View Full Version : Is Penn really the underdog
screenamesuck
01-14-2011, 01:44 PM
I just never thought I'd see Penn as the underdog in this fight. I guess most places think Fitch will just keep taking Penn down.
Penn +145
Fitch -175
http://www.betus.com/sportsbook/ufc_127-u.f.c._futures-penn_vs_fitch.aspx
Main card:
B.J. Penn (http://www.sbnation.com/mma/fighter/122540/b-j-penn) +160 (http://record.partners.betus.com/_kbbdbinqB0lSMMcHaLJ9iWNd7ZgqdRLk/2) vs. Jon Fitch (http://www.sbnation.com/mma/fighter/122576/jon-fitch) -180 (http://record.partners.betus.com/_kbbdbinqB0lSMMcHaLJ9iWNd7ZgqdRLk/2)
Michael Bisping (http://www.sbnation.com/mma/fighter/122551/michael-bisping) -500 (http://record.partners.betus.com/_kbbdbinqB0lSMMcHaLJ9iWNd7ZgqdRLk/2) vs. Jorge Rivera (http://www.sbnation.com/mma/fighter/122893/jorge-rivera) +300 (http://record.partners.betus.com/_kbbdbinqB0lSMMcHaLJ9iWNd7ZgqdRLk/2)
George Sotiropoulos (http://www.sbnation.com/mma/fighter/122544/george-sotiropoulos) vs. Dennis Siver (http://www.sbnation.com/mma/fighter/122895/dennis-siver)
Carlos Condit (http://www.sbnation.com/mma/fighter/122573/carlos-condit) -205 (http://record.partners.betus.com/_kbbdbinqB0lSMMcHaLJ9iWNd7ZgqdRLk/2) vs. Chris Lytle (http://www.sbnation.com/mma/fighter/122583/chris-lytle) +165 (http://record.partners.betus.com/_kbbdbinqB0lSMMcHaLJ9iWNd7ZgqdRLk/2)
Kyle Noke (http://www.sbnation.com/mma/fighter/125027/kyle-noke) vs. Chris Camozzi (http://www.sbnation.com/mma/fighter/122618/chris-camozzi)
Preliminary card:
Ross Pearson (http://www.sbnation.com/mma/fighter/122622/ross-pearson) vs. Spencer Fisher (http://www.sbnation.com/mma/fighter/122613/spencer-fisher)
James Te Huna vs. Alexander Gustafsson (http://www.sbnation.com/mma/fighter/122632/alexander-gustafsson)
Nick Ring vs. Riki Fukuda
Mark Hunt (http://www.sbnation.com/mma/fighter/122607/mark-hunt) vs. Chris Tuchscherer
Maciej Jewtuszko vs. Curt Warburton (http://www.sbnation.com/mma/fighter/122636/curt-warburton)
Anthony Perosh vs. Tom Blackledge (http://www.sbnation.com/mma/fighter/122637/tom-blackledge)
Tiequan Zhang (http://www.sbnation.com/mma/fighter/122876/zhang-tie-quan) vs. Jason Reinhardt
If I had money I'd probably bet on Penn and Lytle, I think they both have pretty good chances
bail3yz
01-14-2011, 01:46 PM
I think Penn should be the underdog
e-thug
01-14-2011, 01:51 PM
I wasn't expecting anything different, Fitch is a big WW who will be able to take BJ down...how often will that happen and can BJ scramble back up is what ya have to decide.
bail3yz
01-14-2011, 01:54 PM
Shit, I think Lytle is an awesome bet tho
---------- Post added at 02:54 PM ---------- Previous post was at 02:52 PM ----------
arg.. fuckin 5dimes loading like horse shit.. wont let me login
screenamesuck
01-14-2011, 02:01 PM
If the Edgar fight never happened people would be saying Penn can't be taken down. It used to be only GSP that could take him down lol. I think Fitch will be able to get him down eventually, but I don't think it will be as easy as it was for Edgar because I think you can see it coming a lot easier when Fitch is trying for a takedown. I think Penn will pick Fitch apart on the feet and probably rock him early.
bail3yz
01-14-2011, 02:04 PM
I dont consider the edgar fights at all when thinking about this..
Edgar got his takedowns when Penn was tired / off guard..
I am not discrediting Penn because of the Edgar fights..
Penn fights at WW out of shape.. Fitch is a HUGE WW.. with the exception of the Hughes KO.. Penn hasnt fought at WW in forever.. and that fight didnt tell us anything... because it was 21s long.
GSP basically showed everyone how to beat Penn if you are a bigger stronger better wrestler.. Fitch is all of those things...and he has no problem making the fight boring to beat Penn.
DaProdigy
01-14-2011, 02:41 PM
Great analysis Bail. For all those resaons I am getting ready to shed a tear while I watch that fight. Penn should definitely be an underdog.
It would be fucking awesome if Penn somehow found a way to win though.
Also I don't particularly like the Lytle bet. Condit is on the rise and on form he should handle Lytle's wild man style.
FunkYou
01-14-2011, 02:51 PM
Great analysis Bail. For all those resaons I am getting ready to shed a tear while I watch that fight. Penn should definitely be an underdog.
It would be fucking awesome if Penn somehow found a way to win though.
Also I don't particularly like the Lytle bet. Condit is on the rise and on form he should handle Lytle's wild man style.
The first part we are in complete agreement on. I am prepared to "have something in my eye" when that fight comes around.
Lytle could be a good bet though as he hasn't been fighting with his ugly ass wildd haymaker style as much recently. He is also more willing to take it down and get it done on the mat. Carlos may well give him opportunities to punch him in the face standing and from top position.
Bit off topic, but Condit vs Lytle will be FUCKING AWESOME !
warran
01-14-2011, 03:18 PM
fitch will win a 29-28 UD
He should be the underdog. Fitch is gigantic, can take an inhuman amount of punishment on the feet, is extremely hard to sub, has great cardio and will constantly just look to grind on BJ whose gas tank has always been spotty.
e-thug
01-14-2011, 03:56 PM
He should be the underdog. Fitch is gigantic, can take an inhuman amount of punishment on the feet, is extremely hard to sub, has great cardio and will constantly just look to grind on BJ whose gas tank has always been spotty.
Took the words right out of my mouth, Penn should take the first but once his gas tank begins to dwindle is when Fitch will really take over, I hop BJ can give us a solid 10 minutes standing up to take a UD but im doubting that will happen.
screenamesuck
01-14-2011, 07:03 PM
In a 3 round fight I think Penn will win. Penn will out strike Fitch in the first, possibly hurting him and do enough in the 2nd to win a decision I think. I might actually pick Penn to win by TKO
southpaw447
01-15-2011, 12:24 AM
He should be.
Fitch is bigger, stylistically this isn't a fight that favors BJ, BJ has a tendency to gas and Fitch never gets tired, Fitch never gets finished and can take a tremendous beating, BJ hasn't beat anyone relevant in a while, Fitch is the #2 at WW
so yeah, I think BJ being the underdog makes sense.
I said it in the other thread but I don't think he even needs to take BJ down to work his game. He can just put him up against the cage and do essentially what he does to a guy when hes on top.
screenamesuck
01-15-2011, 02:16 AM
He should be.
Fitch is bigger, stylistically this isn't a fight that favors BJ, BJ has a tendency to gas and Fitch never gets tired, Fitch never gets finished and can take a tremendous beating, BJ hasn't beat anyone relevant in a while, Fitch is the #2 at WW
so yeah, I think BJ being the underdog makes sense.
It just amazes me how one or two fights can change peoples views of a fighter. Less than a year ago Penn was considered by many as one of the best in the world and by some the P4P best. Edgar beats him and now he hasn't beaten anyone relevant in awhile. Maybe thats because he pretty much dominated everyone in his division up until the Edgar fight. I'd say making Florian, Sanchez and Hughes look laughable is not something to forget. Penn is still the overall better fighter than Fitch and the ONLY way I see Fitch winning this fight is by smothering Penn for 3 full rounds and regardless of the fact that Edgar got him down I don't think Fitch is quick enough. Even if he does get it to the ground I think Penn will get right back up. In 15 minutes I think Penn will catch Fitch with something.
I don't think anyone not named GSP beats Fitch at WW. Dude's a monster...
BJ hasn't beat anyone relevant in a while
http://fc06.deviantart.net/fs71/f/2010/351/8/4/mario_bros_haters_gonna_hate_by_mattmcmanis-d352c8d.gif
Yeah lol, like Florini isn't relevant. Also, Hughes was on quite a run there.
warran
01-15-2011, 01:52 PM
Why are people acting like Fitch is a bum? He has been dominant against everyone except GSP and maybe a really underrated Mike Pierce. Outside of GSP he hasn't lost in 7 years. Fitch has all the tools needed to outmuscle BJ in the 2nd and 3rd and BJ hasn't shown the gas tank to deal with aggressive grappling.
Why are people acting like Fitch is a bum?
Nobody's posted anything even close to saying that. In fact, the overriding consensus seems to be that he's a deserved favourite here.
Yea, noone is acting like he's a bum. Fitch is a great fighter. BJ has advantage in BJJ and Striking but as everyone says, whenever BJ gets tired, Fitch will be able to get him down time and time again.
And to say that BJ havnt beaten anyone relevant recently is ridiciolous. Before Edgar he went on a run taking out best of the best at LW in UFC. After Edgar, he fucked Hughes up in like 21 seconds.
Thaispider
01-15-2011, 02:17 PM
simple fact is fitch is a fucking beast, just not a very fan freindly style hence the hate/dislike towards him.
dude would have been the WW king for years already had GSP not been produced by the MMA gods haha
southpaw447
01-15-2011, 06:06 PM
Yeah lol, like Florini isn't relevant. Also, Hughes was on quite a run there.
I never said Florian wasn't relevant. In fact he was the last relevant fighter BJ fought. 17 months is a long time in MMA.
Hughes is not relevant and it's not really a challenge for a fighter of Penn's caliber and it's not a win that anyone should put a tremendous amount of stock in when talking about BJ fighting the consensus #2 WW in the world. Hughes is on his way out.
Hughes is at the end of his career but it's still a relevant win. How was Diego not relevant when Penn beat him also?
Such irrational Penn hate from Southpaw, I guess some things don't change.
southpaw447
01-15-2011, 06:28 PM
Hughes is at the end of his career but it's still a relevant win.
Elaborate? I'm not sure beating Serra in a questionable decision, Almeida, and Renzo make you a relevant fighter. And I'm not sure such a fighter is relevant win for someone of Penn's caliber.
How was Diego not relevant when Penn beat him also?
Diego got his shot beating a bum and two gatekeepers.
Such irrational Penn hate from Southpaw, I guess some things don't change.
Yeah I guess not.
Elaborate? I'm not sure beating Serra in a questionable decision, Almeida, and Renzo make you a relevant fighter. And I'm not sure such a fighter is relevant win for someone of Penn's caliber.
Hughes has only lost to top fighters. The Renzo fight was a joke but Serra is still a decent win and Almeida was a good win, especially considering how dominant it was. Hughes isn't an elite fighter anymore, but he's still a relevant win.
Diego got his shot beating a bum and two gatekeepers.
So now a fighter who picks up wins over gatekeepers is irrelevant? Really?
Yeah I guess not.
Well at least you're honest about it.
screenamesuck
01-15-2011, 07:21 PM
Diego got his shot beating a bum and two gatekeepers.
Diego is 22-4. He has beaten....
Florian
Santiago
Allesio
Diaz
Parisyan
Riggs
Stevenson
Guida
and now Thiago
A lot of people thought he beat Fitch and the Koscheck fight wasn't even a fight.
Yup, he isn't relevant at all, he sucks
vikingpride
01-15-2011, 07:37 PM
Diego got his shot beating a bum and two gatekeepers.
Well the definition of a Gatekeeper is basically a guy who's just outside the title picture and is used to propel challengers to the title picture. So really beating 2 Gatekeepers is prob more than most challengers do before getting a shot. Thus that argument is kind of weak. lol
I don't think Diego is exactly a top fighter at 155 either by any means, but the "only" fighting two gatekeepers argument is like i said weak.
As for the actual thread. I think Fitch is rightfully the favorite. He's got really good wrestling, good control, a big gas tank, and most importantly he knows all of this. And uses it to his advantage instead of thinking he's a striker like so many do. And while he doesn't have the explosiveness of a guy like Edgar, he does have roughly 30 pounds on him and considerably more strength.
Expect this to look alot like Penn/Florian for the first round, but with Fitch doing significantly more work, and stiffing any and all offense from Penn. Then in the second and third rounds having the size and wrestling to take down a tired and frustrated Penn.
screenamesuck
01-16-2011, 02:30 AM
Ugh, I really hope Fitch doesn't just lay on him the WHOLE time. Stopping Penn would be huge
I never said Florian wasn't relevant. In fact he was the last relevant fighter BJ fought. 17 months is a long time in MMA.
Hughes is not relevant and it's not really a challenge for a fighter of Penn's caliber and it's not a win that anyone should put a tremendous amount of stock in when talking about BJ fighting the consensus #2 WW in the world. Hughes is on his way out.
Was gonna respond but others have done that for me. Note that BJ's recent fights were against ranked fighters, no matter how we as fans rate them.
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