[Aaron]

Efraine couldn't finish Dan Lauzon. Aside from landing that bomb on Cole Miller, He doesn't really have a lot of stopping power. On the ground Oliveira is very talented, so I see Efraine being very conservative on top when there.

-160 implies that this event occurs 61.5% of the time to break even. Do you really see Efraine finishing 40% of the time here?

I say not even close.

Firstly Oliveira could win this fight, Efraine isn't that good. Oliveira is very slick on the ground, could end the fight via sub at any time. Against Elkins, Oliveira came in with a lot of hype surrounding him, and delivered. I don't him having any problem stepping up and competing well w/ Efraine.

So the only outcome we DON'T want to happen is Efraine winning via stoppage. I see him winning via stoppage less than 40% of the time...closer to 25% IMO.

Thoughts?

[Brad.Taschuk]

Not even 25% of the time, I would say. Efrain is going to want to stay off the ground in this one at all costs. If he thought Dunham subbed him with ease, Oliviera will tie him in knots.

That leads to Efrain being cautious on the feet to avoid putting himself in a spot where Oliviera could end up on top. Cautious Efrain couldn't finish a sentence.

Good bet.