FLD Team Parlays

[bail3yz]

So after e-thug that mfer hits a 10 fight parlay I've been thinking how sick itd be if all of us hit the same parlay one night... since a bunch of us are doing these big parlays now.

I've been doing entire card parlays on and off for 2 years or so. and I have yet to hit 1.. but I've been 1 off 7 or 8 times... and at least 2 of those times including a fight + outcome correctly. So although I suck and never actually hit anything, it shows how realistic hitting one of them is... just super high variance, but very profitable imo.

So heres my idea...

1) all the bettors (or anyone, but bettors will have the final say) give their input on each fight and we agree on a final entire card parlay...
2) everyone places their bets
3) ???
4) Profit

Lately Ive been getting so carried away with selecting outcomes for each fight if possible, that I havent made a realistic parlay in the last few events.. but going to do one for this next card.

Theres obviously going to be times when we cant come to an agreement on certain fights.. we'll deal with those as they come up. Not really a big deal as you can always make your own parlays too... itd just be cool to know that we are all rooting for the same thing for our group parlay, and if it hits we all get paid

whos interested?

[bail3yz]

Just went through my history.. I have 7 parlays in the last 2.5 years that were 9-12 fights and I lost by 1... and there was a long gap when I stopped making these parlays.

[bail3yz]

here are my initial thoughts

Rashad
Sonnen (worth using his dec line imo)
Weidman
Dunham
Olav Einemo
Swanson
Beltran (?????)
Oliveira
Roller
Camozzi

[e-thug]

here are my initial thoughts

Rashad
Sonnen (worth using his dec line imo)
Weidman
Dunham
Olav Einemo
Swanson
Beltran (?????)
Oliveira
Roller
Camozzi

I'm gonna wait til weigh ins....I dont expect anyone to miss but Weidman taking the fight on short notice concerns me in that department.

Mine is the exact same as yours except for Swanson.....I'm going with Roop for a couple reasons:

His last 5 fights as a FW read's 2-2-1, the draw to Garcia was retarded and the Hioki loss was very close, could read 4-1 with a bit of luck.

One loss? Hominick and Swanson doesn't have the striking that Hominick has.

Roop has also started using his length, Swanson fight IQ is pretty low if you ask me, fun fighter but doesn't really gameplan IMO.

Beltran/Johnson is a bitch and im absolutely putting Sonnen by dec in my parlay.

[bail3yz]

Ya I was actually on the fence with that one.. Roop is super underrated and almost beat that overrated hioki donkey.. didnt put much thought into it initially..

[e-thug]

Ya I was actually on the fence with that one.. Roop is super underrated and almost beat that overrated hioki donkey.. didnt put much thought into it initially..

Def been spending alot mroe time breaking shit down cuz yeah Swanson was on my mind too until I looked into it a bit more.

Beltran/Johnson is very dependant on the 1st rd IMO.....Johnson will be scary in the 1st rd but if he cant finish him I think his gas tank shall fail him and Beltrans pressure will win him rds 2-3.

[bail3yz]

oh.. what happened to johnny bedford's fight?.. got canned?

thought that was a questionable one to pick too at first sight.. lots of unknowns

---------- Post added at 05:27 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:20 PM ----------

little bit worried about weidman, but idk.. maia probably loses unless he gets the finish

[e-thug]

oh.. what happened to johnny bedford's fight?.. got canned?

thought was a questionable one to pick too at first sight.. lots of unknowns

---------- Post added at 05:27 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:20 PM ----------

little bit worried about weidman, but idk.. maia probably loses unless he gets the finish

Yeah Bedford/Gagnon got canned due to Gagnon visa issues....glad its gone TBH, Gagnon had a good ground game apparently and Bedford likes to get submitted....hard to bet on someone you've never seen though.

If Weidman wasn't coming in on 10 days notice I'd have no issues cuz his skillset is good enough to beat Maia.

[Brad.Taschuk]

I have the same, but with Roop instead of Swanson as well.

I also did two smaller full card parlays, one each with Beltran and Johnson, just because who knows what's gonna happen there.

Rashad - Been looking pretty beastly in the limited time we've seen him of late. Don't expect Phil's wrestling to be so decisive that it wins him the fight, and Rashad is the far more explosive striker.
Chael - Obvious pick is obvious. Only question is whether you want to go super safe and pick him straight up, or regular amounts of safe and pick him by decision.
Weidman - His wrestling is better than Maia's, and his grappling was good enough to more than hang with Galvao in ADCC, so I think he's more than capable of winning a decision if this turns into a grappling match. I'm still not at all impressed by Maia's stand up, and that's taking into account his massive improvements over the past few years, so I think Weidman can win there too.
Dunham - Better striker and grappler than Lentz. May even be able to shut down his wrestling as well. The only risk is if Lentz gets his bore on. If the team parlay gets to this point, leverage it with another bet of Lentz by decision.
Einemo - Other than Beltran/Johnson this worries me the most. Russow is just a fat slob, but he finds ways to win. Again, Einemo is the better striker and vastly superior on the ground (Russow got tapped in Kharitonov's guard! I didn't even know Sergei had a guard!) so I feel alright about people underrating him because of the Herman loss (which was his first fight in 5 years).
Roop - What e-thug said.
Beltran/Johnson - Fuck it. Bet them both. If you had to choose, I'd put more faith in Beltran's ability to slop through his fatigue than Lavar though.
Oliveira - Should demolish Wisely. Hopefully we get a nice sub out of it.
Roller - Bigger. Better wrestler. Better grappler. As long as he doesn't get brained by Johnson in the first minute or so, he gets a TD, takes Johnson's back and chokes him out.
Camozzi - Jacoby looked so bad in his last performance that I basically decided I wasn't picking him again, ever. Camozzi isn't great, but he should grind a decision here, just like Starks did.

[bail3yz]

Alright ..looks like we all pretty much have the same parlay.. im going to do 2 for beltran/johnson also.

[Tripod]

I'm probably just going to leave Beltran/Johnson out. As well as Roop/Swanson. Those fights really could go either way and I'd rather take the worse odds than ruining my parlay.

Weidman/Maia fight is a bit scary too but I'll go ahead with that one.

[bail3yz]

weak tripod weak

youll get shit odds if you dont include the tougher fights

i still do some smaller parlays, but you gotta always do an entire card parlay

[Tripod]

weak tripod weak

youll get shit odds if you dont include the tougher fights

i still do some smaller parlays, but you gotta always do an entire card parlay

Imagine if you had just left off that 1 fight you got wrong in all your full card parlays.

[Brad.Taschuk]

Just because he lost them doesn't mean they were the toughest fights to pick. Could have been an incredibly difficult upset to pick.

[e-thug]

Yeah my format now is one entire card parlay, a couple 3-4 fight parlay/prop parlay bets and then a good chunk of change on Sonnen/Bisping, Davis/Evans....might add more but will see how much time I get to play around with it tomorrow.

[bail3yz]

Just because he lost them doesn't mean they were the toughest fights to pick. Could have been an incredibly difficult upset to pick.

Yup the one I got wrong the majority of the time was a huge upset

[bail3yz]

ones I lost off the top of my head

joe lauzon losing to sam stout
efrain losing to dunham
madsen losing to russow
chan sung jung losing to roop
kingsbury losing to bonnar

[Tripod]

Guys, instead of parlaying either Einemo or Russow, what about doing the prop fight doesn't go to round 3 at -170? Great value right there.

[bail3yz]

Selections 1002 Rashad Evans* and 1111 Sonnen wins by 3 round decision* are invalid within the same Parlay. Please make a different selection.


^^^^^^ WTF

I already placed my parlays.. but was trying to make one for a friend and its not letting me add props for chael/bisping with Rashad ... wtf

---------- Post added at 03:05 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:03 PM ----------

Guys, instead of parlaying either Einemo or Russow, what about doing the prop fight doesn't go to round 3 at -170? Great value right there.

idk.. I feel like Einemo is just the better pick because of the odds.

-170 isnt that great there.. I feel you hit that line only a bit more than you would hit Einemo winning.. and hes +140

[Tripod]

Selections 1002 Rashad Evans* and 1111 Sonnen wins by 3 round decision* are invalid within the same Parlay. Please make a different selection.


^^^^^^ WTF

I already placed my parlays.. but was trying to make one for a friend and its not letting me add props for chael/bisping with Rashad ... wtf

---------- Post added at 03:05 PM ---------- Previous post was at 03:03 PM ----------



idk.. I feel like Einemo is just the better pick because of the odds.

-170 isnt that great there.. I feel you hit that line only a bit more than you would hit Einemo winning.. and hes +140

I feel like for a parlay it's great though. For a straight bet, I'd rather take Einemo at +140.

[Brad.Taschuk]

My issue with that bet, is that if Russow wins I see it being a sloppy laying on top of Einemo type decision. Plus he doesn't have power at the best of times (regardless of the Duffee KO).

[bail3yz]

yup I'm with Brad