision at +1243?? Um....wow.

[screenamesuck]

Lmao at you guys' % breakdowns. I think the recent K-1 and boxing events messed you up :smoke:.

What percentage would you pick for each outcome???