Georges St. Pierre (Champion) vs. Thiago Alves (challenger)

Obviously as a St. Pierre fan this is the fight I'm most looking forward to. They are arguably the two most talented fighters on the card.

A larger percentage of fans, journalists and even Dana White himself considers this without a doubt the biggest challenge to St. Pierre's title yet. I'm going to be called a ballwasher or blind nuthugger for saying this, but I personally think this is going to be "just another fight for the champion" but that doesn't mean that Thiago isn't dangerous and presents some interesting problems.

If there was anytime that you could say a fighter has a "punchers chance" in a fight, this would be it, IMO.

Thiago Alves is an aggressive striker with vicious leg kicks and big power, but form a technical standpoint he isn't very good.

He is very strong on the ground in the top position but he doesn't appear very comfortable off his back and his ground game is mostly defensive. His takedown defense is much improved and was on display in his fight with Hughes, Karo and Koscheck all of which are very good on the ground, but are not on the level of Georges St. Pierre.

Considering Alves was slated to fight Diego Sanchez before he was injured and Koscheck stepped in on short notice, he shown he was well prepared to defend the aggressive Koscheck takedowns but however was taken down by Hughes which I found unusual.

Thiago has definitely impressed over his last few fights but I don't see him being able to beat St. Pierre.

Since Georges' loss to Matt Serra over 2 years ago, he's gone from fighting aggressive and often careless, to fighting smart and it's been serving him very well.

Georges has very good striking from a technical standpoint and while he may not have that one punch KO power, he has the ability to effectively control the distance between him and his opponent.

Georges has very good footwork, a very effective jab, and moves very well. He will also have a significant reach advantage in this fight. His stand-up is very unorthodox and crafty due to his Kyokushin Karate background.


While Alves was able to defend the takedowns of Koscheck and most of Hughes', I don't believe he will be able to stop St. Pierre's. While they do have great wrestling pedigrees, I believe St. Pierre's wrestling is more MMA adapted and he trains with Wreslter's that are of Olympic Caliber, he doesn't train with MMA wrestlers.

Also unlike Kos and Hughes, St. Pierre doesn't shoot in recklessly or ankle bite his opponents. Georges takedown are very well set up and carefully calculated.

Georges has unparalleled top control and as strong as Thaigo is or may appear, I don't see him being able to handle Georges on top of him.

Thiago walks around at about 200lbs and this is the first time Thiago has to make 170lbs. I'm interested to see if he can and how it will effect his performance come fight night.

I think the longer this fight goes the more heavily Georges is favored. If he can keep the distance, avoid close range exchanges, and set-up his takedowns well, he takes this fight. Once Georges gets the first takedown, each takedown after that is going to become easier for him, IMO.

If Thiago had a more offensive ground game off his back and wasn't so straight forward, I'd would give him a much bigger chance in this fight.


I see Georges breaking Thiago Alves in the first round and putting him away in the third round by either TKO or Submission.

Lesnar (Champion) vs. Mir (Interim Champion)

While don't like either of these guys I see Lesnar taking this fight. However I see Mir putting up more of a fight this time and being more aggressive. Still I see Lesnar taking this by TKO early in the fight or smothering and controlling Mir for a very lackluster Unanimous Decision.


Lesnar by TKO round 2

So give a brief description of your predictions

[Meshuggeth]

I think GSP will win but I'm not sure how and I haven't made a pick for the main event, its a tough one. All I know is that I'm far and away most excited for Sexyama's fight.

[Thaispider]

im going for lesnar via a late stoppage win, and i honestly believe alves will beat gsp but thats my opinion, great thing aboutr these fights lots of people will be split on who they think will win.

[MilesHackett]

If there was anytime that you could say a fighter has a "punchers chance" in a fight, this would be it, IMO.

Alves has more than a puncher's chance. He has the best striking GSP has encountered yet, good power in his hands, with nasty leg kicks and knees. You say a fighter has a "puncher's chance" when they have no logical chances at all, and I think standing Thiago is the favourite.

Thiago Alves is an aggressive striker with vicious leg kicks and big power, but form a technical standpoint he isn't very good.

I disagree. His kicking form is phenomenal and his boxing has improved significantly in his last few fights. He takes a lot more damage than he needs to, but to say he's not technically very good is misleading to say the least.

Considering Alves was slated to fight Diego Sanchez before he was injured and Koscheck stepped in on short notice, he shown he was well prepared to defend the aggressive Koscheck takedowns but however was taken down by Hughes which I found unusual.

Why would it be unusual? Alves injured his ankle a few weeks before the Hughes fight.


I'll post my picks after the event tonight.

[Jack]

I've got GSP taking Alves down a lot and beating him up, I can see Alves winning a round, maybe two but I think GSP can take him down almost once per round which should be enough to win the fight as I don't see Thiago finishing it from the bottom or even having that much success getting back up from there.

I can see Alves stuffing a couple of shots, but GSP has the cardio advantage so I see him getting him down eventually and tiring Alves out on the bottom.

He could always catch him yeah, but I think it's more likely GSP plays it smart and either stays on the outside or clinched up. He doesn't wanna stand and trade in the pocket.


I see Brock donkey konging Mir late in the second. TBH I don't give a shit about this fight as I don't like either fighter, don't particularly enjoy watching either fighter and don't feel either one of them really deserves the belt.

How hilarious would it be if this one made it past the third? We'd have two depressingly gassed dudes fighting for the "Superbowl of MMA".

[bbjd7]

GSP will win IMO by decision but it is a really tough fight. I think Thiago doesn't get enough credit the guy is very powerful and underrated on the ground. Unfortantly he's fighting GSP who is IMO the best fighter in the world. I'll be cheering for Thiago though.

I think I'm picking Lesnar by first round KO but I'm torn. The more I think about it the more I think it'll hit the ground and Brock will get subbed quickly again. I'm sticking with Brock by KO for now. Personally I hope we get a double KO because I think they are both Assholes.

[Tripod]

Gotta agree with Miles here. Alves is very technical from a Muay Thai standpoint. His hip control during his kicks is really quite good. Standing, Alves definitely has the advantage in my eyes, which leads to him having more than just a puncher's chance.

[southpaw447]

Originally Posted by MilesHackett

Alves has more than a puncher's chance. He has the best striking GSP has encountered yet, good power in his hands, with nasty leg kicks and knees. You say a fighter has a "puncher's chance" when they have no logical chances at all, and I think standing Thiago is the favourite.

I view it as Thiago's only chance is to knock GSP out standing which I think is going to be difficult considering the level of fighter St. Pierre is. How well GSP controls the distance is going to make it hard for him to get inside which is where he is stronger.

I disagree. His kicking form is phenomenal and his boxing has improved significantly in his last few fights. He takes a lot more damage than he needs to, but to say he's not technically very good is misleading to say the least.

Compared to St. Pierre stand-up it's not as technical. Thiago has always appeared to me as more of a brawler, but not a reckless one.

His leg kicks are going to be a pension for a counter takedown or a counter right hand to a takedown. And with the implication of St. Pierre's wrestling, I think Thiago is going to be a lot more tentative.

[Aaron]

hmmm...the whole argument of "technique" is kinda awkward....

from a pure muay thai standpoint, alves has bad technique ...however, very few brazilians have good MT technique, yet they are great strikers....what Alves has done is tightened up his ultra-aggressive style of Brazilian MT brawling w/ very untelegraphed kicks and improved boxing...he tucks his chin very well also

t's basically an entirely new form of striking...molded into one from others.

[KJ Brophy]

I am not sure yet on GSP and Alves I think that is a really close fight.

I think Mir/Lesnar is a easy fight to pick and it will play out like the first one. Lesnar tapping in the first round.